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Tammy Strengthens to a Hurricane East of the Lesser Antilles

Former Tropical Storm Tammy strengthened to a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Tammy was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 58.6°W which put it about 165 miles (265 km) east-southeast of Martinique. Tammy was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. Hurricane Watches were in effect for Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St. Baarthelemy. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Martinique and Barbados.

U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA planes flying in former Tropical Storm Tammy found that Tammy had intensified to a hurricane on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Tammy. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Tammy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday morning.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Tammy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of the circulation.

Hurricane Tammy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the far eastern part of an upper level low over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Tammy is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Tammy will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Tammy could be near Guadeloupe on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Tammy is likely to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the central and northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash in some locations. Hurricane Tammy could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.

Tropical Storm Tammy Strengthens East of the Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Tammy strengthened east of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 55.1°W which put it about 465 miles (745 km) east of Guadeloupe. Tammy was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius.

A NOAA research plane found that Tropical Storm Tammy had strengthened during Wednesday night. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tammy’s circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Tammy. Bands in the western side of Tammy’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Tammy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Tammy.

Tropical Storm Tammy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tammy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the far eastern part of an upper level low over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tammy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are blowing from the east. The difference in wind direction between the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Tammy could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Tammy will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Tammy toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Tammy could approach the central and northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

Tropical Storm Tammy is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the central and northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash in some locations. Tropical Storm Tammy could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coasts of some of the islands.

Tropical Storm Fiona Brings Wind and Rain to the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Fiona brought wind and rain to the Leeward Islands on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 62.2°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Guadeloupe. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands and the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Dominica and for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Barahona, Dominican Republic.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Fiona on Friday night which caused Fiona to strengthen. Although there were more thunderstorms near the center of circulation, most of the thunderstorms were still occurring in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fiona. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The new thunderstorms near the center of Fiona generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Fiona.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Fiona. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could continue to strengthen gradually, but the wind shear will limit intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. Tropical Storm Fiona will continue to cause gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands during the next 12 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening. Fiona could be near the eastern end of the Dominican Republic by Sunday evening. There is a chance that Fiona could be a hurricane by that time.

Tropical Storm Fiona Approaches the Leeward Islands

Tropical Storm Fiona approached the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 60.3°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east of Guadeloupe. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Dominica and the portion of the coast from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo, Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Fiona was nearing the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fiona continued to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Fiona’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Fiona was moving under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Fiona.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could strengthen a little, but the wind shear will limit intensification during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona will move over the Leeward Islands on Friday evening. Fiona will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening.

Tropical Storm Fiona Prompts Watch for Puerto Rico

The potential effects of Tropical Storm Fiona prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 55.4°W which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Fiona continued to be affected by strong vertical wind shear on Thursday afternoon. The center of Fiona was surrounded by a swirl of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern edge of Fiona’s circulation. Tropical Storm Fiona was under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear was blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that start to develop. The vertical wind shear was causing the low level circulation around Tropical Storm Fiona to look a little less organized. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Fiona’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could weaken if the upper level winds get stronger. The upper level winds could be weaker when Fiona moves over the northeastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could approach the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. Fiona could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening.

Tropical Storm Fiona Prompts Warnings for Leeward Islands

A potential threat posed by Tropical Storm Fiona prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for some of the Leeward Islands. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 495 miles (800 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Fiona was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat and Anguilla. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

Tropical Storm Fiona was being affected by strong vertical wind shear on Thursday morning. The center of Fiona was surrounded by a swirl of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern edge of Fiona’s circulation. Tropical Storm Fiona was under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and the wind shear was blowing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that start to develop. In spite of the vertical wind shear, the low level circulation around Tropical Storm Fiona was still well organized. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Fiona’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could weaken if the upper level winds get stronger. The upper level winds could be weaker when Fiona moves over the northeastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could approach the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. Fiona could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Fiona could be southeast of Puerto Rico by Saturday evening.

TD 7 Strengthens to Tropical Storm Fiona, Watches Issued for Leeward Islands

Former Tropical Depression Seven strengthened to Tropical Storm Fiona on Wednesday evening and Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the Leeward Islands. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 52.0°W which put it about 650 miles (1045 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Fiona was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat and Anguilla.

Remotely sensed data gathered by satellites indicated that the circulation around former Tropical Depression Seven had strengthened on Wednesday evening and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Fiona. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Fiona was asymmetric. Almost all of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fiona’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the eastern half of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fiona. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fiona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fiona’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Storm Fiona could intensify if the upper level winds weaken.

Tropical Storm Fiona will move around the southern side of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fiona toward the west during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fiona could approach the Leeward Islands on Friday afternoon. Fiona could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Prompts Watches for Leeward Islands

A threat from Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for some of the Leeward Islands on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 49.3°W which put it about 840 miles (1350 km) east of the Leeward Islands. The potential tropical cyclone was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Saba and St. Eustatius.

The National Hurricane Center designated a tropical disturbance east of the Leeward Islands as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven on Friday morning in order to be able to issue watches for the system. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was still in the early stages of organizing on Friday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the western side of the tropical disturbance. There were few thunderstorms in the eastern side of the disturbance.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next several days. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The disturbance will move through a region where the winds will blow from the east at all levels in the troposphere. The winds near the surface could be stronger near the surface, which could cause some vertical wind shear in the lower levels. The shear might not be too strong and a tropical cyclone is likely to form during the next 48 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will approach the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday night. It could be near Puerto Rico by Sunday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was moving across central Cuba. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) northeast of Moron, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritis, Villa Clara, Ciego de Avila and Camaguey.

The center of Tropical Depression Fred was moving west-northwest across central Cuba on Friday morning. An upper level low centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico was causing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear and the increased friction over land were preventing Tropical Depression Fred from strengthening. The upper level low is forecast to weaken during the weekend and Fred could intensify to a tropical storm once the center moves past Cuba. Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean and it could move over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Fourteen Forms Over Western Caribbean

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 79.7°W which put it about 235 miles (375 km) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  The depression was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Honduras from the border with Nicaragua to Punta Castilla including the Bay Islands.

Satellite images on Thursday morning indicated that a center of circulation had developed within a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fourteen.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Fourteen was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and they were beginning to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Fourteen will strengthen during the next day or two.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will move around the southwester part of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  The depression will turn toward the northwest on Friday when it gets closer to the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Fourteen will pass near the coast of Honduras on Friday.  It will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.  The depression could drop heavy rain over eastern Honduras and flash floods will be possible.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean,, Tropical Depression Thirteen was speeding toward the northern Leeward Islands.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 52.0°W which put it about 750 miles (1205 km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda and Anguilla.

Potential Tropical Storm Prompts Warnings for Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands

A low pressure system that has the potential to organize into a tropical storm prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and many of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 53.7°W which put it about 585 miles (940 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.  It was moving toward the west at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was very broad and it stretched from the southwest toward the northeast.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the southwestern and northeastern ends of the circulation.  There were few thunderstorms or bands in the broad middle of the low pressure system.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) on the northern side of the circulation.  The winds in the southern half of the low pressure system were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The large broad circulation will contribute to a slow, gradual intensification.  If thunderstorms consolidate around a center of circulation and an inner core begins to form, then the system may be designated as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the potential tropical storm toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine could approach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday morning.  It could approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Wednesday night.  The large circulation means that Potential Tropical Nine will bring a prolonged period of gusty winds.  It could also drop heavy rain and cause flash floods on some islands.