Tag Archives: SH18

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continued to bring wind and rain to Western Australia on Friday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 22.4°S and longitude 125.0°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) west of Kiwirrkurra, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Isla continued to bring wind and rain to Western Australia after it made landfall on the coast near Pardoo Roadhouse on Thursday. Reports of the effects of Ilsa included pictures of damage to the Pardoo Roadhouse. A weather station in Telfer measured a sustained wind speed of 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) when Tropical Cyclone Ilsa passed near it. The weather station also measured a wind gust of 77 m.p.h. (124 km/h) and it recorded 2.00 inches (51.0 mm) of rain. A weather station in Marble Bar measured 2.47 inches (62.8 mm) of rain dropped by Tropical Storm Ilsa.

A Minor Flood Warning was in effect for the De Grey River. A Flood Warning was in effect for the Sandy Desert. Flood Watches were in effect for Warburton District Rivers, Salt Lake District Rivers and the Western Desert.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was still well defined on Friday morning even though it had been weakening over land for almost 24 hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over northern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa quickly toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will pass near Kiwirrkurra and Alice Springs.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will continue to weaken as it moves over land. Ilsa will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Hits Western Australia

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa hit the coast of Western Australia just to the east of Pardoo Roadhouse on Thursday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 19.9°S and longitude 119.7°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) northeast of Pardoo Roadhouse, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland. The Tropical Cyclone Warning extended inland to include De Grey, Marble Bar, Nullagine, Telfer, Parnngurr and Kunawarritji.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall. A very small circular eye was present at the center of Ilsa’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.

A weather station at Bedout Island measured a sustained wind speed of 135 m.p.h. (218 km/h) when the western side of the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa passed over it. The weather station also measured a wind gust of 178 m.p.h. (288 km/h).

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.2. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over northern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will pass near Telfer and Kiwirrkurra.

Although Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will weaken as it moves farther inland over Western Australia, it will take a while to spin down. Ilsa will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Western Australia. The strong winds will be capable of causing regional severe damage. Ilsa could also produce strong winds in De Grey and Telfer when it moves inland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Warnings are in effect for the De Grey River and the Sandy Desert. Flood Watches are in effect for the West Kimberley, Western Desert, Warburton and Salt Lake Districts. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could bring gusty winds to Kiwirrkurra during Friday.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Nears Western Australia

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ilsa neared the coast of Western Australia on Thursday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 119.1°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Pardoo Roadhouse, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the coast of Western Australia from Bidyadanga to Whim Creek. The Warning included Port Hedland. The Tropical Cyclone Warning extended inland to include De Grey, Marble Bar, Nullagine, Telfer and Parnngurr.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa continued to intensify during Wednesday night, as it moved closer to the coast of Western Australia. A very small circular eye was present at the center of Ilsa’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

A weather station at Bedout Island measured a sustained wind speed of 120 m.p.h. (104 kt or 193 km/h) as the core of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was approaching it. The weather station also measured a wind gust of 144 m.p.h. (125 kt or 232 km/h).

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ilsa increased as it intensified. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.0. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next few hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is likely to maintain its intensity until it reaches the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the western end of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Pardoo Roadhouse in 6 hours. Ilsa will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to Western Australia between De Grey and Wallal Downs. The strong winds will be capable of causing regional severe damage. Ilsa could also produce strong winds in De Grey and Telfer when it moves inland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Warnings are in effect for the De Grey River and the Sandy Sesert. Flood Watches are in effect for the West Kimberley, Western Desert, Warburton and Salt Lake Districts. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters) along the portion of the coast near where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 119.2°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) northwest of Wallal Downs, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the coast of Western Australia from south of Broome to Whim Creek. The Warning included Port Hedland. The Tropical Cyclone Warning extended inland to include De Grey, Marble Bar, Nullagine, Telfer and Parnngurr.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday night. A small circular eye was present at the center of Ilsa’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

