Tag Archives: Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Herold Brings Wind, Rain to Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Herold brought wind and rain to Rodrigues on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 64.1°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (34 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Herold passed west of Rodrigues on Tuesday, but it came close enough to that island to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  A weather station at the Plaine Corail airport on Rodrigues reported a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).

Although Tropical Cyclone Herold began to weaken on Tuesday.  It remained strong enough to generate wind gusts to hurricane/typhoon force over parts of Rodrigues.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated the there was still an eye at the center of Herold, although the eye was not evident on conventional infrared images.  The eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Herold will continue to weaken during the next several days.  An upper level trough near Madagascar and an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will interact to produce strong northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Herold.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear and they will cause the tropical cyclone to weaken.

The upper level trough and ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Herold toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track Herold will move quickly away from Rodrigues.  Weather conditions on that island will gradually improve as Tropical Cyclone Herold moves farther away.

Tropical Cyclone Herold Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Herold passed north of Mauritius on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Herold remained well organized on Monday.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated that there was an eye at the center of circulation, but the eye was not visible on conventional satellite images.  The eye was surround by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Herold.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were in bands south and east of the center of circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (215 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Herold may have reached its maximum intensity.  Herold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be plenty of energy in the upper layer of the South Indian Ocean to support intensification.  However, an upper level trough near Madagascar and an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean will interact to produce strong northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Herold.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will likely prevent further intensification.  In fact the wind shear is likely to be strong enough to cause Herold to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough and ridge will combine to steer Tropical Cyclone Herold quickly toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track Herold could reach Rodrigues within 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Herold is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Port Mathurin and the rest of Rodrigues.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel Speeds By New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Gretel sped by New Caledonia on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 169.4°E which put it about 750 miles (1210 km) north-northwest of Auckland, New Zealand.  Gretel was moving toward the southeast at 37 m.p.h. (60 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel moved around the western end of high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high steered Gretel rapidly toward the southeast and the tropical cyclone sped over the Coral Sea west of New Caledonia.  Rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Gretel brought wind and rain to portions of New Caledonia on Sunday.

An upper level ridge produced strong northwesterly winds which created strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear tilted the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gretel toward the southeast and Gretel began to weaken.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Gretel.  Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The wind field around Gretel expanded when the tropical cyclone started to weaken.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will continue to move rapidly toward the southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Gretel could pass north of New Zealand in 24 to 36 hours.

Elsewhere, over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Herold strengthened east of Madagascar.  At 5:00 p.m EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 53.2°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) west-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Herold could reach Rodrigues in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Herold Drops Heavy Rain Over Northeast Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Herold dropped heavy rain over parts of northeast Madagascar on Saturday.  A rainband on the western side of Herold was dropping locally heavy rain over northern Madagascar from Mananara to Iharana.  At 5:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Herold was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 51.2°E which put it about 545 miles (880 km) northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Herold was moving toward the east at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Herold strengthened into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday.  A large ragged circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) formed at the center of Herold.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  One strong band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and southern sides of Tropical Cyclone Herold.  A second strong band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of Herold.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Herold will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Herold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Herold will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Herold has been in an area where the steering winds are weak and it has not moved very far during the past 24 hours.  A subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean will strengthen.  Herold will move around the southwestern part of the high pressure system and the high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Herold will move away from Madagascar on Sunday.  The center of Herold could pass north of Mauritius in three days.  Tropical Cyclone Herold could approach Rodrigues in 84 to 90 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco Redevelops Near East Coast of Madagascar

After moving slowly westward across the Southwest Indian Ocean for the past few days, Tropical Cyclone Francisco redeveloped near the east coast of Madagascar on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 50.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Francisco was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Francisco east of Rodrigues last Thursday, but the lower portion of the circulation remained intact.  The lower level circulation drifted slowly westward during the last seven days and it moved across Mauritius and La Reunion earlier the week.  More thunderstorms began to develop around the lower level circulation on Wednesday, when it moved closer to the east coast of Madagascar.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to reform.  Storms near the center of circulation started generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds began to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco has exhibited greater organization in recent hours.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Francisco was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear and the shear could be responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 6 to 12 hours.  Francisco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will still cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Francisco will weaken when it moves over Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Francisco toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Francisco could make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar in about 12 hours.  Francisco will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Madagascar.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Tropical Cyclone Damien Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Damien strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 117.2°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) north of Karratha, Australia.  Damien was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Wallal Downs to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.  A Watch was in effect for the coast from Mardia to Onslow.

