Tag Archives: SH25

Tropical Cyclone Karim Moves Southwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Karim moved southwest of Cocos Island on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 92.4°E which put it about 445 miles (725 km) southwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Karim showed signs of weakening as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southwest of Cocos Island on Tuesday morning. The distribution of thunderstorms became asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Karim. Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southeast of the center of circulation were still generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. A combination of colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Karim to weaken during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Karim toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. When Karim moves over colder water, the thunderstorms will not rise as high in the atmosphere and the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Karim will not be as tall. When the circulation around Karim becomes shorter, it will be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere. The winds lower in the atmosphere could turn Karim back toward the north later this week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim could meander south of Cocos Island while it weakens during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Passes West of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Karim passed west of Cocos Island on Monday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 90.9°E which put it about 410 miles (660 km) west of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Karim strengthened a little as it passed west of Cocos Islands over the South Indian Ocean on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Karim’s circulation and a small eye appeared on microwave satellite imagery. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Karim. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 145 miles (230 km) from the center of Karim.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. The wind shear may not be large enough to stop Tropical Cyclone Karim from intensifying and Karim could strengthen a little more during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Karim toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim will move southwest of Cocos Island during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Strengthens West-northwest of Cocos Island

Tropical Cyclone Karim strengthened over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 90.3°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) west-northwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Karim exhibited much more organization on Sunday morning as it strengthened over the South Indian Ocean. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Karim’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Karim.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce north-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to stop Karim from intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Karim is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Karim toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim will pass west of Cocos Island during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim Forms over the South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Karim formed over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Karim was located at latitude 8.0°S and longitude 89.6°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) west-northwest of Cocos Island. Karim was moving toward the southeast at 8 m.p.h (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west-northwest of Cocos Island strengthened on Saturday morning and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Karim. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Karim’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Karim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce north-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Karim’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be large enough to stop Karim from intensifying. Tropical Cyclone Karim is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Karim will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Karim toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Karim will pass west of Cocos Island in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Habana Expected to Move Westward

Tropical Cyclone Habana is expected to move westward during the upcoming week. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 1150 miles (1850 km) east of Rodrigues. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Habana continued to be the equivalent of a major hurricane. A small circular eye reappeared at the center of Habana on infrared satellite images on Sunday afternoon. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Habana. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.1.

Tropical Cyclone Habana will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next several days. Habana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move near the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Since the core of Habana is so small, the inner end of a rainband could wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. In that case an eyewall replacement cycle would cause fluctuations in the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Habana.

A high pressure system located south of Tropical Cyclone Habana will strengthen during the next few days. That high pressure system will become the dominant weather system steering Habana. When the high pressure system strengthens, it will steer Tropical Cyclone Habana back toward the west. On its anticipated track Habana will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to remain east of Rodrigues during the upcoming week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iman was speeding away from La Reunion on Sunday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 24.7°S and longitude 58.5°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) south-southeast of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 24 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb. Tropical Cyclone Habana is forecast to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Iman Brings Rain to La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Iman brought rain to La Reunion and Mauritius on Saturday night. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iman was located at latitude 22.6°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south-southwest of La Reunion. Iman was moving toward the east-southeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened on Saturday after it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar and Meteo France la Reunion designate the system as Tropical Cyclone Iman. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Iman was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Iman. Bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone consisted of primarily of showers and thunderstorms. Storms east of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

Rainbands on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Iman brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion and Mauritius. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in areas of steeper terrain.

An upper level trough south of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Iman toward the east-southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Iman will move quickly away to the southeast of La Reunion and Mauritius. Weather conditions in those locations will improve on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Iman will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Iman will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 27°C. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Iman. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, powerful Tropical Cyclone Habana maintained its intensity south-southeast of Diego Garcia. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Habana was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 79.2°E which put it about 785 miles (1265 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia. Habana was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Habana was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Habana. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Habana was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 41.1.

