Tag Archives: Philippines

Tropical Storm Trami Develops West of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Trami developed west of the Marianas on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Trami was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 140.8°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) northwest of Guam.  Trami was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression 28W strengthened on Friday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Trami.  An inner band of thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of the circulation were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Trami.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the core of Trami were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Trami will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  Trami will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Trami will continue to intensify and it could become a typhoon during the next 24 hours.  A period of rapid intensification is possible once the inner core is fully developed.  Tropical Storm Trami could become the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next few days.

Tropical Storm Trami will continue to move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Trami in a general west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Trami could be southeast of Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands in four or five days.  It could be a powerful typhoon at that time.

Tropical Depression 28W Forms Over the Marianas

Tropical Depression 28W formed over the Mariana Islands on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression 28W was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 144.8°E which put it about 15 miles (25 km) east-northeast of Guam.  It was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Rota, Saipan and Tinian.

Tropical Depression 28W was still organizing on Thursday.  A distinct center of circulation formed in an area of thunderstorms near the Marianas.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed around the circulation.  The strongest rainbands were forming in the eastern half of the circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also forming in the western half of the circulation but there were fewer strong thunderstorms in that half of the tropical depression.  Storm closer to the center of circulation were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression.

Tropical Depression 28W will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The tropical depression will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression 28W will intensify during the next few days.  It is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday and it could intensify into a typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Depression 28W will move around the southern side of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days.  The ridge will steer the depression in a general west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track the depression could be southeast of Okinawa in four or five days and it is likely to be a typhoon at that time.

Typhoon Mangkhut Makes Landfall West of Hong Kong

Typhoon Mangkhut made landfall west of Hong Kong on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 111.0°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) east-southeast of Yulin, China.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Typhoon Mangkhut made landfall on the coast of China near Yangjiang on Sunday.  The maximum sustained wind speed was near 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  There were reports that strong winds blew out windows in high rise buildings in Hong Kong.  There were strong gusty winds along the coast between Hong Kong and Yangjiang.  Strong winds blowing water toward the coast also produced a storm surge along that section of the coast.  The highest surge occurred just to the east of where the center made landfall.

Typhoon Mangkhut will drop heavy rain over Zizhiqu, Zhaungzu and Guangxi provinces while it moves farther inland.  Mangkhut will weaken slowly as it moves slowly across southern China.  The locally heavy rain could cause flash floods, especially in regions of steeper terrain.  Reports of damage and casualties caused when Typhoon Mangkhut move across northern Luzon were still coming in.

Typhoon Mangkhut Approaches Southern China

After causing significant destruction over northern Luzon, Typhoon Mangkhut approached southern China on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 114.4°E which put it about 130 miles (205 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

The inner core of Typhoon Mangkhut was disrupted when it moved across the northern end of Luzon.  The inner eyewall weakened and a larger ragged eye was at the center of the typhoon.  Recent visible satellite images seemed to show an inner rainband wrapping more tightly around the center of circulation and the inner core of Typhoon Mangkhut could be reorganizing.  A smaller eye could be redeveloping at the center of circulation.

Even though it has weakened since yesterday, Typhoon Mangkhut has a very large circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 350 miles (565 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mangkhut is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 28.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Index (HWISI) is 45.0.  Typhoon Mangkhut is capable of causing widespread serious damage.

Typhoon Mangkhut is moving southwest of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon quickly toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut will pass south of Hong Kong in a few hours.  Mangkhut will make landfall on the coast of south China near Yangjiang in about 12 hours.  Typhoon Mangkhut will bring strong gusty winds to southern China.  It will cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.  Mangkhut will also drop heavy rain and it will cause flash floods.

Tropical Storm Damrey Forms West of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Damrey formed west of the Philippines on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Damrey was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 116.4°E which put it about 615 miles (990 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Damrey was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

An area of low pressure slowly organized as it moved through the Philippines during the past several days.  A center of circulation developed and bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and started to revolve around the core of the low pressure system.  The Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Damrey.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Damrey is still organizing.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of the circulation.  Storms in the core of Damrey began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm and allowed the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Damrey will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Damrey will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature will be near 28°C.  An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Damrey is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Damrey will continue to intensify and it could become a typhoon in 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level ridge north of Damrey is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and a general westerly motion is forecast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Damrey will move toward Vietnam.  Damrey could approach the coast of Vietnam in less than 48 hours.  Damrey could be a typhoon when it gets to Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Lan Develops Northwest of Palau

Tropical Storm Lan developed northwest of Palau on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lan was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 132.1°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Koror, Palau.  Lan was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A more distinct center of circulation developed within Tropical Storm Lan, but the low pressure system was still in the process of organizing.  The low level center of circulation of Lan was at the end of a long rainband that extends from the western periphery around the southern and eastern parts of the tropical storm.  That low level center appeared to be on the northern side of a much larger counterclockwise rotation.  Most of the stronger showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the long rainband.  A few new, thinner bands of showers and thunderstorms seemed to be forming inside the long rainband to west of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lan will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Lan is producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  There was some vertical wind shear, but it was not strong enough to prevent the intensification of Tropical Storm Lan.  Tropical Storm Lan is likely to intensify more slowly while the circulation organizes.  Once the center of circulation become tighter, then Lan could intensify more quickly.  A period of rapid intensification could occur, if Lan becomes a typhoon and an eye develops.

The ridge north of Lan and the counterclockwise flow to its south are combining to steer the tropical storm toward the west.  Numerical models are indicating that a weakness will develop in the ridge north of Tropical Storm Lan.  If that happens, then the steering current could weaken for 12 to 24 hours and Tropical Storm Lan might not move much.  If the break in the ridge becomes more pronounced, then Tropical Storm Lan could start to move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lan is expected to remain east of the Philippines, but the tropical storm could move closer to the northern Philippines if the forecast weakness in the ridge does not occur.

Tropical Storm Pakhar Forms East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Pakhar formed east of Luzon on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Pakhar was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 124.7°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Pakhar was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A center of circulation developed on the eastern edge of a cluster of thunderstorms east of Luzon on Thursday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Pakhar.  The circulation of Pakhar is still in the early organizational stages.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are occurring west of the center of circulation.  An upper level ridge north of Pakhar is producing easterly winds which are blowing across the circulation.  Those easterly winds are probably responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms on the western side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Pakhar will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  The easterly winds in the upper levels are causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Pakhar will weaken when it moves across Luzon.  After Pakhar moves out over the South China Sea, it will move back over water where the SST is near 30°C.  The forecast suggests that there could be less vertical wind shear at that time and Pakhar has a chance to intensify into a typhoon when it moves away from the Philippines.

Pakhar is being steered westward by a subtropical ridge north of the tropical storm.  Pakhar is forecast to turn more toward the northwest when it crosses Luzon.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pakhar will reach the coast of Luzon near Baler in 12 to 18 hours.  Pakhar is forecast to continue moving toward the northwest and it could make another landfall in China west of Hong Kong in about three days.  However, there is more uncertainty about the future track of Pakhar after the tropical storm exits Luzon.

Tropical Storm Pakhar could bring heavy rain to Luzon and cause flooding in some locations.  If Tropical Storm Pakhar intensifies over the South China Sea and makes landfall west of Hong Kong as a typhoon, it could seriously affect the efforts to recover from damage caused by Typhoon Hato which hit that same area a few days ago.

Powerful Typhoon Sarika Makes Landfall in Luzon

Powerful Typhoon Sarika made landfall in Luzon near Baler on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 122.3°E which put it near Baler, Philippines and about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of Manila.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 941 mb.