A weather station at Rowley Shoals measured a sustained wind speed of 95 m.p.h. (83 kt or 154 km/h). The weather station measured a wind gust of 132 m.p.h. (115 kt or 213 km/h). It also measured a sea level pressure of 942.3 mb.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.5. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the western end of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Pardoo Roadhouse and Wallal Downs in 12 hours. Ilsa will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to Western Australia between Pardoo Roadhouse and Wallal Downs. The strong winds will be capable of causing regional severe damage. Ilsa could also produce strong winds in De Grey and Telfer when it moves inland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for the West Kimberley, De Grey River, Sandy Desert, Western Desert, Warburton and Salt Lake Districts. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters) along the portion of the coast near where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 119.4°E which put it about 200 miles (325 km) west-northwest of Broome, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland. Tropical Cyclone Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Broome to Bidyadanga and from Port Hedland to Whim Creek.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday morning. A small circular eye was present at the center of Ilsa’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to continue to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ilsa increased, when Ilsa strengthened. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.1. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. Ilsa could intensify rapidly at times.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the western end of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the south during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move toward the southeast when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system on Thursday morning. On its anticipated track, Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Port Hedland in 30 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could make landfall near Wallal Downs. Ilsa is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to Western Australia near Wallal Downs. The strong winds will be capable of causing severe damage. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for the West Kimberley, De Grey River, Sandy Desert, Western Desert, Warburton and Salt Lake Districts. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters) along the portion of the coast near where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 120.3°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) northwest of Broome, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Beagle Bay to Whim Creek. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Broome and Port Hedland.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa intensified rapidly over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated strong upper level divergence that pumped a large quantity of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of a large quantity of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly, which contributed to the rapid increase in wind speed.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. Ilsa could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move toward the south when it reaches the western end of the ridge on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Port Hedland in 48 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa could make landfall near Wallal Downs. Ilsa is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa Intensifies Rapidly Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa intensified rapidly over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 120.5°E which put it about 225 miles (360 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia. Ilsa was moving toward the southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Beagle Bay to Whim Creek. The Tropical Cyclone Watch included Broome and Port Hedland.

After moving southwest over the South Indian Ocean for three days without strengthening, a low pressure system previous designated as a tropical low intensified rapidly on Tuesday morning. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ilsa.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Isla was organizing quickly. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Ilsa’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ilsa.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ilsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge that extends from northern Australia to the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours. It will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Ilsa could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move around the northwest part of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer Ilsa toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Ilsa will move toward the south when it reaches the western end of the ridge on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Ilsa is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Broome and Port Hedland within 60 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Isla could make landfall near Wallal Downs. Ilsa is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Wasi Brings Wind and Rain to Samoa

Tropical Cyclone Wasi brought wind and rain to Samoa  on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Wasi was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 171.3°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa.  Wasi was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Wasi brought wind and rain to parts of Samoa on Saturday.  A weather station in Pago Pago, American Samoa reported a sustained wind speed of 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and a wind gust of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h).  Several inches of rain also fell on parts of Samoa.

Tropical Cyclone Wasi moved under the western side of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge produce strong northerly winds which blew across the top of Wasi.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and Tropical Cyclone Wasi began to weaken.  Many of the taller thunderstorms dissipated.  Some storms were still occurring in a band south and east of the center of circulation.  Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Wasi.

Tropical Cyclone Wasi will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification.  Wasi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The shear will be strong enough to prevent significant intensification and Tropical Cyclone Wasi could continue to weaken since it has a small circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Wasi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Wasi toward the south.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Wasi could pass near Niue in about 18 hours.  Wasi will bring gustier winds and rain showers to Niue on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vicky was dissipating south of Niue.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vicky was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 168.6°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) south-southeast of Niue.  Vicky was moving toward the south at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Wasi Develops Near Samoa

Tropical Cyclone Wasi developed near Samoa on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Wasi was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 172.9°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) west of Falealupo, Samoa and about 185 miles (300 km) west-northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa.  Wasi was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Wasi spun up out of the same elongated trough of low pressure near Samoa that produced Tropical Cyclone Vicky on Thursday.  A small center of low pressure developed west-northwest of Samoa on Friday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation and the system was classified as Tropical Cyclone Wasi.  Microwave satellite imagery indicated that there was a tight inner core in the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from Tropical Cyclone Wasi.  The circulation around Wasi was even smaller than the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vicky.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Wasi.

Tropical Cyclone Wasi will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Wasi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the winds may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Wasi could strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Since the circulation around Wasi is so small, if the tropical cyclone moves into an area where the upper level winds are stronger, it could weaken quickly.

Tropical Cyclone Wasi will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Wasi toward the southeast during the next 12 hours.  Wasi will move more toward the south later in the weekend.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Wasi will bring gust winds and locally heavy rain to portions of Samoa during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Vicky weakened as it passed near Niue on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vicky was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 168.7°W which put oit about 95 miles (150 km) southeast of Niue.  Vicky was moving toward the south-southeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Idai Drops Heavy Rain on Mozambique and Zimbabwe

Tropical Cyclone Idai dropped heavy rain on parts of Mozambique and Zimbabwe on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Idai was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 32.5°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Mutare, Zimbabwe.  Idai was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Although the wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Idai decreased steadily on Friday, the circulation remained very well organized.  An inner rainband wrapped most of the way around a well defined center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Idai.  The strongest bands were occurring in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the core of the circulation were still generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Idai dropped heavy rain from the coast of central Mozambique near Beira where Idai caused significant damage westward to the eastern Zimbabwe.  Persistent heavy rain was likely causing flooding along some of the rivers in central Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe.  Tropical Cyclone Idai is forecast to continue to move toward the west-northwest and heavy rain is likely to spread over more of Zimbabwe.