Tropical Cyclone Damien organized quickly on Thursday.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center of Damien.  A small ring of thunderstorms surrounded the forming eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Damien.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Damien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over Australia.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could rapidly intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Damien will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered over Australia.  The high will steer Damien toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Damien could make landfall on the coast of Western Australia in the vicinity of Dampier, Karratha and Wickham in about 24 hours.  Damien could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.  It will produce strong gusty winds.  Tropical Cyclone Damien will also drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco weakened east of Rodrigues.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) east of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Francisco was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb

Tropical Cyclone Develops Near Western Australia, Watch Issued

A tropical cyclone currently designated as 14S (SH14) developed near the coast of Western Australia on Wednesday and a Watch was issued for a portion of the coast.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 14S was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 120.2°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  A Watch was issued for a portion of the coast of Western Australia from Wallal Downs to Onslow including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

A Tropical Low previously located over Western Australia moved westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday and it strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 14S.  The circulation around the tropical cyclone was still organizing on Wednesday night.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and the bands were revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over northern Australia.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 14S will move around the northwestern end of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 14S will turn more toward the south on Friday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 14S could approach the coast of Western Australia between Port Hedland and Karratha in about 48 hours.  It will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Francisco formed northeast of Rodrigues.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 70.4°E which put it about 485 miles (785 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Mauritius.  Francisco was moving toward the east-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Diane Passes South of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Diane passed south of Rodrigues on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Diane was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 64.7°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Maritius.  Diane was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Diane brought winds to tropical storm force when it passed south of Rodrigues.  Diane also caused winds to tropical storm force over Mauritius earlier on Saturday.  A weather station at Le Morne on Mauritius measured a wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (79 km/h).  Several other weather stations on Mauritius including one at the international airport also reported winds to tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Diane will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification.  Diane will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  An upper level trough east of Madagascar will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Diane could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours, but the wind shear will cause weakening in a day or two.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Diane toward the east-southeast during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Diane will move quickly away from Rodrigues

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Esami was churning about 1000 miles (1600 km) east of Tropical Cyclone Diane.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Esami was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 1160 miles (1875 km) east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Esami was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Major Tropical Cyclone Joaninha Brings Wind and Rain to Rodrigues

Major Tropical Cyclone Joaninha brought wind and rain to Rodrigues on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 63.9°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) from Rodrigues, Mauritius.  Joaninha was moving toward the southeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.3.  Joaninha was capable of causing major damage.

The southwestern portion of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was very near Rodrigues.  Winds to hurricane typhoon force were occurring in that part of the eyewall.  Winds to tropical storm force are likely to affect all of Rodrigues.  The circulation around Joaninha was somewhat asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger rainbands were occurring in the eastern half of the circulation and the heaviest rain is likely to fall east of Rodrigues.  However, heavy rain in the eyewall could cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Joaninha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Joaninha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Joaninha could strengthen slightly while it passes by Rodrigues.

An upper level trough near Madagascar will produce northwesterly winds which will steer Tropical Cyclone Joaninha toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track Joaninha will move away from Rodrigues on Tuesday.  Conditions in Rodrigues should improve gradually as Tropical Cyclone Joaninha moves away.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, weakening Tropical Cyclone Veronica was skirting the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 115.4°E which put it about 140 miles (230 km) northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica dropped heavy rain over parts of Western Australia and flooding was occurring in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica Stalls, Weakens Near Western Australia Coast

Tropical Cyclone Veronica stalled and weakened near the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedand.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 117.5°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Port Hedland.  Veronica was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning remained in effect from Port Hedland to Mardie including Karratha and Barrow Island.

The southern eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Veronica moved over the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedland on Saturday night.  Veronica was the equivalent of a major hurricane and there would have been a period of strong winds near the coast.  It likely caused some wind damage and generated a storm surge at the coast.  An upper level trough west of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that reached the top of Tropical Cyclone Veronica as it neared the coast.  Those winds produced very strong vertical wind shear and they blew the upper half of the circulation southeast of the lower half of the tropical cyclone.  The decoupling of the upper and lower parts of the circulation caused Tropical Cyclone Veronica to weaken very quickly during the past 12 hours.  Veronica weakened from the equivalent of a major hurricane to a tropical storm.

The strong wind shear also generated an asymmetrical distribution of rainfall.  Most of the rain was falling in the southeastern half of the circulation which was over Western Australia.  Bands in the northwestern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Locally heavy rain could produce flooding in a few locations, but the rapid weakening of Tropical Cyclone Veronica will reduce the risk of flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will continue to weaken quickly because of the strong vertical wind shear.  The decoupling of the upper and lower halves of the circulation has resulted in little motion during the past few hours.  However, the lower half of Veronica will be steered more by the winds in the lower troposphere.  Those winds will steer Tropical Cyclone Veronica toward the west-southwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the lower half of Veronica will move near the coast of Western Australia.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica will pass near Wickham, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.  Veronica will bring some gusty winds, but it should pose a limited risk.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was strengthening northwest of Rodrigues.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Joaninha was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 62.0°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) northwest of Rodrigues, Mauritius.  Joaninha was moving toward the southeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.