Sarika is a powerful, well organized typhoon.  It has a circular eye surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Additional rainbands are rotating around the core of Sarika.  The core of Typhoon Sarika is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Typhoon Sarika was intensifying rapidly until it made landfall.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Sarika is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  These indices indicate that Typhoon Sarika is capable of causing regional major wind damage.  Typhoon Sarika will also generate a storm surge along the coast of Luzon north of the eye where the wind will push water toward the coast.  Sarika will also produce heavy rain over northern Luzon which will create a risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

A subtropical ridge is steering Typhoon Marika toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track across Luzon the center of Typhoon Sarika will pass near San Jose City,  Baguio and Dagupan.  The center of Sarika could emerge over the South China Sea near the Lingayen Gulf.  The core of Typhoon Sarika will move across the Sierra Madre Mountains and the Cordillera Central.  Where winds blow up the slopes of the mountains, rising motion will be stronger and the rainfall will be heavier.  The mountains will also disrupt the airflow in the lower part of Sarika’s circulation and the typhoon will weaken.

It could take the center of Typhoon Sarika about 12 hours to move across Luzon.  The environment of the Sea China Sea will  be favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature is warm and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If the core of the circulation remains reasonably intact, then Typhoon Sarika could intensify again while it moves across the South China Sea.  Sarika could eventually move near Hainan Island and into northern Vietnam in a few days.

Typhoon Sarika Near Catanduanes Island, Threatens Luzon

The center of Typhoon Sarika is located near Catanduanes Island and Sarika poses a serious threat to Luzon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Sarika was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 124.8°E which put it about 280 miles (455 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Sarika was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Sarika is well organized.  An eye has appeared at times on conventional and microwave satellite imagery.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eye and strong thunderstorms are occurring in the eyewall.  Additional, well formed rainbands are rotating around the core of the circulation.  The convection around the core is generating well developed upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Typhoon Sarika is moving through a very favorable environment.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Sarika will continue to intensify as long as the center stays over the water and it could intensify rapidly now that the circulation is well organized.

A subtropical ridge north of Sarika is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Sarika will remain north of Catanduanes Island.  It will pass just to the north of Daet and Labo on Saturday.  The center of Typhoon Sarika could be near or just to the north of the Polillo Islands in 12-16 hours.  Sarika could make a landfall near Baler on Luzon in 18-24 hours.

Sarika is a well organized intensifying typhoon.  It could bring strong winds to portions of northern Luzon.  Typhoon Sarika will also bring very heavy rain and create the potential for flash floods and mudslides.  Sarika will generate a storm surge in places where the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Intensifying Tropical Storm Nida Nears Northern Philippines

Tropical Storm Nida intensified on Saturday as it slowly approached the northern portion of Luzon in the Philippines.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC) the center of of Tropical Storm Nida was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 123.8°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.  Nida was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Nida has become increasingly well organized during the past 24 hours.  A primary rainband wraps about two thirds of the way around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  Additional spiral bands of thunderstorms are developing outside the core of the circulation.  Rising motion associated with the convection is generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Nida is moving through an environment that is very favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 31°C.  Nida is beneath an upper level ridge where the upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  Very warm SSTs and little wind shear will allow the circulation of Tropical Storm Nida to consolidate further and it should continue to intensify.  Nida could intensify rapidly once an eye starts to form at the center of circulation.  Tropical Storm Nida will move near or over the northeastern part of Luzon.  Interaction with land could slow or temporarily stop the intensification.  However, Tropical Storm Nida should intensify further after it move wests of the Philippines.

A subtropical ridge north of Nida is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nida could move over the northern part of Luzon during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Nida could approach the area around Hong Kong as a typhoon in about 48 hours.

The primary threats posed by Tropical Storm Nida to the Philippines are locally heavy rain and flash floods.  Tropical Storm Nida could generate very heavy rain in locations where the circulation causes the wind to blow up the slopes of mountains.  Heavy rain falling on steep terrain in those locations could also cause flash flooding.  Nida could be a typhoon by the time it reaches the part of China near Hong Kong.  Nida will be capable of producing some wind damage and storm surge in addition to heavy rain and flooding when it reaches the coast of China.