Tag Archives: SH16

Tropical Cyclone Nora Makes Landfall in Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Nora made landfall on the coast of Queensland near Pormpuraaw on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 141.8°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south of Kowanyama, Australia.  Nora was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nora moved across the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and made landfall near Pormpuraaw earlier on Saturday.  A weather station at Kowanyama, which is south of the original landfall recorded a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h).  The station also recorded five inches (128 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Nora is forecast to move southward near the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria for another 12 to 18 hours.  Nora is then expected to move westward across the southern end of the Gulf of Carpentaria.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was maintaining a warning for the portion of the coast from Pormpuraaw to Karumba.  A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Karumba to the border between Queensland and the Northern Territory.  In addition to bringing gusty winds to the coast of Queensland, Tropical Cyclone Nora will drop locally heavy rain.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Nora Strengthens Over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Nora strengthened over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 140.0°E which put it about 125 miles (205 km) west of Weipa, Australia.  Nora was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Karumba to Mapoon including Weipa and Mornington Island.  A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Weipa to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Nora strengthened on Friday as it entered the northern portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria.  An eye appeared intermittently at the center of circulation.  A band of stronger thunderstorms wrapped intermittently around the formative eye and the strongest winds were blowing in the band of thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nora will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Nora could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nora is moving near the western end of a mid-level ridge which is steering Nora toward the south.  A general motion toward the south is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Nora could approach the coast of Queensland between Kowanyama and the mouth of the Gilbert River in 24 to 36 hours.  Nora could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of northwestern Queensland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Marcus was weakening off the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 107.5°E, which put it about 770 miles (1045 km) west of Carnarvon, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the south-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nora Develops Rapidly North of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Nora developed rapidly north of Australia over the Arafura Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 10.0°S and longitude 136.8°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north of Nhulunbuy, Australia.  Nora was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A center of circulation organized quickly on Thursday in an area of thunderstorms over the Arafura Sea and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nora.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and northern side of the center of circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speeds were increasing in response.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Warnings for the portions of the coast from Elcho Island to Cape Shield including Cape Wessel and from Pormpuraaw to Thursday Island.  A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pormpuraaw to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland including Mornington Island.

Tropical Cyclone Nora will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Nora is likely to intensify rapidly and it is likely to become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Nora could become the equivalent of a major hurricane within 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nora was moving through an area where steering winds are weak and it was moving slowly toward the east.  A subtropical ridge east of Australia is expected to strengthen.  The ridge is forecast to steer Nora more toward the south in 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nora is expected to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria toward the coast of Queensland.  Nora could strengthen into a dangerous tropical cyclone.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Marcus continued to churn west of Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 106.0°E which put it about 555 miles (895 km) west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia.  Marcus was moving toward the south at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Stronger Tropical Cyclone Cook Nears New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Cook strengthened on Sunday as it neared New Caledonia.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cook was located at latitude 20.3°S and longitude 165.8°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) north-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  Cook was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cook intensified on Sunday as the organization of the core improved.  A circular eye developed inside a ring of strong thunderstorms.  The fastest winds were occurring in the ring of storms around the eye.  A number of other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cook.  Thunderstorms close to the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping out mass to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cook moved through an environment favorable for tropical cyclones on Sunday.  It moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 29°C.  An upper level ridge east of Cook produced northerly winds which were blowing toward the tropical cyclone, but the wind shear was not great enough to inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Cook should maintain its intensity until it makes landfall in New Caledonia.  Cook will begin to weaken after the center begins to interact with land.

A subtropical ridge east of Cook is steering the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest.  A southerly motion is expected to bring the center of Tropical Cyclone Cook to New Caledonia on Monday.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Cook is likely to make landfall between Houailou and Thio on the central coast of New Caledonia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Cook is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3.  The indices indicates that Tropical Cyclone Cook is capable of causing serious regional wind damage.  Tropical Cyclone Cook will also produce heavy rain and a chance for flash floods.

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Cook Brings Wind and Rain to Vanuatu

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Cook brought wind and rain to Vanuatu on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cook was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 167.4°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) west of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Cook was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cook strengthened quickly on Saturday as it moved through central portions of Vanuatu.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and a clear area appeared intermittently on satellite imagery.  The strongest winds were occurring in a ring of thunderstorms around the forming eye.  The thunderstorms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping out mass toward the southeast of Tropical Cyclone Cook.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cook will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Cook will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge to the east of Cook is generating northerly winds which are blowing toward the tropical cyclone, but the vertical wind shear is minimal.  Warm SSTs and little vertical wind shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Cook to intensify.  A period of rapid intensification could occur after the eye and eyewall are completely formed.  Tropical Cyclone Cook should become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Cook is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is steering Cook a little to the west of due south.  A general south-southwesterly motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cook will move away from Vanuatu and toward New Caledonia.  Tropical Cyclone Cook could approach New Caledonia in about 36 hours.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Cook will continue to bring wind and rain to the area around Port Vila, Vanuatu on Sunday.  Storms in the outer rainbands will bring wind and rain to the southern parts of Vanuatu.  Tropical Cyclone Cook will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it nears New Caledonia.  Cook will be capable of causing wind damage and heavy rain could cause flash flooding.

Tropical Cyclone 16P Forms Over Gulf of Carpentaria

After a quiet period of several weeks in the tropics Tropical Cyclone 16P formed over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 16P was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 140.3°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-northeast of Mornington Island and about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Kowanyama, Australia.  Tropical Cyclone 16P was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

An upper level ridge persisted over the Gulf of Carpentaria during the past few days.  The upper level ridge generated upper level divergence which enhanced rising motion and supported the development of thunderstorms.  Eventually, the upper level divergence pumped out enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease and the thunderstorms began to consolidate around a low level center.  The system developed enough organization on Tuesday to be classified as a tropical cyclone.

The organization of Tropical Cyclone 16P improved on Tuesday.  Spiral bands of thunderstorms wrapped around a low level center.  Strong thunderstorms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence, especially to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The environment is favorable for intensification as long as the center of circulation remains over water.  The Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.  An upper level ridge to the east of the tropical cyclone is generating some vertical wind shear, but the ridge is also enhancing upper level divergence.  The primary inhibiting factor is the proximity of the center of circulation to land.  Tropical Cyclone 16P could intensify further during the next 12 hours before it makes landfall.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone 16P toward the southeast coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.  On its anticipated track Tropical cyclone 16P is expected to make landfall in Queensland near the mouth of the Gilbert River in about 12 hours.  The potential track after landfall is much more uncertain.  Some guidance suggests that the tropical cyclone could move across the Cape York peninsula toward the Coral Sea.  Other guidance suggests that the tropical cyclone could turn back toward the northwest and move back out into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Although Tropical Cyclone 16P is likely to cause minor wind damage, it could produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding when it moves over northeastern Queensland.