Tag Archives: Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Desmond Forms Over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Desmond formed over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Desmond was located at latitude 21.3°S and longitude 39.0°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique.  Desmond was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone Desmond.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Desmond was very asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough just southeast of Africa was producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Desmond.   Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Desmond will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level trough is forecast to move eastward and the vertical wind shear could decrease.  Tropical Cyclone Desmond could strengthen when the shear decreases, if it is still over water.

Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move around the eastern end of a subtropical ridge in the middle levels over southern Africa.  The ridge should steer Desmond in a north-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Desmond will move toward Mozambique and it could make landfall within 36 hours.  However, there is another low pressure system near northern Madagascar.  If the circulations of the two low pressure systems interact, then Desmond could be pulled farther to the north.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 63.1°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Berguitta was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta continued to get better organized on Sunday.  An eye appeared intermittently at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by an elliptical ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Berguitta were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Berguitta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Berguitta will continue to strengthen and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is moving in a region where the steering winds are weak.  Berguitta moved little on Sunday.  A subtropical ridge south of Berguitta is forecast to steer the tropical cyclone slowly westward during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Berguitta will near the western end of the ridge in about two days and it is likely to move toward the southwest after that time.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could reach Mauritius within 72 hours.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Berguitta could move very close to Mauritius and La Reunion.  Berguitta could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.  It has the potential to cause major wind damage, a storm surge, heavy rain and floods.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean microwave images of Invest 99S depicted a structure that looked very much like a tropical cyclone.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Invest 99S was centered at latitude 15.1°S and longitude 41.6°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Lumbo, Mozambique.  Microwave satellite images showed a clear area at the center of circulation surrounded by broken ring of showers and thunderstorms.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the circulation and secondary bands of showers and thunderstorms existed in all quadrants of the circulation.  However, no official government agency is classifying the system as a tropical cyclone at the current time.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo Makes Landfall in Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Dineo made landfall on the coast of Mozambique near Massinga on Wednesday.  Dineo intensified prior to landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  Tropical Cyclone Dineo was capable of causing minor wind damage.  It may have produced a storm surge near and to the south of where the center made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo is producing locally heavy rain as it moves inland over Mozambique.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dineo was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 33.6°E which put it about 125 miles (205 km) west-northwest of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Dineo was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h.  (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981.

Even though it has moved inland the structure of Tropical Cyclone Dineo is still very well organized.  The remnants of the eye and the eyewall are still visible on satellite imagery.  There are several rainbands rotating around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dineo.  The strongest winds are occurring in thunderstorms in the bands that are still offshore over the Indian Ocean.  The thunderstorms near the center of Dineo are still generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the core of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo will continue to weaken slowly as it moves farther inland.  The atmospheric environment is favorable for a tropical cyclone.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  However, now that the core of Dineo is inland, it is away from the warm water of the Indian Ocean which fueled the tropical cyclone’s intensification.  So, Tropical Cyclone Dineo will spin down, but at a slower rate than occurs with some landfalling tropical cyclones.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Dineo toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Dineo could pass near Dindiza, Chigubo and Mapai in Mozambique.  Dineo could produce locally heavy rain when it moves over those areas.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo or its remnants could also bring locally heavy rain to parts of northern South Africa, southern Zimbabwe and eastern Botswana.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo Intensifies As It Nears Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Dineo intensified on Tuesday as it moved closer to Mozambique.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dineo was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east-northeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Dineo was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo intensified on Tuesday and it was on the verge of reaching the intensity of a hurricane/typhoon.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around a circular eye.  There was a break on the western side of the developing eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the eyewall.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms were rotating around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dineo.  Thunderstorms around the core of Dineo were generating upper level divergence which was transporting mass away from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo will move through a favorable environment until it reaches Mozambique.  Dineo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  The favorable environment will allow Tropical Cyclone Dineo to continue to intensify during the next 12 to 18 hours.  It will become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Dineo toward the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dineo is expected to make landfall on the coast of Mozambique north of Inhambane in less than 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  Dineo will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain when it moves into Mozambique.  Heavy rain could create the potential for flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo will also produce a storm surge along the coast.  The highest storm surge will occur south of where the center makes landfall as the clockwise rotation pushes water toward the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo Moves Toward Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Dineo started to move slowly toward Mozambique on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dineo was located at latitude 22.0°S and longitude 38.9°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) east-northeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Dineo was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Dineo became more organized on Monday.  A primary rainband wrapped tightly around the eastern side of the center of circulation.  Recent microwave satellite imagery hinted at the formation of an eye at the center of circulation and a broken eyewall around the developing eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the primary rainband.  Additional bands of thunderstorms developed in the eastern half of the circulation.  A few thunderstorms formed west of the center, but most of the bands in that part of the circulation consist of low clouds and showers.  There may be some drier air in the western part of the circulation and the drier air may be inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in that region.  The thunderstorms near the center of circulation are generating upper level divergence.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo will be moving through a favorable environment during the next 24 hours.  It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge centered over southern Africa will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some wind shear and they will limit upper level divergence on the western side of the circulation.  While the wind shear may slow the rate of intensification during the next 24 hours, Tropical Cyclone Dineo should strengthen on Tuesday.  Dineo could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it reaches the coast of Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo is near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it slowly toward the west-northwest.  That ridge is expected to continue to steer Tropical Cyclone Dineo toward the west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Eventually, the ridge is expected to get stronger and extend westward.  When that happens, the ridge could steer Dineo more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dineo could approach the coast of Mozambique north of Inhambane in 24 to 30 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches Mozambique.  It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Mozambique.  Dineo could also generate a storm surge at the coast when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone 05S Forms Over Mozambique Channel

