Tag Archives: Queensland

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor Threaten Australia

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor posed threats to Australia on Wednesday night.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday off the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 117.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly during the past 24 hours.  Veronica strengthened from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica had a large circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Veronica was 29.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.4.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones for several more days.  Veronica will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in the intensity of Veronica.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Veronica toward the south-southwest.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could move toward the south-southeast after it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica could approach the coast of Western Australia in about three days.  Veronica could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.1°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southwest of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minium surface pressure was 988 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the coast from Nhulunbuy to Karumba.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was gradually reorganizing as the center moved farther into the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  On its anticipated track Trevor is forecast to approach the southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria near Port McArthur in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Trevor brought wind and rain to northern Queensland on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.9°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) south of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning remained in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape York to Pormpuraaw.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Tropical Cyclone Watch for the east coast of the Northern Territory from Nhulunbuy to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor made landfall on the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula near Lockhart River on Tuesday.  Trevor was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved slowly westward across the peninsula to a position south of Weipa.  Trevor brought strong gusty winds and dropped locally heavy rain over the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor weakened steadily while it move over land.  The eye filled with lower clouds and the number of strong thunderstorms around the core and in the rainbands decreased.  However, the circulation remained intact.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor retained a well defined low level circulation with a distinct tight center.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria in a few hours.  Trevor will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor is likely to intensify when it moves back over water.  It could intensify rapidly once an eye and an eyewall redevelop at the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will continue to steer Trevor toward the west for another day or so.  After that time Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move more toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Trevor could reach the east coast of the Northern Territory in about 72 hours.  It is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Veronica developed quickly off the coast of Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 119.5°E which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica is also forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane and it could approach the coast of Western Australia in about four days.

Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor Nears Cape York Peninsula

Rapidly intensifying Tropical Cyclone Trevor neared the Cape York Peninsula on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 144.3°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Tropical Cyclone Warnings for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Orford Ness to Cape Flattery, from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw on the west coast of the peninsula and for inland locations between the two coasts.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  An eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Trevor was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 90 miles (145 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Trevor was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.8.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it makes landfall.  It will take Trevor about 24 hours to cross the Cape York Peninsula.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will weaken during that time.  Trevor will emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria in about 36 hours and it will strengthen again after it gets back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor will make landfall near or just to the south of Lockhart River in about 12 hours.    Trevor is forecast to move westward across the Cape York Peninsula.  it is likely to emerge over the Gulf of Carpentaria between Weipa and Aurukun in about 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will be capable of causing major damage.  It will bring strong winds and a storm surge to the area around Lockhart River.  Trevor will drop locally heavy rain over parts of the Cape York Peninsula and flooding could occur in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could threaten the Northern Territory of Australia later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Develops Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Trevor developed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.2°S and longitude 146.1°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) east of Lockhart River, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Coral Sea organized quickly on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Trevor.  An inner rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and there were indications that an eye could be starting to form.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in all parts of the Tropical Cyclone Trevor and the circulation was symmetrical.  Storms near the center of Trevor were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor will intensify during the next day or so and it could intensify rapidly.  It is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Trevor toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Trevor could reach the east coast of the Cape York peninsula in about 36 hours.  Trevor could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by that time.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning for the portion of the coast from Cape Grenville to Cape Flattery.  Tropical Cyclone Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from Cape York to Cape Grenville and from Cape Flattery to Cape Tribulation.

Tropical Cyclone Riley Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Riley strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Riley was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 116.9°E which put it about 415 miles (675 km) north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Riley was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Riley strengthened, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  The strongest winds were occurring in a band the curled around the northern half of the center of circulation.  Storms in the band were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were present in the western half of the circulation, but the bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Riley consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation and they were occurring mainly north of the center of Riley.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (215 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Riley was moving around the northwestern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds appeared to converge with the upper level divergence on the east side of Riley to produce sinking motion in that part of the tropical cyclone.  The sinking motion was bringing drier air to the lower levels and it appeared to suppressing convection in that region.

Tropical Cyclone Riley may be close to its peak intensity.  Riley is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C, but it will move over cooler water during the next few days.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds could strengthen which would cause more vertical wind shear.  Riley could intensify during the next 24 hours, but it is more likely to gradually weaken during the next two or three days.

The ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Riley toward the west-southwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Riley will remain north of the coast of Western Australia,  However, watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the coast in case the Tropical Cyclone Riley moves more toward the south.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Whim Creek to Onslow including Karratha and Dampier.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch is in effect from Onslow to Exmouth.

Elsewhere around Australia, a Tropical Low was dropping heavy rain over portions of northern Queensland.  At 1:00 p.m. EST the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 141.3°E which put it about 80 miles (125 km) north-northwest of Pormpuraaw, Australia.  It was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.  Locally heavy rain could cause floods in parts of northern Queensland.

Tropical Low Prompts Warning for Northern Queensland

A tropical low over the Gulf of Carpentaria prompted the issuance of warnings and watches for northern Queensland on Thursday.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mapoon to Karumba.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Karumba to the border between Queensland and the Northern Territory including Mornington Island.

