Tag Archives: New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Josie Brings Wind and Rain to Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Josie brought wind and rain to Fiji on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Josie was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 177.4°E which put it about 105 miles (170 km) southwest of Suva, Fiji.  Josie was moving toward the east-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Josie formed within an area of thunderstorms that had persisted west of Fiji for several days.  A center of circulation developed within the area of thunderstorms and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Josie.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Josie was somewhat asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in a primary rainband east of the center of circulation,  The bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) east of the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Josie will move through an area somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Josie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move near an area where westerly winds are blowing in the upper levels and those winds may already be responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of stronger storms.  The upper level winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Josie could intensify slowly during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Josie is moving near the eastern end of a ridge which is steering Josie toward the east-southeast.  The westerly winds in the middle troposphere will continue to steer Tropical Cyclone Josie toward the southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Josie will pass south of Viti Levu.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Josie will move near Kadavu and Ono in about 12 hours.  Even though the center of circulation will pass south of Viti Levu, Tropical Cyclone Josie will drop heavy rain there and the potential for flash floods will exist.  Josie will also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Kadavu and Ono.

Tropical Cyclone 13P Develops Over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone 13P developed over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 13P was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 159.7°E which put it about 550 miles (885 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  It was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed within an area of showers and thunderstorms over the Coral Sea on Monday.  The strongest rainband extended from northeast of the center, south of the the center and then west of the center.  Additional rainbands were forming in other part of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 13P will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Tuesday.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough near the east coast of Australia is producing northerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  The core of Tropical Cyclone 13P is east of the strongest upper level winds, but the winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Despite the vertical shear, the tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 13P is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the south.  There is some variability in the guidance from the numerical models about the future strength of the ridge.  Some models do not strengthen the ridge much and those model predict that Tropical Cyclone 13P will move almost straight southward.  Other models increase the strength of the ridge and steer the tropical cyclone more toward the south-southwest.  A general motion toward the south or south-southwest seems most likely during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone 13P would pass west of New Caledonia, but it could move closer to the east coast of Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Hola Passes Near Iles Loyaute

Tropical Cyclone Hola passed near the Iles Loyaute (Loyalty Islands) on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hola was located at latitude 20.9°S and longitude 168.0°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia.  Hola was moving toward the southeast at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Hola exhibited signs of weakening on Friday.  The eye appeared and disappeared intermittently.  There were occasional breaks in the rings of thunderstorms around the intermittent eye.  The distribution of rainbands became more asymmetrical.  All of the stronger bands were south and east of the center of circulation.  The bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  An upper level trough off the east coast of Australia was producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were also causing moderate vertical wind shear and they may have tilted the upper portion of the circulation toward the southeast.

Tropical Cyclone Hola will weaken during the next few days.  Hola will initially pass over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear which will weaken Hola.  Tropical Cyclone Hola will also move over colder water when it moves farther to the south.  The colder water and vertical wind shear will cause the structure of Tropical Cyclone Hola to transition gradually to an extratropical cyclone during the next several days.

The upper level trough is pushing Tropical Cyclone Hola toward the southeast and a general southeasterly motion will continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hola will move away from the Iles Loyaute and New Caledonia.  Hola could approach northern New Zealand in a couple of days.

The strongest winds and heavy rain were occurring on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Hola.  Hola will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Iles Loyaute until it moves away.  It should have minimal impacts on New Caledonia.  Tropical Cyclone Hola could make landfall on the North Island of New Zealand in two or three days.  It could be a strong extratropical cyclone at that time and it could bring strong wind and heavy rain to parts of northern New Zealand.

