Tag Archives: SH13

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east-southeast of Cocos Islands on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 102.5°E which put it about 450 miles (720 km) east-southeast of Cocos Islands. Freddy was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds occurred in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Freddy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.5.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Freddy’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east. So, there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours. Since the circulation around Freddy is small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tropical Cyclone to weaken during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Freddy toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be south of Cocos Islands in 36 hours. The core of Freddy and the strongest winds will pass south of Cocos Islands. Bands on the northern edge of Freddy’s circulation could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Cocos Islands.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dingani moved south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 77.8°E which put it about 740 miles (1195 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dingani was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani Forms over South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Dingani formed over the South Indian Ocean south-southeast of Diego Garcia on Thursday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 88.6°E which put it about 1305 miles (2110 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Dingani was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean strengthened on Thursday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dingani. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Dingani was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Dingani’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Dingani consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Cyclone Dingani was moving under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Dingani’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Dingani.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Dingani will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Dingani could strengthen gradually during the next 36 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger. If the upper level winds get stronger, then Dingani will not intensify.

Tropical Cyclone Dingani will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Dingani toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dingani will pass far south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Freddy moved farther away from Western Australia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 109.3°E which put it about 560 miles (900 km) north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Freddy was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati brought wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 24.0°S and longitude 45.8°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) east of Bekily, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. Emnati moved quickly toward the southwest after the center made landfall near Vohipeno. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati remained well organized as it gradually weakened over Madagascar. A well defined center of circulation was still evident on satellite images. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the southern half of Emnati’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will continue to move quickly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. The center of Emnati will move southwest of Madagascar later today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will continue over southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Weather conditions will improve when Tropical Cyclone Emnati moves away from Madagascar on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati hits Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Emanti hit the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 22.5°S and longitude 48.0°E which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south of Vohipeno, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar near Vohipeno on Tuesday night. Emnati was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it made landfall. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation, The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Emnati was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati never fully completed an eyewall replacement cycle before it hit the east coast of Madagascar. The circulation around the small inner eye persisted. The strongest thunderstorms and heaviest rains were occurring in the southern half of Emnati’s circulation. Bands in the northeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Emnati consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Northwesterly winds were sinking down the eastern slopes mountains in the northern part of Emnati’s circulation. The sinking, drier air was being pulled into the northeastern part of the tropical cyclone and it was inhibiting the development of thunderstorms in that region.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move around the northwestern part of a surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emanti toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated path Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move across southeastern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Emnati will weaken gradually as the center moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeastern Madagascar. The heaviest rain will fall on the eastern slopes of mountains where easterly winds will push the air up the slopes. Flash floods are likely to occur in those areas. There could also be widespread electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Emnati is the fourth tropical cyclone to hit Madagascar since the start of the tropical cyclone season in the Southwest Indian Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Moves Toward Madgascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati moved toward Madagascar on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 53.1°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was surrounded by concentric eyewalls on Monday morning. The original, inner eyewall surrounded an eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km). A larger, outer eyewall with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) surrounded the inner eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall was slowly weakening and the low level convergence was becoming more concentrated at the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms around the large core of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati increased after the concentric eyewalls formed. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.9. Emnanti was similar in intensity and size to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit southwest Louisiana in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the current eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti could reach the southeast coast of Madagascar in 36 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Mananjary and Vangaindrano. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Emnati will be capable of causing widespread major damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 55.5°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Madagascar on Sunday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 14 miles (22 km) was at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Microwave satellite images showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall. Concentric eyewalls could be forming and an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting.

The potential start of an eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati to increase. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Emnati’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 22.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.8. Tropical Cyclone Emnati was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. The winds in the lower atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, if an eyewall replace cycle occurs Emnati will weaken when the current eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in 48 hours. Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati passed north of Mauritius on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 57.7°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati continued to have the intensity of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday. A small eye was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emanti could eventually strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will move away from Mauritius on Saturday. Emnati will pass north of La Reunion on Sunday. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 60.9°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were blowing in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 36 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly now that an inner core with an eye and an eyewall have formed. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 30 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 60 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach the east coast of Madagascar in four days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Intensifies Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Emnati intensified northeast of Mauritius on Thursday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 62.6°E which put it about 595 miles (960 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Emnati was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati strengthened on Thursday. Microwave satellite imagery indicated that a circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was forming at the center of Emnati’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms. The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the developing core of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once the inner core with an eye and a complete eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Mauritius in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of La Reunion in 72 hours. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could reach Madagascar in less than five days.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Forms Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Emnati formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues on Wednesday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 14.0°S and longitude 67.2°E which put it about 455 miles (735 km) northeast of Rodrigues. Emnati was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues strengthened on Wednesday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati appeared to be organizing quickly on Wednesday evening. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Emnati’s circulation and microwave satellite images suggested that a small eye could be forming at the center. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the eastern half of Emnati consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Emnati’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Emnati could intensify more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high will steer Emnati toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti will pass north of Rodrigues in 36 hours. Emnati could pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion during the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could hit Madagascar next week.