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Tropical Storm Fred Strengthens on Approach to Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened as it approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday morning. At 8:30 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 28.7°N and longitude 85.6°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida. Fred was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

A reconnaissance plane sampling Tropical Storm Fred on Monday morning found that Fred was intensifying. Satellite and radar images showed that Tropical Storm Fred was developing a structure that is typical of tropical storms. Radar images also showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the center of Fred and a small eye might be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Fred continued to be asymmetrical. The strong thunderstorms were around the center of circulation and in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were also in the eastern half of Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds in the much of western half of Fred were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will make landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida between Apalachicola and Panama City in a few hours. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida. Thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred could produce tornadoes.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Grace was passing south of Hispaniola and Tropical Depression Eight was slowly getting better organized east of Bermuda.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 70.9°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Jamaica.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 62.8°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (505km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Fred Gets a Little Stronger

Tropical Storm Fred got a little stronger on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 85.9°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Panama City, Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened gradually on Sunday night. Upper level divergence pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the minimum surface pressure decreased to 999 mb. The decrease in pressure generated more force and the wind speed increased to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Fred remained asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern side of Fred. The strongest winds were also occurring on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of Fred. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday afternoon. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to six feet (1.8 meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Grace weakened to a tropical depression as it passed south of Puerto Rico and Tropical Depression Eight formed east-northeast of Bermuda. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 68.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 33.2°N and longitude 62.7°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east-northeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Nestor Speeds Toward Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Nestor sped toward northwest Florida on Friday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center designated a strong low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Nestor on Friday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 355 miles (570 km) southwest of Panama City, Florida.  Nestor was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, Mississippi and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown, Florida.  A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, Florida.

Tropical Storm Nestor exhibited an asymmetrical structure that is commonly seen in late season tropical storms over the Gulf of Mexico.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Nestor.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The tropical storm force winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Nestor.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of the circulation.  The winds in the western half of Nestor were mostly less than tropical storm force.

Drier air was being pulled around the western side of Tropical Storm Nestor.  In addition, an upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The combination of the drier air and the vertical wind shear was responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and strong winds in the eastern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Nestor will move through an environment only marginally favorable for further intensification during the next 12 hours.  Nestor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is plenty of energy in the upper part of the Gulf of Mexico to support intensification.  However, the drier air and wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Nestor will start a transition to an extratropical cyclone on Saturday.  Nestor could strengthen somewhat during the extratropical transition, but it could be over land before that occurs.

The upper level trough over the Western Gulf of Mexico will steer Nestor quickly toward the northeast during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nestor could make landfall on the coast of northwest Florida between Panama City and Apalachicola.  Nestor will bring gusty winds to northern Florida on Saturday.  Strong southerly winds on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Nestor will push water toward the coast and a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) will occur around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Nestor could drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Florida, southeast Alabama, southern Georgia and South Carolina.  Tropical Storm Nestor will make landfall near where Hurricane Michael did so much damage in 2018.  Recovery efforts have been slow in that area and Nestor could set back the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Michael.

Hurricane Michael Makes Landfall in Northwest Florida

Powerful Hurricane Michael made landfall in Northwest Florida Wednesday afternoon.  The center of Hurricane Michael officially made landfall between Panama City and Mexico Beach, Florida.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 85.5°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southeast of Panama City, Florida.  Michael was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 919 mb.

Hurricane Michael intensified rapidly right up to landfall on the Gulf Coast.  The minimum surface pressure decreased from 933 mb to 919 mb in the six hours prior to landfall.  With a maximum sustained wind speed of 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) Hurricane Michael was at the top end of Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Michael is the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on that portion of the Gulf Coast and it was one of the most intense hurricanes to make landfall anywhere along the coast of the U.S. during the month of October.

Even though Hurricane Michael is moving inland, a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Suwanee River to Chassahowitzka, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Atlantic Coast from Fernandina Beach, Florida to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida.

Winds to hurricane force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Michael at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 33.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.4.  Hurricane Michael will cause regional significant damage.

Tyndall Air Force Base reported a wind gust of 119 m.p.h. (191 km/h).  The Florida State University Panama City Campus reported a wind gust of 116 m.p.h. (187 km/h).   The Panama City Treatment Plant reported a wind gust of 94 m.p.h. (151 km/h).

The coast along the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges.  The winds were pushing water toward the coast in the eastern half of the circulation of Hurricane Michael.  Some locations could have a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters).  There have already been reports of damage due to storm surge.

An upper level trough will steer Hurricane Michael toward the northeast.  Michael will weaken as it moves inland, but it will carry hurricane force winds over northeastern Florida, extreme southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia.  The center of Hurricane Michael will pass between Dothan, Alabama and Tallahasse, Florida.  it will move toward Albany, Georgia and then pass south of Macon, Georgia.  Michael will move across South Carolina and North Carolina as a tropical storm before exiting the U.S. near Norfolk, Virginia.

Hurricane Michael will cause widespread power outages and numerous outages are already occurring in northwest Florida.  Michael will also produce locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur as it moves inland.  Wind and rain will disrupt efforts in South Carolina and North Carolina to recover from the effects of Hurricane Florence.

One of the most unusual aspects of Hurricane Michael was that it intensified rapidly right up until it made landfall in northwest Florida.  In the past most major hurricanes weakened while they approached the coast along the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Those hurricanes encountered drier air and more vertical wind shear and they weakened.  The Sea Surface Temperatures in the northern Gulf of Mexico is 2°C to 3°C warmer than normal and that may have contributed to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael before landfall.  Hurricane Camille in 1969 also intensified right up until it made landfall in Mississippi.  However, Camille occurred in August, while Hurricane Michael occurred in October.

