Tag Archives: Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Intensifies to Near Hurricane/Typhoon Force

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro intensified to near hurricane/typhoon force on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 21.6°S and longitude 43.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Morombe, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro strengthened to near hurricane/typhoon force as it approached southern Madagascar on Sunday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alvaro’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next few hours hours before it makes landfall in southern Madagascar.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Alvaro will make landfall on the coast of southwest Madagascar north of Morombe in a few hours. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Bands in the eastern side of Alvaro’s circulation were already dropping heavy rain on parts of southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast north of Morombe.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro Forms over the Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro formed over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday morning. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 39.1°E which put it about 380 miles (610 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Alvaro was moving toward the east-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel intensified on Sunday morning and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. More thunderstorms formed around the center of Alvaro’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro. Bands in the western side of Alvaro’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the eastern half of Alvaro. The winds in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Alvaro were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Alvaro will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Alvaro’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Alvaro toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Alvaro will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar near Morombe on Monday. Tropical Cyclone Alvaro will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Spins West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 23.0°S and longitude 41.6°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west-northwest of Taliara, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning over the Mozambique Channel west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. Cheneso was starting to move away from cooler water that it mixed to the surface of the Mozambique Channel while it was stationary earlier this week. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Cheneso’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming again. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Storms near the core generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Cheneso.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the western end of an upper level ridge that is centered east of Madagascar. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cheneso’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the south. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will remain west of Madagascar. Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Cheneso could produce locally heavy rain over southern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

An upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southeast during the weekend. The trough will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Cheneso will move over cooler water when it moves southeast. A combination of more vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Cheneso to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Weakens West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso weakened west of Madagascar on Wednesday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 42.6°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) west-southwest of Morondava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was nearly stationary over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar for 36 hours. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere mixed cooler water to the surface of the Mozambique Channel. Cheneso extracted less energy from the cooler water and it weakened slightly. A ring of thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso weakened. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern part of the ring around the center. Other bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Cheneso’s circulation. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

A surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean will move southeast during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northwestern side of the high pressure system during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the southwest during the next day or so. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Bands in the eastern side of Cheneso’s circulation will drop locally heavy rain over western Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment favorable for intensification after it moves southwest of the cooler water it mixed to the surface. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the axis of an upper level ridge that stretches from Madagascar westward across southern Africa. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Strengthens to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west of Morondava, Madagascar. Cheneso was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around Cheneso’s circulation. A circular eye appeared to be developing at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Cheneso will be over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the axis of an upper level ridge that stretches from Madagascar westward across southern Africa. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will intensify during the next 36 hours. Cheneso could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Cheneso could be nearly stationary during much of Wednesday. The northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southwest in 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will remain near the west coast of Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern side of Cheneso’s circulation could continue to drop locally heavy rain over parts of the west coast of Madagascar. Heavy rain falling on saturated ground is likely to cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Moves over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso moved over the Mozambique Channel on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 42.5°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west of Morondava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso emerged over the Mozambique Channel after moving slowly toward the southwest across northern Madagascar during the past 4 days. Bands of thunderstorms were developing quickly over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Cheneso’s circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence again that pumped mass way from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge that stretches from the South Indian Ocean westward across southern Africa. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will intensify during the next 36 hours. Cheneso could intensify rapidly at times and it is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso slowly toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move gradually farther to the west of Madagascar. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern side of Cheneso’s circulation could continue to drop locally heavy rain over parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Hits Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso hit northern Madagascar on Thursday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 49.5°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of Sambava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso made landfall on the northern coast of Madagascar near Sambava early on Thursday. Cheneso strengthened prior to make landfall. It was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Cheneso was dropping heavy rain over parts of northern Madagascar on Thursday morning.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the southwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move southwest over northern Madagascar. Cheneso will weaken gradually as it moves over Madagascar, but it will continue to drop heavy rain in some places. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso could move over the Mozambique Channel in a few days. There is a chance that Cheneso could strengthen when it gets over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Depression Forms over Mozambique Channel

A tropical depression formed over the Mozambique Channel on Friday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 42.7°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Nacala, Mozambique. The tropical depression was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A tropical depression, also designated as Invest 97S, formed over the Mozambique Channel on Friday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of the depression’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical depression. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The winds are weak near the center of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical depression will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to a named tropical cyclone.

The tropical depression will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the southwest. On its anticipated track the tropical depression could approach the coast of Mozambique south of Nacala in 24 hours. The tropical depression will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mozambique during the weekend. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe Drops Rain on Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Gombe dropped rain on northern Madagascar on Tuesday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gombe was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 49.0°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west-northwest of Maroantsetra, Madagascar. Gombe was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe made landfall on the northeastern coast of Madagascar south of Ambohistralanana on Monday night. The circulation around Gombe exhibited much more organization prior to landfall. A well developed center of circulation was apparent on conventional and microwave satellite images. The center of Tropical Cyclone Gombe was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gombe. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation at the time of landfall. Tropical Cyclone Gombe weakened slowly after it made landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gombe toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move across northern Madagascar on Tuesday. Gombe could move over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. Tropical Cyclone Gombe will continue to drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it reaches the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. Gombe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gombe is likely to intensify over the Mozambique Channel. Gombe could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe Forms near Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Gombe formed near Madagascar on Monday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gombe was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east of Ambohitralanana, Madagascar. Gombe was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system near the northeast coast of Madagascar strengthened on Monday afternoon and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gombe. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Gombe’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Gombe. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles in the southwestern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Gombe. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the rest of Gombe’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Gombe could intensify during the next few hours. Gombe will weaken after it moves over northern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Gombe toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gombe will make landfall on the northeast coast of Madagascar south of Ambohitralanana during Monday night. The center could pass near Maroantsetra on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gombe could intensify again later this week when it moves over the Mozambique Channel.