Tag Archives: Mozambique

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Makes Landfall in Northern Mozambique

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Kenneth made landfall in northern Mozambique on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 40.5°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) north of Pemba, Mozambique.  Kenneth was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth continued to intensify until it made landfall near Quissanga, Mozambique.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was 28.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.5.  Those indices mean that Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was capable of causing significant regional damage.  In addition to wind damage Kenneth will cause a significant storm surge at the coast.  Locally heavy rain will produce flooding over parts of northern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will weaken when it moves inland over northern Mozambique.  However, It will take several days for the circulation around Kenneth to spin down.  The circulation could linger in that area for several days.  If that happens, persistent rainfall will exacerbate flooding of rivers and streams, which would hinder rescue and recovery efforts.

Elsewhere over the southern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Lorna was swirling well to the east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lorna was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 86.1°E which put it about 950 miles (1530 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Lorna was moving toward the east-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Major Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Brings Strong Wind, Rain to Comoros

Major Tropical Cyclone Kenneth brought strong wind and rain to the Comoros on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was located at latitude 11.3°S and longitude 42.8°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) north of the Comoros.  Kenneth was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth intensified rapidly on Tuesday into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  A small circular eye appeared at the center of circulation on infrared satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (215 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Kenneth was 20.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.1.  Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was capable of causing major damage.

The southern half of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth passed over northern Grande Comore (Njazidja).  Mitsamiouli and Mbeni were likely to have experienced winds to hurricane/typhoon force.  Strong winds may have also affected the capital, Moroni.  Major wind damage may have occurred in those areas.  Heavy rain falling on steep slopes may cause flash flooding.  Easterly winds blowing up the slopes would have enhanced rainfall and the greatest risks for flooding were on the eastern sides of the mountains.  Those easterly winds may have also generated a significant storms surge along the northeast coast of Grande Comore (Njazidja).

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Kenneth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Kenneth is likely to intensify more while it moves across the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will move north of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Kenneth a little to the south of due west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will make landfall on the north coast of Mozambique between Ibo and Mocimboa da Praia in about 18 hours.  Kenneth is likely to be a strong tropical cyclone at the time of landfall.  It will be capable of causing major wind damage and a storm surge at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will also drop heavy rain when it moves inland over northern Mozambique and it could cause additional flooding in that region.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Lorna moved gradually farther away from Diego Garcia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lorna was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 84.8°E which put it about 855 miles (1380 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Lorna was moving toward the east at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Develops North of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth developed north of Madagascar on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 47.2°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east-northeast of the Comoros.  Kenneth was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kenneth organized rapidly on Tuesday.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern side of the center of circulation.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated that an eye might be forming at the center of Kenneth.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing outside the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (210 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Kenneth will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge.  The winds are weak near the core of the ridge and vertical wind shear will be limited as long as Tropical Cyclone Kenneth stays under the central part of the ridge.  Kenneth is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Once an eye forms, Tropical Cyclone Kenneth could intensify rapidly and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth will move north of a subtropical ridge during the next several days.  The ridge will steer Kenneth a little to the south of due west during that time period.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth could pass near the Comoros in about 24 hours.  Kenneth could be the equivalent of a major hurricane by that time.  It could cause major wind damage and a significant storm surge at the coast.  Kenneth could also drop heavy rain, which could cause flash flooding along the steeper slopes.   Tropical Cyclone Kenneth could make landfall on the coast of northern Mozambique within 48 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Lorna developed east of Diego Garcia on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lorna was located at latitude 9.7°S and longitude 82.9°E which put it about 715 miles (1155 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Lorna was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Drops Heavy Rain on Mozambique and Zimbabwe

Tropical Cyclone Idai dropped heavy rain on parts of Mozambique and Zimbabwe on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 32.5°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Mutare, Zimbabwe.  Idai was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Although the wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Idai decreased steadily on Friday, the circulation remained very well organized.  An inner rainband wrapped most of the way around a well defined center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Idai.  The strongest bands were occurring in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the core of the circulation were still generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Idai dropped heavy rain from the coast of central Mozambique near Beira where Idai caused significant damage westward to the eastern Zimbabwe.  Persistent heavy rain was likely causing flooding along some of the rivers in central Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe.  Tropical Cyclone Idai is forecast to continue to move toward the west-northwest and heavy rain is likely to spread over more of Zimbabwe.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Makes Landfall in Mozambique

Strong Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall in Mozambique very close to Beira on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 34.5°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) northwest of Beira, Mozambique.  Idai was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Idai moved directly over Beira, Mozambique.  The eye moved over Beira.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) at the time of landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles from the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Idai was 19.2 at the time of landfall.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.0.  Tropical Cyclone Idai was capable of causing very serious wind damage.  Both sides of the eyewall which contained the strongest winds moved over Beira.  The relatively slow rate at which Idai was moving would have resulted in a prolonged period of strong winds, which would have increased the potential for damage.

