Tropical Storm Sergio brought rain to Baja California on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located at latitude 26.8°N and longitude 112.8°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) southwest of Santa Rosalia, Mexico. Sergio was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the west coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the east coast of Baja California from Bahia San Juan Bautista to Mulege, Mexico.
Tropical Storm Sergio was weakening as it approached Baja California. An upper level trough was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Sergio. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were in the process of blowing the middle and upper portions of the circulation northeast of the surface circulation. A combination of strong vertical wind shear and passage over mountains on Baja California will case Tropical Storm Sergio to weaken quickly.
Tropical Storm Sergio will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Baja California and northern Mexico. The greatest risk from Sergio is the potential for the locally heavy rain to cause flash floods. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio could enhance rainfall in southeastern New Mexico, West Texas, and Oklahoma during the weekend.
Tropical Depression Bill moved northward across north Texas on Wednesday and brought heavy rain to parts of Texas and Oklahoma. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Bill was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 97.3°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) north-northwest of Dallas, Texas. Bill was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h). There were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) in some thunderstorms. The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.
Bill still has a well organized circulation at the surface and throughout the troposphere. There is still a warm core in the middle troposphere and divergence in the upper levels. The upper level divergence pumped out the same amount of mass as converged in the lower levels and the surface pressure remained constant on Wednesday. Some drier air is wrapping around the southern part of the circulation and most of the rain is falling north and east of the center. The slow movement of Bill has generated significant amounts of rain and flooding is occurring in some parts of Texas and Oklahoma. A few thunderstorms have also produced damaging wind gusts.
Bill is expected to turn toward the northeast as is moves around the western end of a high pressure system centered off the southeast coast of the U.S. It will move slowly across Oklahoma on Thursday and across Arkansas on Friday before moving up the Ohio River Valley during the weekend.
Tropical Storm Bill continued to move farther into Texas after making landfall near Matagorda Island on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 97.0°W which put it about 45 miles (70 km) north of Victoria, Texas. Bill was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were winds gusts to 50 m.p.h. (85 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. The strongest winds were occurring primarily in a rainband over the Gulf of Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Oconnor to San Luis Pass, Texas.
The circulation around Bill remains well organized and most of the rain is falling north and east of the center. The circulation will slowly spin down as it moves farther away from the Gulf of Mexico and its supply of moist air is reduced. Bill is expected to move north and then turn northeast as it moves around the western end of a high pressure system centered off the coast of the southeastern U.S. The greatest risk will be from locally heavy rain falling on saturated ground in north Texas and Oklahoma. Flooding may occur in some locations as a result of the heavy rain. Some of the moisture associated with the tropical storm could be transported over the Ohio River Valley later this week.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified a low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Bill. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 94.2°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east-southeast of Port OConnor, Texas and about 155 miles (250 km) south-southeast of Galveston, Texas. Bill was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (85 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay to High Island, Texas.
Bill formed as a result of the interaction between a broad surface low pressure system and an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms began to form near the center of circulation on Monday afternoon and the structure of the system changed to a more tropical cyclone like pattern. The thunderstorms near the center began to warm the middle and upper troposphere and create a warm core. The thunderstorms became substantial enough to generate upper level divergence from the core of the circulation and NHC classified it as Tropical Storm Bill. Bill is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 29°C. The vertical wind shear over the system decreased on Monday and Bill has a few hours during which it could intensify before it makes landfall in Texas.
An upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. is steering Bill northwestward toward the coast of Texas and that motion is expected to continue. Bill is expected to make landfall in Texas on Tuesday. Although Bill will bring some wind when it makes landfall, heavy rainfall will be the biggest hazard. Heavy rain on top of wet soils will create the potential for new flooding in some locations, especially in Texas and Oklahoma. Winds blowing toward the coast will also create some water level rises and Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories have been issued for portions of the coast of Texas and Louisiana.