A surface circulation organized quickly inside a low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone 05S.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center or Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 21.6°N and longitude 39.9°E which put it about 540 miles (870 km) northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 05S has a tight center of circulation, but the distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  Multiple bands of thunderstorms developed in the eastern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds are occurring in the bands of thunderstorms.  However, there are mainly showers and a few isolated thunderstorms in the bands in the western half of the circulation.  The thunderstorms in the bands east of the center of circulation are beginning to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will be moving through a favorable environment during the next several days.  It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Tropical Cyclone 05S is underneath an upper level ridge.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  There may be some drier air in the western half of the circulation and that is the only inhibiting factor in the environment around Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Given the mostly favorable environment Tropical Cyclone 05S is likely to intensify during the next day or two.  If an inner core becomes fully developed, then a period of rapid intensification may be possible.

Tropical Cyclone 05S is currently in an area of weak steering currents because of its position underneath the upper level ridge.  Some global models are indicating that a track toward the southwest could be possible if the tropical cyclone moves closer to the western portion of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 05S could move in the general direction of Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala Weakens Northeast of Madagascar

Thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala dissipated and it weakened as moved northeast of Madagascar.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT  on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Antsirañana, Madagascar.  Fantala was moving west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala reversed course again on Saturday and it is moving over the same part of the South Indian Ocean that it already crossed twice during the past few days.  The winds produced by Fantala mixed cooler water up to to the surface of the ocean during its previous passages over the same region.  The cooler water means that there is less energy available to power the circulation of Tropical Cyclone.  Although the winds continue to rotate around the center of circulation, there are no thunderstorms near the core of Fantala.  There are still several thunderstorms in rainbands farther to the east of the center of circulation.

If new thunderstorms do not develop around the core of the circulation, the winds will gradually spin down and the tropical cyclone will dissipate within a few days.  Upper level winds blowing from the west-northwest are also generating some vertical wind shear, which will make it more difficult for new thunderstorms to form.

A subtropical ridge southwest of Fantala is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fantala is forecast to pass north of Madagascar and move over the Seychelles.  It could be even weaker by the time it gets to the Seychelles.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala Stalls East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fantala moved into an area of weaker steering currents on Thursday and it stalled about 500 miles (800 km) east of northern Madagascar.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 56.7°E which put it about 515 miles (830 km) east of Antsirañana, Madagascar.  Fantala was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Although Fantala weakened slightly on Thursday, the structure of the inner core of the circulation remained fairly intact.  A thin ring of thunderstorms was wrapped around an that was obscured on conventional satellite imagery.  Other bands of thunderstorms spiraled around the eyewall.  The thunderstorms in the core of Fantala were generating upper level divergence to the north and east of the center of circulation.  It appears that drier air may be getting pulled into the eastern portion of the circulation outside the core of Fantala.  There only only isolated thunderstorms in the rainbands in that part of the circulation.

The environment is marginally favorable for intensification.  The upper level winds are light enough so there is only a moderate amount of vertical wind shear.  Fantala is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However, because Fantala is moving so slowly, it could mix cooler water to the surface which would reduce the energy available to the tropical cyclone.  In addition the drier air will also limit the supply of energy being transported into the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala has moved into an area where the steering currents are weak.  It may not move much during the next 24 hours.  A subtropical ridge is forecast to develop southwest of Fantala in a day or two.  When the subtropical ridge develops, it is expected to steer Fantala back toward the west again.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fantala could be approaching the northern part of Madagascar in 60 to 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 15S Forms Over the Mozambique Channel

A low level circulation developed enough organization on the eastern side of a cluster of thunderstorms over the Mozambique Channel to be classified as a tropical cyclone on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 15S was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 42.3° which put it about 110 miles east-southeast of Mogincual, Mozambique and about 200 miles northwest of Maintirano, Madagascar.  It was moving toward the south-southeast at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Southeasterly winds in the upper levels are creating vertical wind shear and most of the stronger thunderstorms are on the western side of the center of circulation.  However, the tropical cyclone is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and some intensification is possible.  If the upper level winds decrease, the more rapid intensification could occur.  A gradual intensification seems more likely over the short term.

A subtropical ridge of high pressure to the east of the tropical cyclone is steering it slowly to the south.  It is likely to move into a region of weak steering winds  between that ridge of high pressure and another ridge farther to the west.  As a result, the tropical cyclone could move slowly and erratically and even become stationary at times during the next day or two.  Eventually, a third ridge of high pressure is expected to develop to the north of the system and push it westward toward Madagascar.

The tropical cyclone could be a strong tropical storm or near hurricane intensity when it reaches Madagascar.  Some wind damage is possible, but the biggest threat appears to be from locally heavy rainfall and flooding.