Tag Archives: Okinawa

Typhoon Saola Near Okinawa

The core of Typhoon Saola moved near Okinawa on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Saola was near latitude 26.2°N and longitude 128.2°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) south of Okinawa.  Saola was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Saola became more well organized on Friday.   The primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation.  A large eye was surrounded by a broken ring of showers and thunderstorms.  Low clouds and showers were scattered throughout the large eye.  Several other bands of showers and storms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Saola.  The rainbands were weaker on the northwestern side of Typhoon Saola and there appeared to be cooler, drier air on that side of the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Typhoon Saola could be near its maximum intensity.  Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However Typhoon Saola is near the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase on Saturday.  Typhoon Saola could strengthen a little more during the next six to twelve hours, but it will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Typhoon Saola is moving around the western end of a ridge which is steering Saola toward the north.  When Typhoon Saola reaches the westerly winds of the middle latitudes, those winds will turn Saola toward the east-northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Saola will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Typhoon Saola will be near southern Kyushu in about 12 hours and the center could pass near Tokyo in about 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Saola Strengthens, Moves Toward Okinawa

Tropical Storm strengthened on Thursday as it moved closer to Okinawa.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Saola was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 129.4°E which put it about 350 miles (570 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Saola was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Saola exhibited more organization in recent hours.  For much of the past several days many of the showers and thunderstorms were in a single primary rainband that wrapped around the outer part of the circulation.  There were few showers or storms near and to the north of the center of circulation.  A broken ring of showers and thunderstorms began to develop around the center during the past few hours.  The ring could represent the initial formation of an eyewall.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms also began to form outside the core of Tropical Storm Saola.

Tropical Storm Saola will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The winds will be similar in all levels of the atmosphere and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Saola will intensify on Friday and it could become a typhoon.  After about 24 hours Tropical Storm Saola will reach the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase.  More wind shear will start to weaken Saola.

Tropical Storm Saola was moving the western end of a ridge which is steering the tropical storm toward the north-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for about another 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saola will approach Okinawa in about 24 hours.  When Saola nears Okinawa, it will encounter the westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Those winds will turn Saola toward the northeast.  Tropical Storm Saola will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands.

Tropical Storm Saola Develops West of Guam

Tropical Storm Saola developed west of Guam on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Saola was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 134.8°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) northwest of Yap.  Saola was moving toward the west-northwest at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The core of the circulation of Tropical Storm Saola became more well organized on Tuesday.  The center of circulation strengthened and more thunderstorms developed close to the center  Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of Tropical Storm Saola.  Many of the showers and storms formed southwest of the center.  There were fewer showers and storms northeast of the center.  The storms near the core of Saola began to produce upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Saola will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Saola is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which is inhibiting the intensification of Tropical Storm Saola.  The upper level winds are forecast to weaken which would cause the wind shear to decrease.  The decreased wind shear should allow Tropical Storm Saola to intensify during the next several days and it could eventually strengthen into a typhoon.

The upper level ridge has been steering Tropical Storm Saola toward the west-northwest.  An upper level trough east of Asia is forecast to weaken the ridge.  When the ridge weakens,Tropical Storm Saola will turn more the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saola will remain east of the Philippines and Taiwan.  Tropical Storm Saola could approach Okinawa in about 72 hours.  Saola could be a typhoon when it approaches Okinawa.

Typhoon Lan Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Lan intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Lan was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 130.3°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Lan was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Typhoon Lan has a large and powerful circulation.  There is a large circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye has a diameter of 60 miles (96 km) and it is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Typhoon Lan is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 330 miles (530 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Lan is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 37.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 57.8.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Lan is capable of causing widespread major damage.

Typhoon Lan will move through an environment that will be favorable for further intensification during the next 24 hours.  Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  An upper level ridge centered east of Lan is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  There are also southerly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere and thus there is not much vertical wind shear.  The southerly winds in the upper levels are actually enhancing the upper level divergence to the northeast of Typhoon Lan.  Warm water and little vertical wind shear will allow Typhoon Lan to strengthen during the next day or so.  When Lan moves farther north, it will reach the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  The vertical wind shear will increase at that time, and Typhoon Lan will start to weaken.

