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Tropical Cyclone Mal Moves South of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mal moved south of Fiji during Tuesday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 179.0°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Suva, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures caused the structure of Tropical Cyclone Mal to start to change during Tuesday night. An eye was not longer present at the center of Mal’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Bands in the other parts of Mal’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Mal was in the process of making a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mal increased when it started to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Mal’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Coral Sea. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Mal to weaken during the next 36 hours. Mal will continue to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the Coral Sea will steer Tropical Cyclone Mal toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will continue to move farther away from Fiji.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Passes West of Fiji

The center of Tropical Cyclone Mal passed just to the west of Fiji on Tuesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 175.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west of Nadi, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Radar from the Fiji Meteorological Service showed the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal passing just to the west of Viti Levu on Tuesday morning. A weather station at the airport in Nadi (NFFN) reported a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Mal was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it passed just to the west of Fiji on Tuesday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was at the center of Mal’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Mal’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the Coral Sea. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of cooler water and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Mal to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the Coral Sea will steer Tropical Cyclone Mal toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will move south of Fiji.

The eastern side of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Mal could pass close to the west coast of Viti Levu. A rainband on the eastern side of Mal’s circulation could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the western part of Viti Levu. Scattered electricity outages are possible. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Mal could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the northern and western coasts of Viti Levu. Mal could also bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Kadavu and Ono.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Mal intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Pacific Ocean northwest of Fiji on Monday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 175.1°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the south-southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mal rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northwest of Fiji on Monday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Mal’s circulation. Microwave satellite images suggested that an eye was forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Mal’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Mal’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Mal is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mal toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will pass just to the west of Viti Levu in 12 to 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Fiji. The strongest winds and heaviest rain will affect Viti Levu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Scattered outages of electricity are possible. Tropical Cyclone Mal could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the north and west coasts of Viti Levu.

Tropical Cyclone Mal Forms Northwest of Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Mal formed over the South Pacific Ocean northwest of Fiji on Sunday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal was located at latitude 11.9°S and longitude 172.3°E which put it about 520 miles (840 km) northwest of Nadi, Fiji. Mal was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean northwest of Fiji strengthened during Sunday night and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mal. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mal exhibited more organization on Monday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Mal’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mal.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Mal’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Mal will intensify during the next 24 hours. Mal could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mal toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mal will approach Fiji in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mal will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Fiji. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Asani Intensifies to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Asani intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 88.3°E which put it about 750 miles (1215 km) south of Kolkata, India. Asani was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Former Tropical Cyclone 02B intensified on Sunday morning and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Asani. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southwest of the center of Asani’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Asani. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Asani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Asani is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Asani will move toward a mass of drier air when it moves closer to India in a day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Asani toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Asani will move toward the east coast of India. Asani could be southeast of Visakhapatnam in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Passes South of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Teratai passed south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 104.4°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south-southwest of Christmas Island. Teratai was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai weakened slowly as it passed over the South Indian Ocean south of Christmas Island on Wednesday. Thunderstorms were occurring in a couple of bands in the western half of Teratai’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C during the next 24 hours. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, but it will move over cooler water later this week. When Teratai moves over cooler water, the reduction in available energy and the vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Teratai to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Redevelops South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Teratai redeveloped south of Indonesia on Tuesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 12.0°S and longitude 106.4°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) south of Jakarta, Indonesia and about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island. Teratai was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

After strong upper level winds blew the top off of former Tropical Cyclone Teratai late last week, the circulation in the lower levels made an extended clockwise loop southwest of Indonesia. More thunderstorms formed west of the low level center of circulation on Monday and the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Teratai strengthened during the past 24 hours. Data from scatterometers on satellites indicated that the wind speeds increased back to tropical storm force on Tuesday. The distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Teratai’s circulation. Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Teratai consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Teratai was a small tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26.5˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already causing an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will continue to inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours, but if the wind shear increases Teratai is likely to weaken again.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move south of Christmas Island during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai Forms Southwest of Java

Tropical Cyclone Teratai formed over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai was located at latitude 9.3°S and longitude 102.2°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. Teratai was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Java on Wednesday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Teratai. Thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Shorts bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Teratai. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Teratai.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move through an environment that will be only marginally favorable for intensification during the next several days. Teratai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered north of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Teratai’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move into an area where drier air is sinking toward the surface of the ocean. The sinking drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Teratai could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours. However, the effects of the sinking air and vertical wind shear are likely to cause Teratai to weaken later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Teratai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Teratai will move farther away from Indonesia. Teratai could move north of Cocos Island later this week.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Makes Landfall in Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone 03S made landfall on the coast of Western Australia on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 117.8°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west of Port Hedland, Australia. It was moving toward the southeast at 28 m.p.h. (45 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 03S made landfall on the coast of Western Australia west of Port Hedland on Thursday night. The tropical cyclone intensified slightly just before landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation. The tropical cyclone brought gusty winds to the area around Port Hedland. A weather station in Port Hedland reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone 03S will drop heavy rain over parts of Western Australia as it moves rapidly inland. Flood Warnings were in effect for the Pilbara Coastal Rivers, the Fortescue River, the De Grey River catchment, the Salt Lakes District Rivers, the Sandy Desert, and the Warburton District Rivers.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo weakened east of Rodrigues. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) east of Rodrigues. It was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 03S Moves Toward Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone 03S moved toward Western Australia on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 03S was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 111.8°E which put it about 595 miles (955 km) northwest of Port Hedland, Australia. It was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

There was a well defined low level center of circulation in Tropical Cyclone 03S, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southwest of the center. Bands north and east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone 03S was under the western part of an upper level ridge. The ridge was producing northeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The upper level ridge will still cause vertical wind shear, but the shear could decrease a little. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 03S could strengthen during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 03S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 03S will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Port Hedland in about 36 hours. The tropical cyclone will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia later this week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo moved slowly toward Rodrigues. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bongoyo was located at latitude 20.7°S and longitude 75.8°E which put it about 835 miles (1345 km) east of Rodrigues. Bongoyo was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.