Tropical Cyclone Hola Stalls Between Vanuatu and New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Hola stalled between Vanuatu and New Caledonia on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hola was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 165.5°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) west of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Hola was moving toward the south at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hola weakened slightly while it move slowly between Vanuatu and New Caledonia.  The small eye was no longer visible on satellite images.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in the core of the circulation.  Most of the bands of showers and thunderstorms were in the eastern half of the circulation.  There were fewer thunderstorms west of the center of circulation.  The wind field exhibited a similar asymmetrical distribution.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) in the eastern half of the circulation and about 100 miles (160 km) in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hola will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification on Friday.  Hola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause increasing vertical wind shear and the shear could become strong enough to inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Hola could intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours, but it will begin to weaken when the shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Hola is near the western end of a subtropical ridge and it was in a region where the steering winds were weak on Thursday.  The upper level trough east of Australia will start to steer Hola toward the southeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Hola could approach the Iles Loyaute (the Loyalty Islands) within 24 hours.  Hola will likely still be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Hola Brings Wind and Rain to Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Hola brought strong winds and heavy rain to Vanuatu on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hola was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 165.5°E  which put it about 180 miles (290 km) west of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Hola was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hola intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  A very small circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Rainbands were revolving around the core of the Tropical Cyclone Hola.  The strongest rainbands were occurring in the eastern side of the circulation.  The rainbands were weaker in the western half of Hola.  Storms around the core of the circulation were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Hola was fairly small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Hola will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 24 to 36 hours.  Hola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving under a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Hola is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Hola was moving around the northwestern end of a subtropical ridge which was steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest.  Hola is forecast to turn more toward the south when it rounds the end of the ridge on Thursday.  It could move toward the southeast when it moves farther south.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hola could approach New Caledonia and the Iles Loyaute in a little over 24 hours.

Rainbands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Hola brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Vanuatu on Wednesday.  Wind and rain could increase over New Caledonia and the Iles Loyaute by Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Hola Develops Over Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Hola developed over Vanuatu on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hola was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 168.1°E which put it near Ambrym and about 110 miles (180 km) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Hola was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms northwest of Fiji moved slowly westward toward Vanuatu during the past few days.  The system was designated Tropical Cyclone Hola when a center of circulation developed in the area of storms on Tuesday.  Thunderstorms formed on all sides of the center, but there were more thunderstorms on the western side of the center.  Bands of showers and storms were beginning to revolve around the core of the circulation.  The storms near the center were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hola will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next two or three days.  Hola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds over that area are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Hola should intensify during the next 48 to 72 hours.  Rapid intensification could occur once the core of the circulation is fully organized.  Hola could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Hola could become the equivalent of a major hurricane within three days.

Tropical Cyclone Hola is moving near the northwestern end of a subtropical ridge which is steering Hola toward the west-southwest.  A slow motion toward the southwest is forecast during the next day or so while Hola rounds the northwestern end of the ridge.  Tropical Cyclone Hola will turn more toward the southeast after it rounds the subtropical ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Hola will move near Ambrym, Malekula, Paama, Lopevi, and Epi.  Hola is forecast to pass west of Port Vila, but it could be near New Caledonia and the Iles Loyaute in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Hola will strengthen as it moves slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  The stronger tropical cyclone will produce gusty winds and it will drop heavy rain over the central parts of Vanuatu.  Heavy rain will fall over Espiritu Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Malo, Ambrym, Paama, Lopevi, Tongoa, Epi, Emae, the Shepherd Islands, Nguna, Emao, and Efate.  Locally heavy rain could create the potential for floods in some of those locations.

Strong Tropical Cyclone Gita Moves Toward New Caledonia

Strong Tropical Cyclone Gita moved toward New Caledonia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gita was located at latitude 21.6°S and longitude 173.7°E which put it about 510 miles (825 km) east of Noumea, New Caledonia.  Gita was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Gita was the equivalent of a major hurricane.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Gita is similar to that of an annular hurricane.  There is a large eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring.  The circulation is symmetrical and several rainbands are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 165 miles (270 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Gita will be moving through an environment that is favorable for strong tropical cyclone for several more days.  Gita will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Tropical Cyclone Gita is moving under the western end of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak.  There is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical cyclones with a symmetrical annular structure often are able to maintain their intensity and Tropical Cyclone Gita could stay strong or weaken very slowly during the next 24 hours.  Gita will get close to the western end of the upper level ridge in a day or so and stronger upper level winds could cause more vertical wind shear at that time.

The ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Gita toward the west.  Gita is likely to move more toward the southwest when it approaches the western end of the ridge.  It is likely to reach the western end of the ridge in about 48 hours, and Gita will turn more toward the south at that time.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gita is expected to pass south of Vanuatu.  Gita could approach the Iles Loyaute and New Caledonia in about 36 hours.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Gita Hits Tonga, Threatens Southern Fiji

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Gita hit the most populated islands in Tonga on Monday and moved west to threaten the southernmost islands of Fiji.  Gita brought strong winds and very heavy rain to Tongapatu and Eau on Monday and there were reports of damage from Tonga.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gita was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 178.9°W which put it about 300 miles (480 km) southeast of Suva, Fiji.  Gita was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Gita was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Gita remains a powerful tropical cyclone.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring.  A rainband has wrapped most of the way around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gita and there are indications that a second, concentric eyewall is forming.  Other rainbands are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core are producing strong upper level divergence which is pumping away mass and is allowing the tropical cyclone to remain very strong.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gita is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 48.8.  Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Gita is capable of causing significant damage.

Tropical Cyclone Gita will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones for another 24 to 36 hours.  Gita will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  If a second concentric eyewall forms, then an eyewall replacement cycle could produce a fluctuation in intensity.  Gita could weaken when the inner eyewall dissipates.  The circulation could strengthen again if the outer eyewall remains intact and starts to contract around the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gita is moving north of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west.  A general motion toward the west is expected to continue for another 48 to 72 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gita could move over the southernmost islands of Fiji on Tuesday.  The strongest part of Gita could affect Vatoa, Ono-i-lau, Tuvana-i-colo and Tuvana-i-ra.  Gita could bring destructive winds, locally heavy rain and storm surges to the southernmost parts of Fiji.  Tropical Cyclone Gita could approach southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia in about three days.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Gita Threatens Tonga

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Gita posed an increasing threat to Tonga on Sunday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Cyclone Gita was located at latitude 21.7°S and longitude 173.2°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east of Nuku’Alofa, Tonga.  Gita was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Gita was the equivalent of a major hurricane.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Gita is very well organized.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in that eye.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gita.  Storms in the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away in all directions.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 165 miles (270 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Gita is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 39.6.  Those indices indicate that Gita will be capable of causing major damage when it moves over Tonga on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Gita will be moving through an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Gita will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  The favorable environment could allow Tropical Cyclone Gita to intensify more before it reaches Tonga.

Tropical Cyclone Gita is moving north of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west.  A general motion toward the west is expected to continue for another two or three days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Gita could reach Tonga within 12 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Gita will be capable of causing major wind damage when it reaches Tonga.  Gita will also drop heavy rain and flooding is possible.  Winds blowing the wind toward the coast could also produce significant storm surges in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gita Strengthens Near Niue

Tropical Cyclone Gita strengthened on Saturday as it passed just to the east of Niue.  Outer rainbands on the western side of Gita were bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to Niue.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gita was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 168.8°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east-southeast of Niue.  Gita was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Gita was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Gita became more symmetrical on Saturday.  Several rainbands wrapped completely around the center of circulation.  A clear area appeared at the center of circulation on visible satellite images, which indicated that an eye was forming.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Other rainbands were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gita.

Tropical Cyclone Gita will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Gita will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Tropical Cyclone Gita is moving around the eastern end of an upper level low, but the upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  There is drier air to the southwest of Gita, but it does not seem to be entering the circulation of the tropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone Gita will continue to intensify and it could strengthen rapidly.  Gita could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

The upper level low is steering Tropical Cyclone Gita toward the south.  Gita will turn toward the southeast in about 12 to 24 hours.  When Gita reaches the southern side of the upper low, it will move toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gita will pass just to the southeast of Niue.  Gita could approach Tonga in about 36 hours and it could the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.