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Tropical Cyclone Uesi Weakens East of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Uesi weakened east of Australia on Wednesday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 161.7°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Uesi was moving toward the south-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi weakened steadily on Wednesday as it moved into a more unfavorable environment.  An upper level low over eastern Australia and an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean interacted to produce strong northerly winds which blew across the top of Uesi.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they pushed the upper part of the circulation to the south of the lower level circulation.  Thunderstorms were only occurring in bands south of the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi.  Bands in other parts of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will continue to weaken as it moves into an even more unfavorable environment.  The upper low over eastern Australia and the upper ridge over the South Pacific will steer Uesi toward the south.  Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move over colder water.  The trough and the ridge will also continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The combined effects of colder water and strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Uesi to weaken during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Uesi strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 18.4°S and longitude 162.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) northwest of Poum, New Caledonia.  Uesi was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi exhibited evidence of being the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  Microwave satellite imagery showed indications of the development of an eye in the lower and middle levels of Uesi.  The tops of tall thunderstorms around the center of circulation obscured the developing eye on conventional visible and infrared satellite images.  A ring of strong thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was producing the strongest wind speeds.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Uesi.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center in the southern half of the circulation and out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Uesi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent further intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Uesi will likely continue to strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean during the next several days.  The high pressure system will steer Uesi toward the south.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Uesi will pass near and just to the west of northern New Caledonia during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Rainbands on the eastern side of Uesi could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi Develops Rapidly over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Uesi developed rapidly over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 163.6°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) north of New Caledonia. Ueusi was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h, (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Uesi organized quickly on Sunday.  The inner end of a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms formed in other rainbands.  The strongest bands were in the eastern and southern parts of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Uesi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will mot be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Uesi is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Uesi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Uesi toward the south during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Uesi could approach the northern end of New Caledonia in about 48 hours.  Uesi will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears New Caledonia.

Wutip Intensifies Into a Typhoon Southeast of Guam

Former Tropical Storm Wutip intensified into a typhoon southeast of Guam on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Wutip was located at latitude 6.5°N and longitude 150.0°E which put it about 640 miles (1035 km) southeast of Guam.  Wutip was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan.  A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Satawal and Puluwat.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Typhoon Watch are in effect for Ulul and Faraulep.

Typhoon Wutip continued to exhibit better organization on Wednesday.  A cluster of thunderstorms remained near the center of circulation.  A band of storms wrapped around the southern side of the center, which could indicate the start of the formation of an eyewall.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Wutip.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Typhoon Wutip will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Wutip will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Typhoon Wutip will move around the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will create some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Wutip will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

The ridge will steer Typhoon Wutip in a northwesterly direction during the next 48 hours.  Wutip is likely to turn more toward the north-northwest when it approaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Wutip could be south of Guam in 36 to 48 hours.  Wutip could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to spin over the Coral Sea between New Caledonia and Australia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 22.7°S and longitude159.8°E which put it about 560 miles (905 km) northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Oma was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Strengthens Northwest of New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Oma strengthened over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 162.1°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) west-northwest of Noumea, New Caldonia.  Oma was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Oma strengthened on Monday.  A broken ring of thunderstorms developed around a large eye at the center of circulation.  The eye had a diameter of approximately 60 miles (95 km).  The strongest winds were occurring in the parts of the ring with active thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the large inner core of Tropical Cyclone Oma.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Oma is likely to intensify during the next day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Oma in a southwesterly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma will pass west of New Caledonia.  However, rainbands on the eastern side of the circulation could drop locally heavy rain over New Caledonia.  Those rainbands could also produce winds to tropical storm force over northern New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Oma strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea north of New Caledonia on Friday.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 164.2°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) north of New Caledonia.  Oma was moving toward the west-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to become better organized on Friday.  A ring of thunderstorms wrapped around much of the center of circulation and there were indications on satellite images that an eye could be forming.  The strongest thunderstorms were the northwestern part of the ring.  The ring was thinner east of the center and there were several breaks in that portion of the ring.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from core of the tropical cyclone.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  The bands were stronger north and west of the center and the stronger winds were occurring in that part of Tropical Cyclone Oma.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Oma is likely to strengthen more and there is a chance that it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move slowly around the western end of a strengthening subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Oma slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Oma will move toward the southwest more rapidly in a day or so when the subtropical ridge is stronger.  On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Oma could pass near the northernmost islands of New Caledonia in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Spins Northwest of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Oma continued to spin over the Coral Sea northwest of Vanuatu on Thursday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 165.1°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Oma was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Oma exhibited evidence of greater organization on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped more tightly around the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms also exhibited greater organization.   Storms around the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Once Tropical Cyclone Oma starts to move, it will move through an area favorable for intensification.  Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Oma will be likely to intensify and it will likely strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Oma has been in an area where the winds at the steering level were weak and it has moved little during the past several days.  An upper level ridge east of Oma is forecast to strengthen during the next few days.  When the ridge strengthens, it will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Oma toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Oma will move slowly away from Vanuatu and it could be north of New Caledonia in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Oma Forms Northwest of Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Oma formed over the Coral Sea northwest of Vanuatu on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Oma was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 165.6°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Oma was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a broader area of low pressure northwest of Vanuatu on Tuesday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Oma.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Oma was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands northwest of the center of circulation.  Bands southeast of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The thunderstorms northwest of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northwest of the tropical cyclone.