Powerful Hurricane Michael Nearing North Florida

Powerful hurricane Michael was nearing north Florida on Wednesday morning.  Michael intensified rapidly to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale during the overnight hours.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 86.3°W which put it about 90 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida.  Michael was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Alabama-Mississippi border and from Suwanee River to Chassahowitzka, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Atlantic Coast from Fernandina Beach, Florida to Surf City, North Carolina.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Mouth of the Pearl River and from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

Hurricane Michael intensified rapidly during the past 12 hours.  An eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms near the core of Hurricane Michael are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly to 933 mb.

Winds to hurricane force extend out about 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) from the center of Hurricane Michael.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 185 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Michael is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.0.  Hurricane Michael is capable of causing regional significant damage.

Hurricane Michael is stronger than any other hurricane to hit north Florida in the historical record.  Michael is similar in intensity to what Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.  Hurricane Michael is bigger than Charley was in 2004.

An upper level trough over the Central U.S. and a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean are combining to steer Hurricane Michael toward the north.  The trough will turn Michael toward the northeast when it reaches the coast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Michael will make landfall near Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida in about six hours.

Hurricane Michael will bring destructive winds to the coast of north Florida.  The strongest winds will be near the center and east of the center.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) will occur east of where the center of Michael makes landfall.  The coast of the northeast Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges and significant damage will occur.

The center of Hurricane Michael will move between Dothan, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida.  It will pass near Albany, Georgia and then move south of Macon, Georgia.  The center of Michael could move near Columbia, South Carolina and then it could exit the East Coast of the U.S. near Norfolk, Virginia.

Michael will bring hurricane force winds to northeast Florida, extreme southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.  There will be widespread power outages.  Winds to tropical storm force will occur in South Carolina and North Carolina.  Hurricane Michael will drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland.  The wind and rain will disrupt efforts to recover from the effects of Hurricane Florence in South Carolina and North Carolina.

Michael Strengthens to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a major hurricane on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 86.4°W which put it about 290 miles (470 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  Michael was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwanee River, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Alabama-Mississippi border, from Suwanee River to Chassahowitzka, Florida and from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina on the Atlantic Coast.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Mouth of the Pearl River, from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida and from South Santee, River South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The inner core of Hurricane Michael tightened on Tuesday afternoon.  The diameter of the eye decreased from 30 miles (50 km) to 22 miles (35 km).  The ring of thunderstorms around the eye tightened around the smaller eye and the strongest winds were closer to the center of circulation.  Storms around the core of Michael were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease from 965 mb to 957 mb during the past six hours.

Winds to hurricane force extend out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Michael.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Michael is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.7.  Hurricane Michael is capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Michael will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  Michael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough over the Central U.S. is producing westerly winds which are blowing toward the top of Hurricane Michael, but those winds are not causing enough vertical wind shear to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Michael could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Michael is moving between a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the upper level trough over the Central U.S.  Those two weather systems are steering Michael toward the north and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Michael will make landfall near Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida early on Wednesday afternoon.  The upper level trough will steer Michael more toward the northeast after it makes landfall.  The center of Michael is likely to move between Dothan, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida and it could pass near Albany, Georgia.

Hurricane Michael will bring strong winds to northwest Florida, extreme southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.  There will be wind damage and widespread power outages could occur.  The coast of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges.  Hurricane Michael will produce a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) at some points along the coast.  Michael will drop locally heavy rain.  Although Hurricane Michael will weaken when it moves inland, it will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to South Carolina and North Carolina.  Hurricane Michael will hinder efforts in those states to recover from the effects of Hurricane Florence.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Makes Landfall in Northwest Florida

Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northwest Florida late on Monday afternoon.  According to the National Hurricane Center the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto officially made landfall near Laguna Beach, Florida.  At 5:00 p.m. the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 85.9°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west-northwest of Panama City, Florida.  Alberto was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Aucilla, River, Florida to the border between Florida and Alabama.

Subtropical Storm Alberto weakened slowly as it approached the coast of northwest Florida.  Several factors contributed to the weakening of Alberto.  Drier air spiraled into the core of the circulation.  The drier air inhibited the development of taller thunderstorms in the eastern and southern quadrants of the circulation.  Most of the stronger storms developed north and west of the center of circulation.  Daytime heating of the land made the atmosphere more unstable and the instability contributed to the development of thunderstorms in rainbands in those parts of Alberto.  Subtropical Storm Alberto also mixed cooler water to the surface as it moved slowly toward the coast of Florida.  The Sea Surface Temperature near the coast was about 26°C before Subtropical Storm Alberto arrived.  However, the layer of warmer water was very thin.  The winds caused by Alberto mixed the water in the upper levels of the Gulf of Mexico.  The mixing brought cooler water to the surface and the Sea Surface Temperature cooled to near 24°C.  The cooler water meant there was less energy to support the circulation around Subtropical Storm Alberto.

The circulation of Subtropical Storm Alberto will weaken slowly as it moves inland.  Winds blowing water toward the coast will continue to produce a storm surge of 3 to 4 feet (1 to 1.3 meters) east of the center of circulation for another 12 to 24 hours.  A large surface high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will steer Subtropical Storm Alberto slowly toward the north during the next several days.  Locally heavy rain could produce flooding as Alberto moves northward.  Flood Watches have been issued for areas between the Gulf Coast and the Lower Ohio River Valley.  Flood Watches have also been issued for places as far east as the Carolinas and Virginia.  The risk of flooding is even greater for locations that already received heavy rain from previous weather systems.