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Tropical Cyclone Seroja Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 28.1°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 30 miles (45 km) south-southeast of Kalbarri, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southeast at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Overlander Roadhouse to Lancelin. The Warning extended inland to Merredin.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja made landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Kalbarri and Geraldton. Seroja strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it made landfall. The airport at Geraldton was reporting sustained winds to 56 m.p.h. (91 km/h) and wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) as the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja approached the station.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move rapidly across the southwestern part of Western Australia during the next 24 hours. Seroja will bring gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia. Flood Watches have been issued for the Wooramel, Murchison, Greenough, Yarra Yarra Lakes, Avon River and parts of the Salt Lake Catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Turns Toward Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 110.2°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) northwest of Kalbarri, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect from Minilya Roadhouse to Lancelin, Australia. The Warning included Cape Cuvier, Carnavon, Denham, Kalbarri, Jurien Bay and Lancelin.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon after it turned toward the coast of Western Australia on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Seroja and microwave satellite images showed evidence of the formation of an eye. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Seroja generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Seroja. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will limit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Seroja could get a little stronger during the next 12 hours. Seroja will begin to weaken when it moves over Western Australia.

The upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will steer Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja will pass just to the west of Denham during the next 12 hours. Seroja make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Kalbarri in 15 hours. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move across the southwestern part of Western Australia after it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will bring produce winds to hurricane/typhoon force to the portion of the coast near Kalbarri. Winds to tropical storm force could occur along the portion of the coast from Denham to Geraldton. Wind blowing water toward the coast could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) near where the center makes landfall. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Western Australia. Flood Watches have been issued for the Wooramel, Murchison, Greenough, Yarra Yarra Lakes, Avon River and parts of the Salt Lake Catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Prompts Watch for Western Australia

A potential threat posed by Tropical Cyclone Seroja prompted the issuance of a Watch for the coast of Western Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 109.8°E which put it about 315 miles (505 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Coral Bay to Lancelin. The Watch included Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and Geraldton.

More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja on Thursday night. The distribution of thunderstorms was more symmetrical, which indicated that the vertical wind shear was decreasing. Thunderstorms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Seroja.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge centered northwest of Australia during the next 24 hours. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the center and an inner core forms.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia during the next day or so. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Tropical Cyclone Seroja from the west during the weekend. The trough will turn Seroja toward the southeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Denham and Lancelin in 60 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Odette was interacting with the northwest side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Odette was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 108.2°E which put it about 675 miles (1090 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. Odette was moving toward the east at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb. Even though the wind speeds are stronger in Tropical Cyclone Odette than they are in Tropical Cyclone Seroja, the circulation around Seroja is larger. The circulation of Odette is forecast to absorbed by the larger circulation of Seroja. In addition, upper level divergence from Seroja will cause vertical wind shear over Odette, which will also cause the circulation around Odette to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Spins Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was spinning northwest of Australia on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 113.4°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja was exhibiting signs of intensification on Wednesday night, but it was also still being affected by vertical wind shear. More thunderstorms were beginning to form near the center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Seroja. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment more favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia during the next 24 hours. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours. Seroja will move closer to the axis of the upper level ridge in a day or so. The winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours. Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when the vertical wind shear decreases and it is forecast to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will steer Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja during the weekend. The trough will turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could approach the coast of Western Australia south of Denham in 72 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S was interacting with the western side of Tropical Cyclone Seroja. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 105.9°E which put it about 645 miles (1040 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Moves away from Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away to the south of Indonesia on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 11.7°S and longitude 119.8°E which put it about 460 miles (740 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia. Seroja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

After dropping heavy rain over parts of eastern Indonesia and causing flash floods and mudslides, Tropical Cyclone Seroja moved slowly away from the area on Monday. The circulation around Seroja appeared to be a little stronger on Monday night. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around a well defined low level center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storms force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered over northwestern Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja could intensify gradually during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next several days. The wind shear will decrease later this week and Tropical Cyclone Seroja could strengthen more rapidly when that occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S churned south of Christmas Island. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 105.5°E which put it about 700 miles (1100 km) northwest of Learmonth, Australia. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja Intensifies South of Indonesia