Clockwise rotation around Tropical Cyclone Idai would have produced strong southerly winds when Idai approached Beira.  Those winds would have pushed water into the mouth of the Rio Pungoe which is on the western side of Beria.  There could have been an enhanced storm surge of 12 to 18 feet (4 to 6 meters) in that area.  Beira is one of the largest cities in Mozambique and it has a population of over half a million people.  Idai could have cause very serious damage around Beira.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move toward the west-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Idai will move farther inland over Mozambique and it will eventually move over Zimbabwe.  Tropical Cyclone Idai will weaken steadily as it moves inland, but it will drop heavy rain over central Mozambique and over parts of Zimbabwe.  The heavy rain could cause flooding along portions of Rio Pungoe and Rio Buzi as well as other parts of central Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

Major Tropical Cyclone Idai Nears Mozambique

Major Tropical Cyclone Idai neared the coast of Mozambique on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Beira, Mozambique.  Idai was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Idai strengthened back into the equivalent of a major hurricane after it completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday.  An eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) appeared on satellite images after the remnants of the original inner eyewall weakened.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the large eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Idai.  Storms near the core of Idai were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Idai increased during the eyewall replacement cycle.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 155 miles (250 km from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Idai was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.6.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will remain in an environment favorable for intensification until it reaches the coast of Mozambique.  Idai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Idai could strengthen before it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move north of a subtropical ridge over southern Africa.  The ridge will steer Idai toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Idai will make landfall on the coast of Mozambique near Beira in less than 24 hours.  Idai will bring very strong winds and it will be capable of causing regional major damage.  Tropical Cyclone Idai will also drop heavy rain over parts of Mozambique and it will likely cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Idai strengthened into the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Mozambique Channel on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 490 miles (785 km) east-northeast of Beira, Mozambique.  Idai was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Idai intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday and then it appeared to begin an eyewall replacement cycle.  A rainband wrapped around the original eye and eyewall.  Convergence became concentrated on the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall began to dissipate.  The overall size of the circulation increased.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Idai was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.8.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Idai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Idai could strengthen further once the inner eyewall dissipates completely and the eyewall replacement cycle ends.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move around the southeastern part of a subtropical ridge over southern Africa.  The ridge will steer Idai on a course that is a little south of due west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Idai could reach the coast of Mozambique near Beira in less than 72 hours.  Idai could still be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Rapidly Intensifies Into Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Idai rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 43.2°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Maintirano, Madagascar.  Idai was moving toward the south at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Idai intensified rapidly on Sunday.  An eye was apparent on satellite imagery,  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Idai.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Idai was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.5.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two,  Idai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Idai could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move around the eastern end of a subtropical ridge over southern Africa. The ridge will steer Idai toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Idai could approach the coast of Mozambique in about four days.  Idai could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Forms Over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Idai formed over the Mozambique Channel on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 42.5°E which put it about 135 miles (220 km) west-northwest of Maintirano, Madagascar.  Idai was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Idai organized quickly on Saturday.  The inner portion of a rainband wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of the center of circulation.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Idai.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Idai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Idai will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.  Once the inner core is fully organized, Idai could strengthen rapidly and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Idai will move around the eastern end of a subtropical ridge over southern Africa.  The ridge will steer Idai back toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Idai could approach the coast of Mozambique in about four days.  Idai could be the equivalent of a major hurricane by that time.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond Brings Wind and Rain to Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Desmond brought wind and rain to Mozambique on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Desmond was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 36.3°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Conceicao, Mozambique.  Desmond was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond made landfall in Mozambique near Ponta Timbue on Monday.  Thunderstorms developed on the western side of the circulation where the winds were blowing toward the land.  Those thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain over parts of Mozambique.  The strongest winds were occurring along the coast of Mozambique and over the Mozambique Channel.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Desmond.  Wind speeds were slower over land.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move around the eastern end of a subtropical high pressure system over southern Africa.  The high will steer Desmond toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move farther inland over the Zambezi River toward southern Malawi.  Desmond will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the lower Zambezi River basin and flooding could occur in some locations.