Tropical Cyclone Harold Brings Wind and Rain to Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Harold brought wind and rain to Tonga on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Harold was located at latitude 23.8°S and longitude 172.1°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Nuku Alofa, Tonga.  Harold was moving toward the east-southeast at 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

After forming near the Solomon Islands and causing damage in Vanuatu and Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Harold brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of Tonga on Wednesday.  The core of Harold with the strongest winds passed about 60 miles (95 km)  southwest of Tongatapu.  However, winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.  An airport at Fua’amotu, Tonga reported a sustained wind speed of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h) when Harold passed southwest of its location.  The airport also reported a wind gust of 89 m.p.h. (143 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Harold moved quickly away from Tonga on Wednesday night.  Weather conditions were improving.  A high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean will continue to steer Harold rapidly toward the east-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Harold will pass well to the south of Niue.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move into a less favorable environment.  Harold will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Harold will also move over cooler water.  Moderate vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Harold to weaken.  Harold could eventually make a transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves out of the tropics.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Harold Brings Wind and Rain to Fiji

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Harold brought strong wind and heavy rain to parts of Fiji on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold was located at latitude 19.4°S and longitude 178.7°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southeast of Tavuki, Fiji.  Harold was moving toward the east-southeast at 22 m.p.h (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

The eye of Tropical Cyclone Harold passed directly over Kadavu Island, Fiji on Tuesday night.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Harold was 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.0.  Tropical Cyclone Harold probably caused significant damage to Kadavu.  Harold also brought gusty winds and heavy rain to Viti Levu.  Flash floods were likely to have occurred in areas that received heavy rain.

Tropical Cyclone Harold strengthened on Tuesday after it moved away from Vanuatu where it caused significant damage.  The eye became evident on satellite imagery again and a solid ring of thunderstorms formed a strong eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Storms around the core of Harold generated strong upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Harold continued to increase in size.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move into an area less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will increase in speed during the next 48 hours and the increased vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Harold to weaken.  Harold could weaken slowly during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Harold quickly toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold could reach Tonga within 12 to 18 hours.  Harold will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Tonga.

Tropical Cyclone Harold Approaches Fiji

Tropical Cyclone Harold approached Fiji on Tuesday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 173.4°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) west of Nadi, Fiji.  Harold was moving toward the east-southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

Although the maximum sustained wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Harold decreased, the area of stronger winds increased.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Harold.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Harold was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.7.  Tropical Cyclone Harold was capable of causing major damage.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Harold increased in size on Tuesday.  The previous small eye was no longer visible on satellite imagery, but the most recent images suggested that a larger eye could be developing that the center of circulation.  The newly forming eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Harold.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Harold could strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Harold toward the east-southeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Harold could reach Fiji within 12 hours.  Harold will be capable of causing major wind damage.  It will drop heavy rain and flash floods are likely.  Tropical Cyclone Harold could reach Tonga within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Harold Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Harold strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday.  After weakening while the eye crossed the southern end of Espiritu Santo, the core of Harold rapidly intensified and the tropical cyclone became even more powerful.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 169.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.  Harold was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h.  and there were wind gusts to 200 m.p.h. (320 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 912 mb.

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Harold weakened when the eye moved across the southern end of Espiritu Santo.  For a time the eye was less distinct of satellite images.  However, the eye cleared out quickly after it moved back over water and the core of Harold strengthened further.  By Monday a small, well formed eye was evident infrared satellite images.  The eye had a diameter of 12 miles (19 km).  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Harold.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Harold.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Harold was 36.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 52.8.  Harold was capable of causing catastrophic damage.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Harold passed over the southern end of Espiritu Santo.  It then passed near the northern end of Malekula before battering Pentecost and Ambrym.  Harold likely caused catastrophic wind damage in those locations.  Tropical Cyclone Harold also dropped locally heavy rain over Espiritu Santo, Malekula, Pentecost, Maewo, and Ambrym.  Flash flooding probably occurred on those islands.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move through an environment capable of support an intense tropical cyclone during the next several days.  Harold will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tropical Cyclone Harold to weaken.  Tropical cyclones generally do not maintain Category 5 intensity for an extended period of time.  So, Tropical Cyclone Harold is likely to start to weaken within 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Harold will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Harold toward the east-southeast during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Harold will move away from Vanuatu.  Harold could approach Fiji within 36 hours and it could still be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.