Typhoon Lan is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the north.  As Typhoon Lan moves farther toward the north, it will begin to move toward the north-northeast.  When Lan reaches the upper level westerlies on Sunday, it will turn more toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Lan will pass east of Okinawa and the Ryuku Islands on Saturday.  Typhoon Lan will approach Honshu in about 48 hours.

Typhoon Lan will still be a large powerful typhoon when it approaches Honshu.  Lan will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and very heavy rainfall.  Flash floods could occur when Typhoon Lan moves across Japan.

Typhoon Lan Heads North and Strengthens

Typhoon Lan headed northward and strengthened on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Lan was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 130.0°E which put it about 550 miles (885 km) south-southeast of Okinawa.  Lan was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Lan strengthened into a large powerful typhoon on Thursday.  A big circular eye developed at the core of Typhoon Lan.  The eye was not perfectly clear.  There was a small area of convection at the center of the eye and there was a clear moat around that area.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the typhoon.  Lan is a very large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out up to 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out up to 305 miles (490 km) from the center

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Lan was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 46.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 63.3.  The circulation of Typhoon Lan is almost as large as the circulation of Hurricane Sandy was when Sandy hit the U.S. in 2012.

Typhoon Lan will be moving through an environment favorable for further intensification.  Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through and area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Lan could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next day or two.

Typhoon Lan is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the north.  Lan is likely to continue to move toward the north on Friday.  The typhoon will be affected by westerly winds when it moves farther north.  Those winds will cause Typhoon Lan to move more toward the north-northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Lan could pass southeast of Okinawa in 24 to 36 hours.  Lan could approach Honshu within three days.

Lan Strengthens to a Typhoon East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Lan strengthened east of the Philippines on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated it a typhoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Lan was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 132.4°E which put it about 515 miles (830 km) east of the Philippines.  Lan was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Lan became much more well organized on Tuesday.  Several long rainbands developed in the circulation and other smaller bands formed in the periphery of the typhoon.  The circulation of Typhoon Lan was circular and symmetrical.  Thunderstorms near the core of Lan began to generate strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.  The upper level divergence allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.  Lan is a large typhoon.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Lan will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Typhoon Lan will move through an area where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next several days.  Typhoon Lan will continue to strengthen and there could be a period of rapid intensification after a well formed eye develops at the center of circulation.

Typhoon Lan was in an area where the steering currents were weak and it moved little on Tuesday.  An upper level ridge north of Lan blocked the typhoon from moving northward.  A weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge and the models are forecasting that Typhoon Lan will move northward during the rest of this week.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Lan will remain east of the Philippines.  Lan could be southeast of Okinawa in three or four days.

Tropical Storm Lan Develops Northwest of Palau

Tropical Storm Lan developed northwest of Palau on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lan was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 132.1°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Koror, Palau.  Lan was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A more distinct center of circulation developed within Tropical Storm Lan, but the low pressure system was still in the process of organizing.  The low level center of circulation of Lan was at the end of a long rainband that extends from the western periphery around the southern and eastern parts of the tropical storm.  That low level center appeared to be on the northern side of a much larger counterclockwise rotation.  Most of the stronger showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the long rainband.  A few new, thinner bands of showers and thunderstorms seemed to be forming inside the long rainband to west of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lan will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Lan is producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  There was some vertical wind shear, but it was not strong enough to prevent the intensification of Tropical Storm Lan.  Tropical Storm Lan is likely to intensify more slowly while the circulation organizes.  Once the center of circulation become tighter, then Lan could intensify more quickly.  A period of rapid intensification could occur, if Lan becomes a typhoon and an eye develops.

The ridge north of Lan and the counterclockwise flow to its south are combining to steer the tropical storm toward the west.  Numerical models are indicating that a weakness will develop in the ridge north of Tropical Storm Lan.  If that happens, then the steering current could weaken for 12 to 24 hours and Tropical Storm Lan might not move much.  If the break in the ridge becomes more pronounced, then Tropical Storm Lan could start to move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lan is expected to remain east of the Philippines, but the tropical storm could move closer to the northern Philippines if the forecast weakness in the ridge does not occur.