At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 139.9°E which put it about 135 miles (220 km) west of Weipa, Australia.  It was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation around the tropical low exhibited more organization on Thursday.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing over the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in outflow channels to the northwest and southeast of the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The tropical low will be in an area where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will be limited.  The tropical low is likely to intensify during the next 24 to 36 hours and it is forecast to become a named tropical cyclone.

The tropical low is under the northeastern portion of an upper level low.  It is in a small region where the steering winds are weaker and the tropical low meandered over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday.  Northerly winds blowing around the upper level low are forecast to steer the tropical low toward the south during the next day or two.  On its anticipated path the tropical low is expected to move over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria near the coast of Queensland.  If the tropical low follow its anticipated track, it will make landfall on the south coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria in about 48 hours.  However, any eastward deviation would bring the tropical low inland over Queensland much sooner.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Riley strengthened northwest of Australia.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Riley was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 118.8°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Riley was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Whim Creek to Onslow, Australia including Karratha and Dampier.

Tropical Cyclone Mona Turns Back Toward Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona turned back toward Fiji on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 179.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) north of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the east-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

After being strongly sheared and making a slow clockwise loop on Friday, Tropical Cyclone Mona resumed a course toward Fiji on Saturday.  An upper level trough west of Fiji was producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Mona.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were also causing the distribution of thunderstorms around Mona to be asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms and winds were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation.  Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level trough west of Fiji will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit development.  Tropical Cyclone Mona could strengthen a little bit on Sunday, but it is likely to remain close to its current intensity.

The upper trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Mona toward the south-southeast during the next 12 hours.  The trough is forecast to cutoff and make a transition to an upper low.  The low will steer Mona more toward the south between 12 and 36 hours into the future.  Tropical Cyclone Mona will turn more toward the southwest on Monday.  On its anticipated track the center of Mona will pass near the northeastern end of Vanua Levu in about 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will bring wind and rain to Vanua Levu and the eastern islands of Fiji.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Penny was moving over the Coral Sea back toward Queensland.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 154.8°E which put it about 605 miles (980 km) east of Cairns.  Penny was moving toward the southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mona Stalls North of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona stalled north of Fiji on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 176.3°E which put it about 365 miles (590 km) north-northwest of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Northerly winds blowing around the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean strengthened on Friday.  Those upper level winds blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Mona and they caused strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear blew the upper portion of the circulation south of the circulation in the lower and middle levels of Tropical Cyclone Mona.  As a result, Mona was steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere, which caused it to stall.

New thunderstorms were redeveloping near the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona.  However, many of the bands revolving around the center of Mona still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The strong upper level winds were shearing the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that developed.  The upper level winds were also preventing the storms near the center of circulation from generating upper level divergence.

Tropical Cyclone Mona could intensify if the upper level winds weaken.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce northerly winds, but those winds are forecast to weaken a little during the weekend.  If the upper level winds weaken and the vertical wind shear lessens, the Tropical Cyclone Mona could strengthen.  However, if the stronger upper level winds persist, then Mona could weaken further.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will meander north of Fiji as long as the wind shear prevents the development of a core of taller thunderstorms.  If Mona strengthens as forecast, then the upper level ridge will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mona could approach Fiji in about 48 hours.  Some guidance is suggesting the Mona could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Penny was meandering over the Coral Sea.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 155.8°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) east of Cairns,, Australia.  Penny was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mona Forms North of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mona formed north of Fiji on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mona was located at latitude 11.6°S and longitude 178.1°E which put it about 460 miles (745 km) north of Suva, Fiji.  Mona was moving toward the south-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within an area of thunderstorms north of Fiji and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mona.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mona was still organizing.  There was a small cluster of thunderstorms around the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and those bands were revolving around the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mona will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next two days.  Mona will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit strengthening, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Mona will intensify during the next 36 to 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Mona toward the south-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Mona could approach Fiji in 36 to 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Mona could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears Fiji.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Penny was reorganizing over the Coral Sea east of Queensland.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 152.2°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Penny was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Penny Forms Over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Penny formed over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 140.9°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Weipa, Australia.  Penny was moving toward the east-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone warming was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape York to Pormpuraaw including adjacent coast areas.

A tropical low over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Penny.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Penny was still organizing.  A band of showers of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Penny.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Penny could strengthen during the next few hours.  Penny will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.   It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Penny will make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula near Weipa in about 12 hours.  Penny will weaken while it crosses northern Queensland.  Tropical Cyclone Penny could strengthen again when it moves over the Coral Sea in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Penny will move south of a ridge centered northeast of Australia.  The ridge will steer Penny in an east-southeasterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Penny will make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula near Weipa in about 12 hours.  Penny could emerge over the Coral Sea south of the Lockhart River in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Penny will bring rain and wind to the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula.  Penny will drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Queensland.  The heavy rain could cause flooding.  A Flood Watch is in effect for coastal catchments north of Caldwell, Australia and the Cape York Peninsula.