Tropical Cyclone Seroja intensified south of Indonesia on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located at latitude 10.7°S and longitude 122.3°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-southwest of Kupang, Indonesia. Seroja was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A tropical low near West Timor intensified into Tropical Cyclone Seroja south of Indonesia on Sunday. Bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Seroja. The strongest bands were in the northern and western parts of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Seroja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Seroja will continue to intensify during the next 48 hours. Seroja could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Seroja will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high will Seroja toward the southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Seroja will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next two days. An upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean will approach Seroja later this week. The trough could turn Tropical Cyclone Seroja toward the southeast and it could eventually threaten Western Australia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 27S formed south of Christmas Island. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 27S was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 104.8°E which put it about 330 miles (535 km) south of Christmas Island. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jeruto Develops Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Jeruto developed over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jeruto was located at latitude 16.4°S and longitude 82.7°E which put it about 950 miles (1535 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Jeruto was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Jeruto was asymmetrical.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation.  An upper level trough east of Madagascar and an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean were interacting to produce strong northwesterly winds.  Those winds were blowing across the top of Tropical Cyclone Jeruto and they were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong shear was blowing the upper portion of the tropical cyclone to the southeast of the lower level circulation.  The strong wind shear was the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Bands closer to the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Jeruto will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days.  Jeruto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.   However, the upper level trough and ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The shear could be strong enough to blow the upper part of Tropical Cyclone Jeruto to the southeast of the lower level circulation.  Jeruto is likely to weaken during the next several days.

Since Tropical Cyclone Jeruto is likely to weaken and the circulation become more shallow, it will be steered by winds in the lower troposphere.  Those winds will steer Jeruto toward the west-southwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jeruto will pass well south of Diego Garcia.

Tropical Cyclone Ann Forms Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Ann formed over the Coral Sea on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ann was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 158.7°E which put it about 875 miles (1410 km) east of Cairns, Australia.  Ann was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation became more evident in satellite images of a low pressure system over the eastern Coral Sea on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Ann.  A rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation.  A microwave satellite image indicated that the band may have wrapped completely around the center in the middle levels of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ann was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 85 miles (135 km) from the center of circulation in the southern half of Ann.

Tropical Cyclone Ann will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Ann will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but it is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ann is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

The ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Ann toward the west-northwest during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ann will approach the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland in about 72 hours.  Ann could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Elsewhere around the tropics in the southern hemisphere, Tropical Cyclone Lili was weakening near the coast of East Timor.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-northeast of Suai, East Timor.  Lili was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lili Forms Over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Lili formed over the Timor Sea on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lili was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 128.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Tutuala, East Timor.  Lili was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea exhibited more organization on Thursday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Lili.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms began to wrap around the low level center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms began to develop around the periphery of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.   The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Lili was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Lili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western portion of an upper level ridge.  Tropical Cyclone Lili will move through an area where the upper level winds are not too strong during the next 12 to 24 hours and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  Lili could intensify during that period.  Tropical Cyclone Lili will move closer to the western end of the ridge in about 24 hours.  There are strong northerly winds blowing around the western end of the ridge and there will be more vertical wind shear.  If the shear increases, then the circulation around Lili is likely to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Lili will move north of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge is likely to steer Lili more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Lili could reach East Timor in about 36 hours.  Lili will bring gusty winds, but heavy rain and flooding are greater risks.  An alternative forecast scenario is possible.  If the vertical wind shear is not too strong and the vertical structure of Tropical Cyclone Lili remains intact, the upper level ridge could steer Lili more toward the south.  In that case Tropical Cyclone Lili could bring rain to Western Australia.