An upper level ridge northeast of Vanuatu was producing southeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Oma.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were inhibiting upper level divergence to the southeast of Oma.  The wind shear was the probable cause of the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Oma will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.  However, Oma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Tropical Cyclone Oma could slowly strengthen during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Oma is currently embedded in a monsoon trough that is steering it toward the east.  A subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen east of Vanuatu.  Oma will slow down while the ridge builds east of Vanuatu and it could linger northwest of Vanuatu for several days.  The ridge will eventually turn Tropical Cyclone Oma toward the south.  The timing and location of that turn will be important.  If Oma moves farther east before it turns southward, then it could approach northwest Vanuatu in 24 to 36 hours.  If Oma stalls and then turns southward, then the strongest part of the tropical cyclone could pass west of Vanuatu.  Tropical Cyclone Oma could eventually move near New Caledonia in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Nora Strengthens Over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Nora strengthened over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 140.0°E which put it about 125 miles (205 km) west of Weipa, Australia.  Nora was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Karumba to Mapoon including Weipa and Mornington Island.  A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Weipa to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Nora strengthened on Friday as it entered the northern portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria.  An eye appeared intermittently at the center of circulation.  A band of stronger thunderstorms wrapped intermittently around the formative eye and the strongest winds were blowing in the band of thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nora will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Nora could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nora is moving near the western end of a mid-level ridge which is steering Nora toward the south.  A general motion toward the south is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Nora could approach the coast of Queensland between Kowanyama and the mouth of the Gilbert River in 24 to 36 hours.  Nora could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of northwestern Queensland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Marcus was weakening off the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 107.5°E, which put it about 770 miles (1045 km) west of Carnarvon, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the south-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nora Develops Rapidly North of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Nora developed rapidly north of Australia over the Arafura Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 10.0°S and longitude 136.8°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north of Nhulunbuy, Australia.  Nora was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A center of circulation organized quickly on Thursday in an area of thunderstorms over the Arafura Sea and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nora.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and northern side of the center of circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speeds were increasing in response.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Warnings for the portions of the coast from Elcho Island to Cape Shield including Cape Wessel and from Pormpuraaw to Thursday Island.  A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pormpuraaw to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland including Mornington Island.

Tropical Cyclone Nora will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Nora is likely to intensify rapidly and it is likely to become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Nora could become the equivalent of a major hurricane within 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nora was moving through an area where steering winds are weak and it was moving slowly toward the east.  A subtropical ridge east of Australia is expected to strengthen.  The ridge is forecast to steer Nora more toward the south in 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nora is expected to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria toward the coast of Queensland.  Nora could strengthen into a dangerous tropical cyclone.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Marcus continued to churn west of Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 106.0°E which put it about 555 miles (895 km) west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the south at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.