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Typhoon Phanfone Hits Panay Island

Typhoon Phanfone hit Panay Island on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 121.8°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of San Jose, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

The eye of Typhoon Phanfone passed over the northern coast of Panay Island on Tuesday.  The southern part of the eyewall affected Roxas City, Kalibo and Ibajay.  Strong winds and heavy rain moved over the northern coast of Panay.  The northern eyewall was over Tablas Island and the northwestern part of the eyewall reached southeastern Mindoro.  Gusty winds may reach Roxas and San Jose on Mindoro.  Heavy rain was falling over over Tablas Island and southeastern Mindoro.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened slightly even though parts of the eyewall moved over some of the islands in the central Philippines.  The core of Phanfone remained intact and there was a small circular eye at the center of the typhoon.  The strongest winds were occurring in a ring of thunderstorms around the eye.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km).  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Phanfone was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.5.

Typhoon Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Phanfone could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane if the core of the circulation passes south of Mindoro.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Island.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass near the southern end of Mindoro during the next few hours.  The center will pass near Busuanga Island and Culion Island before Phanfone moves over the South China Sea.  Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Roxas, San Jose and Coron.  Heavy rain on Tablas Island, southern Mindoro, Busuanga Island and Culion Island could cause flash floods.  Floods are most likely on southern Mindoro because of the steep slopes near mountains.  Conditions will improve over Panay Island as Phanfone moves farther away.

Phanfone Strengthens to a Typhoon, Closing in on Central Philippines

Former Tropical Storm Phanfone strengthened to a typhoon as it closed in on the central Philippines on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Guiuan, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened on Monday.  The circulation became more symmetrical and an eye began to form at the center of Phanfone.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Phanfone.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Phanfone was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Typhoon Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Phanfone will continue to intensify until it makes landfall in the central Philippines.  Phanfone will begin to weaken when the center moves over land.  It could regain some strength while the center passes over the Visayan Sea.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On it anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass over southern Samar near Guiuan in a few hours.  The core of Phanfone will also pass near Tacloban and northern Leyte.  Typhoon Phanfone will move over the Visayan Sea before moving near Roxas City and northern Panay Island.

Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds to southern Samar, Leyte and northern Panay Island.  Phanfone will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.  Typhoon Phanfone could produce a storm surge of six feet (two meters) along portions of the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore.