Tag Archives: Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Nora Makes Landfall in Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Nora made landfall on the coast of Queensland near Pormpuraaw on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 141.8°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south of Kowanyama, Australia.  Nora was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nora moved across the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and made landfall near Pormpuraaw earlier on Saturday.  A weather station at Kowanyama, which is south of the original landfall recorded a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h).  The station also recorded five inches (128 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Nora is forecast to move southward near the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria for another 12 to 18 hours.  Nora is then expected to move westward across the southern end of the Gulf of Carpentaria.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was maintaining a warning for the portion of the coast from Pormpuraaw to Karumba.  A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Karumba to the border between Queensland and the Northern Territory.  In addition to bringing gusty winds to the coast of Queensland, Tropical Cyclone Nora will drop locally heavy rain.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Nora Strengthens Over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Nora strengthened over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 140.0°E which put it about 125 miles (205 km) west of Weipa, Australia.  Nora was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Karumba to Mapoon including Weipa and Mornington Island.  A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Weipa to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Nora strengthened on Friday as it entered the northern portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria.  An eye appeared intermittently at the center of circulation.  A band of stronger thunderstorms wrapped intermittently around the formative eye and the strongest winds were blowing in the band of thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nora will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Nora could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nora is moving near the western end of a mid-level ridge which is steering Nora toward the south.  A general motion toward the south is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Nora could approach the coast of Queensland between Kowanyama and the mouth of the Gilbert River in 24 to 36 hours.  Nora could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of northwestern Queensland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Marcus was weakening off the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 107.5°E, which put it about 770 miles (1045 km) west of Carnarvon, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the south-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nora Develops Rapidly North of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Nora developed rapidly north of Australia over the Arafura Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 10.0°S and longitude 136.8°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north of Nhulunbuy, Australia.  Nora was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A center of circulation organized quickly on Thursday in an area of thunderstorms over the Arafura Sea and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nora.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and northern side of the center of circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speeds were increasing in response.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Warnings for the portions of the coast from Elcho Island to Cape Shield including Cape Wessel and from Pormpuraaw to Thursday Island.  A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pormpuraaw to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland including Mornington Island.

Tropical Cyclone Nora will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Nora is likely to intensify rapidly and it is likely to become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Nora could become the equivalent of a major hurricane within 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nora was moving through an area where steering winds are weak and it was moving slowly toward the east.  A subtropical ridge east of Australia is expected to strengthen.  The ridge is forecast to steer Nora more toward the south in 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nora is expected to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria toward the coast of Queensland.  Nora could strengthen into a dangerous tropical cyclone.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Marcus continued to churn west of Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 106.0°E which put it about 555 miles (895 km) west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the south at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus Brings Wind and Rain to Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Marcus brought wind and rain to Darwin, Australia on Friday night.  A weather station at Darwin Harbor recorded a wind gust to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 130.7°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Darwin, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Hotham to Mitchell Plateau including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.  A Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cockatoo Island to Mitchell Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus intensified as it approached Darwin.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Marcus will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge over Australia is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are creating some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it moves over the Timor Sea on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus was being steered toward the southwest by the ridge over Australia and the southwesterly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated path the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus will move across the Timor Sea on Saturday.  Marcus could approach the north coast of Western Australia east of Kalumburu in about 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus Strengthens North of Australia

A Tropical Low north of Australia strengthened on Thursday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Marcus.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 132.6°E which put it about 190 miles (320 km) northeast of Darwin, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Maningrida to Daly River Mouth including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.  A watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Daly River Mouth to the Mitchell Plateau.

The circulation inside a Tropical Low north of Australia became better organized on Thursday which led the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to designate the system as Tropical Cyclone Marcus.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and storms were developing in other parts of the circulation.  Storms near the core of Marcus were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus will be moving through an environment mostly favorable for intensification.  Marcus will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  The only factor that could inhibit intensification is the proximity of Tropical Cyclone Marcus to the northern coast of Australia.  If the center of Marcus remains north of the coast, then the tropical cyclone is likely to intensify.  If the center moves over land, then a slow weakening would occur.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is currently moving toward the southeast, but a subtropical ridge over Australia will turn Marcus toward the southwest when it approaches the coast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Marcus will approach the northern coast of Australia in about 24 hours.  It is likely to move across the Cobourg Peninsula and over the Van Diemen Gulf.  Tropical Cyclone Marcus could be near Darwin in about 36 hours.  Marcus is forecast to continue southwest over the Timor Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northernmost portions of the Northern Territory of Australia.  The center will pass close to Darwin and it could bring gusty winds and drop heavy rain over that city.

Tropical Low Forms North of Australia

A Tropical Low formed north of Australia late on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Low as located at latitude 9.2°S and longitude 130.9°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) north of Milikapiti, Australia.  It was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (45 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Milingimbi to Daly River Mouth including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A center of circulation developed in an area of showers and thunderstorms north of Australia late on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a Tropical Low.  The circulation was still organizing.  A short band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center.  Other short rainbands were developing in other parts of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were just beginning to generate upper level divergence.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will mover over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Westerly winds in the upper levels will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  However, the shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  The Tropical Low is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  After that time the intensity will be influenced by how much of the circulation is over Australia.

The Tropical Low is being steered to the east by westerly winds north of Australia.  Those winds are forecast to weaken and the Tropical Low is expected to turn south toward the coast of Australia.  A subtropical ridge over Australia is expected to turn the Tropical Low toward the southwest in a day or so.  On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could be near the northern coast of Australia in 24 to 36 hours.  It could pass near the Cobourg Peninsula, Melville Island and Bathurst Island.  The Tropical Low could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the area near Darwin.