Typhoon Talim Strengthens West of Okinawa, Doksuri Moves Closer to Vietnam

Powerful Typhoon Talim strengthened west of Okinawa on Wednesday, while Typhoon Doksuri moved closer toward Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 124.6°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) west of Okinawa.  Talim was moving toward north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Talim evolved into a large powerful typhoon on Wednesday.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) developed at the center of Typhoon Talim.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Talim.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were producing upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak over the core of Talim, but there are stronger westerly winds north of the typhoon.  Talim could strengthen some more during the next 24 hours.  However, the stronger upper level winds will increase the vertical wind shear on Friday and the typhoon will start to weaken when that happens.

Typhoon Talim is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the typhoon toward the north-northwest.  Typhoon Talim will move north on Thursday as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  The westerly winds north of Talim will turn the typhoon toward the northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach Kyushu in two or three days.

Tropical Storm Doksuri strengthened on Wednesday as it moved closer to Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 112.2°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation of Doksuri became much more organized on Wednesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be developing.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolved around the core of Doksuri.  Thunderstorms round the core were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Doksuri will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification on Thursday.  Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge over eastern Asia is producing easterly winds which are causing some vertical wind shear over Doksuri.  The wind shear may slow intensification, but it will not stop it.

The ridge north of Doksuri is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Doksuri is forecast to pass south of Hainan Island.  Typhoon Doksuri could approach the coast of Vietnam in a little over 24 hours.  Doksuri could bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Typhoon Talim Nears Ryuku Islands

Typhoon Talim neared the Ryukyu Islands late on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Ishigaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A large circular eye formed at the center of Typhoon Talim on Tuesday.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The entire circulation became much more circular and symmetrical.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Talim will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Talim is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Talim is producing easterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are not as strong as the were 24 hours ago and the vertical wind shear has decreased.  Typhoon Talim is likely to intensify further during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Talim is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the northwest.  Talim is expected to turn toward the north as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  In 24 to 48 hours Talim will begin to be affected by westerly winds from the middle latitudes.  Those winds will cause Typhoon Talim to turn toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim will move across the Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday.  It looks like the center and strongest part of Typhoon Talim will move between Ishigaki and Okinawa.  Typhoon Talim will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.  The core of Typhoon Talim is forecast to pass west of Okinawa before it turns northeast toward the larger islands of Japan.

Elsewhere in Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Doksuri was slowly intensifying as it moved west of the Philippines.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Doksuri was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Doksuri became more organized on Tuesday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center or circulation.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence.  Tropical Storm Doksuri will be moving through a favorable environment.  Doksuri will move over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and through and area where the upper level winds are not too strong.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is likely to intensify and it could eventually strengthen into a typhoon.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is forecast to continue moving  toward the west.  On its anticipated track Doksuri could be near Hainan Island in 48 hours and it could approach the coast of Vietnam in about three days.

Typhoon Noru Threatens Southwestern Japan

Typhoon Noru posed an increased threat to southwestern Japan as it slowly moved closer on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Noru was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 131.3°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south-southeast of Kagoshima, Japan.  Noru was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Although Noru is still a powerful and dangerous typhoon, it is not quite as well organized as it was several days ago.  A very large eye with a diameter of 95 miles (150 km) is at the center of circulation.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounds the eye.  There are breaks on both the eastern and western sides of the eyewall.  A broad rainband wraps around the southern and eastern sides of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Noru are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the typhoon.  There are few showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern quadrant and there may be drier air in that part of Typhoon Noru.

Winds to typhoon force extend out about 40 miles (65 km/h) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 185 miles (295 km/h) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Noru is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.1

Typhoon Noru will move through an environment that may be somewhat favorable for intensification.  Noru will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northwest of Noru is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the typhoon.  Those winds are creating moderate vertical wind shear.  The typhoon could also pull in drier air on the northwestern side of the circulation.  Even though the environmental factors are mixed, some intensification may be possible during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Noru is approaching the western end of a subtropical ridge which has been steering the typhoon toward the west.  Noru is forecast to slow as the steering currents weaken.  Typhoon Noru is forecast to turn slowly northward during the next 24 hours.  In about 48 hours westerly winds in the middle latitudes will begin to carry the typhoon more quickly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Noru could approach the northern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  It could bring strong winds to Amami-O-Shima.  The center could pass near Yaku-Shima and Tanega-Shima during the weekend.  In a little over two days Typhoon Noru could reach southwestern Kyushu.  Typhoon Noru has the potential to bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of southwestern Japan during the next few days.  The heavy rain could also cause flash floods.