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Tropical Cyclone Fili Strengthens Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 162.5°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Fili was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fili’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Even though Tropical Cyclone Fili strengthened, some drier air appeared to be pulled into the western half of its circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fili. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Fili. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the western half of Fili.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move through an environment that will be mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fili’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. The drier air in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fili will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in that part of the circulation. The drier air will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Fili could intensify during the next 24 hours, but the drier air could limit strengthening.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fili toward the south-southeast during that time period. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili will pass west of New Caledonia during the next 36 hours. Rainbands in the eastern half of Fili will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Fili Develops Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fili developed over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 160.4°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Fili was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia strengthened on Monday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Fili. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fili but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Fili’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. The wind field around Tropical Cyclone Fili was also asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) in the northern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the southern half of Fili.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fili’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Fili is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Fili will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fili toward the south during that time period. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fili could move west of the northern end of New Caledonia within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby Brings Wind and Rain to New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Ruby brought wind and rain to New Caledonia on Monday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ruby was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 168.3°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) east of Noumea, New Caledonia. Ruby was moving toward the east-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby brought wind and rain to much of New Caledonia on Monday night. The center of Ruby made landfall on the northwest end of New Caledonia near Poum. Tropical Cyclone Ruby moved quickly toward the southeast and the center of circulation passed over most of the entire length of New Caledonia. The center exited the coast east of Noumea on Tuesday morning. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles in the northern half of Ruby’s circulation. So, Tropical Cyclone Ruby brought tropical storm force winds to much of New Caledonia. The winds in the southern half of Ruby’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force. Tropical Cyclone Ruby also dropped locally heavy rain over parts of New Caledonia. Clockwise rotation around Ruby would have caused the air to flow up the eastern slopes of mountains and the heaviest rain likely occurred in those areas. Locally heavy rain may have caused flash floods in some places.

An upper level trough east of Australia will steer Tropical Cyclone Ruby quickly toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Ruby will be northeast of New Zealand in 36 hours. The upper level trough will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ruby’s circulation. Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move over much cooler water when it moves toward the southeast. The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Ruby to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby Hits New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Ruby hit New Caledonia on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ruby was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 164.5°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) east of Koumac, New Caledonia and about 200 miles (320 km) northwest of Noumea. Ruby was moving toward the southeast at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ruby made landfall on the northwest end of New Caledonia near Poum on Monday. Ruby was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm when it made landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ruby’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ruby in the other quadrants. A band of heavy rain wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ruby.

An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds that will steer Tropical Cyclone Ruby toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Ruby will move over almost the entire length of New Caledonia. Ruby could maintain much of its intensity as it moves over New Caledonia because most of the circulation will be over water. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will bring strong winds and heavy rain to much of New Caledonia. Locally heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods. Strong winds and locally heavy rain could cause widespread electrical outages. Winds blowing water toward the east coast of New Caledonia could cause storm surges.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ruby rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ruby was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 159.3°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Ruby was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby rapidly intensified on Sunday. A small eye formed at the center of Ruby. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ruby’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Ruby was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Ruby’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ruby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ruby’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will intensify and it could continue to intensify rapidly. Ruby could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Ruby toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ruby could approach the northwestern part of New Caledonia in 24 hours. Ruby will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will bring strong winds and heavy rain to much of New Caledonia. Locally heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods. Strong winds and locally heavy rain could cause widespread electrical outages. Winds blowing water toward the east coast of New Caledonia could cause storm surges.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby Intensifies over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Ruby intensified over the Coral Sea on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ruby was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 158.6°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Ruby was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby intensified more rapidly over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Sunday morning. Microwave satellite images provided evidence that a small eye was forming at the center of Ruby’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ruby. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Ruby was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ruby will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ruby’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high pressure system will steer Ruby toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ruby could approach the northwestern part of New Caledonia in 36 hours. Ruby is very likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone Ruby will bring strong winds and heavy rain to much of New Caledonia. Locally heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone 03P formed over the Coral Sea southwest of the Solomon Islands on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03P was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 157.1°E which put it about 650 miles (1050 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone 03P was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a small low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Saturday into Tropical Cyclone 03P. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms also became more numerous in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around the tropical cyclone was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 03P will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 03P will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 03P will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03P could approach the northwestern part of New Caledonia in 48 hours. The tropical cyclone is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel Forms Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gretel formed over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 158.7°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) west-northwest of Poum, New Caledonia.  Gretel was moving toward the east-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (36 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the Coral Sea became better organized on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gretel.  The circulation around Gretel was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in all parts of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center of Gretel began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Gretel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under a small upper level ridge.  The winds are weaker in the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gretel will intensify during the next 24 to 36 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will move around the southwestern portion of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Gretel toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel could pass just west of New Caledonia during the next 18 to 30 hours.  Gretel will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia on Sunday.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel could approach Norfolk Island in about 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Uesi strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 162.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia.  Uesi was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi exhibited evidence of being the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  Microwave satellite imagery showed indications of the development of an eye in the lower and middle levels of Uesi.  The tops of tall thunderstorms around the center of circulation obscured the developing eye on conventional visible and infrared satellite images.  A ring of strong thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was producing the strongest wind speeds.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Uesi.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center in the southern half of the circulation and out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Uesi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Uesi will likely continue to strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next several days.  The high pressure system will steer Uesi toward the south.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Uesi will pass near and just to the west of northern New Caledonia during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Rainbands on the eastern side of Uesi could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of New Caledonia.