Tropical Cyclone Frances Develops North of Western Australia

An area of low pressure northwest of Western Australia developed into Tropical Cyclone Frances on Thursday.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Frances was located at latitude 11.0°S and longitude 128.3°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) north-northeast of Kalumburu, Australia.  Frances was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The organization of Tropical Cyclone Frances improved significantly during the past 24 hours.  A well organized center of circulation developed at the surface.  A primary rainband wrapped about two-thirds of the way around the southern and western sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in the outer portions of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.  Frances is a fairly small tropical cyclone and winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Frances will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Frances will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C while is moves across the Timor Sea.  An upper level ridge east of Tropical Cyclone Frances is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Vertical wind shear may be the reason that the primary rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center.  However, the vertical shear does not appear to be strong enough to significantly affect the upper level divergence.  Frances is likely to intensify during the next day or so.  Eventually, Tropical Cyclone Frances will move into an area where there are strong upper level northwesterly winds.  A significant increase in vertical wind shear should weaken Frances when that occurs.

A subtropical ridge to the east of Frances is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest.  A general motion toward the west-southwest is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Frances is forecast to stay north of the coast of Western Australia.  However, any southward deviation of the track could bring stronger winds closer to the coast.

Tropical Low Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Australia

A Tropical Low pressure system brought wind and rain to northern Australia on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.1°S and 131.5°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) east-northeast of Darwin, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (12 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of the Tropical Low is not very well organized.  Many of the thunderstorms are occurring in the outer portions of the circulation.  There are mostly showers, and only a few thunderstorms, near the center of circulation.  There are a few rainbands near the periphery of the circulation, but there is not a well formed core at the center.  The poor organization is preventing the Tropical Low from generating much upper level divergence and as a result the surface pressure has changed little during the past 24 hours.

A significant portion of the circulation of the Tropical Low is over land and that is inhibiting development of the system.  In addition, an upper level ridge to the east of the Tropical Low is producing northerly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which is also inhibiting development.  The Tropical Low is moving toward the west-southwest and the center is forecast to move over the Timor Sea.  If the center of circulation moves over the Timor Sea, it will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  More energy from the water could offset the effects of the vertical wind shear and the Tropical Low could intensify into a tropical cyclone.

A subtropical ridge east of the Tropical Low is steering the system toward the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of the Tropical Low will move near the northern coast of Australia.  If the center emerges over the Timor Sea, then the system could intensify into a tropical cyclone.  If the center remains over land, then further development will not occur.  In either case the Tropical Low will bring gusty winds and heavy rains to the northern coastal regions of the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Blanche Strengthens Near Coast of Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Blanche strengthened on Sunday as it moved over the Timor Sea toward the coast of Western Australia.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Blanche was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 128.2°E which put it about 100 miles (165 km) north of Wyndham, Australia.  Blanche was moving toward the southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Blanche became more organized on Sunday.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped about two thirds of the way around the southern and western portions of the center.  The band has the appearance of a partial eyewall.  The strongest winds are occurring in the band near the center.  The thunderstorms are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the west and southeast of the Tropical Cyclone Blanche.  The upper level divergence allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Blanche will be over the Timor Sea for a few more hours.  It will be in an environment that is favorable for intensification during that time.  Blanche will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Blanche is producing northerly winds which are blowing toward the tropical cyclone.  The winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear was not strong enough to prevent intensification on Sunday.  Tropical Cyclone Blanche could intensify a little more before it makes landfall.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Blanche toward the southwest and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Blanche will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia northwest of Wyndham in a few hours.  Blanche will bring gusty winds and some storm surge to the coast.  It will cause locally heavy rain and the potential for flooding as it moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Blanche Forms Northwest of Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Blanche formed northwest of Darwin, Australia over the Timor Sea late on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Blanche was located at latitude 11.9°S and longitude 130.3°E which put it about 55 miles (85 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia.  Blanche was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (12 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

An area of low pressure moved north of the Northern Territory over the Arafura Sea during the past few days.  The low exhibited enough organization for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to designate it as a tropical low.  The center of the low moved across Melville Island and Bathhurst Island earlier today.  More and stronger thunderstorms began to form closer to the center after it moved over the Beagle Gulf and into the Timor Sea.  The increased convection and organization prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to name the system Tropical Cyclone Blanche.

Although the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Blanche became better organized today, it is still somewhat asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in a band south and west of the center or circulation.  Bands north and east of the center contain mainly lower clouds and showers.  An upper level ridge to the east of Blanche is producing northerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  The vertical wind shear appears to have increased during recent hours and the upper level divergence to the east of the center has been reduced.  Part of the lower level circulation appears to becoming exposed on the most recent visible satellite images.

Tropical Cyclone Blanche will be moving through an environment that contains both positive and negative factors.  Blanche will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the upper level ridge to the east of Blanche is producing moderate vertical wind shear, which appears to have stalled intensification for now.  If the wind shear remains moderate, then Blanche will not strengthen.  If the wind shear increases, it could blow the upper portion of the circulation away from the lower part and the tropical cyclone would weaken.  On the other hand if the wind shear decreases, then Tropical Cyclone Blanche could intensify a little more.  There is a great deal of uncertainty about the future intensity of Blanche.

Blanche is moving around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  This general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Blanche will move across the Timor Sea and make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Wyndham and Kalumburu in 24 to 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Blanche could bring some gusty winds, but the primary risk will be locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.