Tag Archives: Sinaloa

Major Hurricane Willa Makes Landfall in Mexico

Major Hurricane Willa made landfall on the coast of Mexico between Teacapan and Mazatlan on Tuesday evening.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Willa was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 106.0°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southeast of Mazatlan, Mexico.  Willa was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas and from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.

An eyewall replacement cycle occurred in the core of Hurricane Willa on Tuesday.  When the original inner eyewall dissipated, the core of Willa was larger even though the maximum sustained wind speed was slower.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 35 miles from the the center of Hurricane Willa.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 100 miles from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Willa is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) s 34.8.  Hurricane Willa is capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Willa will produce hurricane force winds along the coast between Tecuala and Mazatlan.  Those winds will be capable of causing major damage.  The winds will also push water toward the coast and a storm surge of 10 to 12 feet (3 to 4 meters) is possible.  Hurricane Willa will dissipate fairly quickly when it moves over the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountains.  However, Willa will drop locally heavy rain over the southern part of Sinaloa and over Durango.  The locally heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Willa Strengthens to Cat. 5, Poses Imminent Threat to Mexico

Hurricane Willa strengthened Monday morning to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and Willa poses an imminent threat to Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Willa was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 107.2°W which put it about 135 miles (215 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes.  Willa was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to San Blas and from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Willa strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 36 hours.  Willa is a small, very well organized hurricane.  There is a small circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Hurricane Willa.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane.

Hurricane Willa is a small hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 30 miles ( 50 km) from the center of Willa.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Willa is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 44.7.  The core of Hurricane Willa is capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Hurricane Willa will remain in an environment capable of supporting strong hurricanes for about another 24 hours.  Willa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through an environment where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  If an outer rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hurricane Willa to weaken.  An upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Willa on Tuesday.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and the shear will start to weaken Willa.  Since Willa is a small hurricane, it will weaken faster than a larger hurricane would weaken.

Hurricane Willa will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico.  The ridge will steer Willa toward the north for another 12 hours or so.  Then the upper level trough will turn Hurricane Willa toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Willa will move over the Islas Marias on Tuesday morning.  Willa will reach the coast of Mexico between San Blas and Mazatlan on Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Hurricane Willa could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.   Willa will be capable of causing major damage.  The core of Hurricane Willa will bring damaging winds.  It will also produce a storm surge of 10 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) near where core of Willa makes landfall.  Hurricane Willa will drop heavy rain over Nayarit, Sinaloa and Durango.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, upper level divergence from Hurricane Willa appeared to be causing wind shear which was weakening Tropical Storm Vicente.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 100.8°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vicente was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Depression Forms Over Gulf of California

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E formed over the Gulf of California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of Loreto, Mexico.  It was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was still organizing .  There was a cluster of thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Most of the stronger storms were east of the center.  Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop north and south of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the depression.

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  The water in the Gulf of California is very warm and the depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  An upper level trough west of California will produce southwesterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Nineteen-E could intensify during the next 12 hours and it has a chance to become a tropical storm.

The upper level trough west of California will steer Tropical Depression Nineteen-E toward the north-northeast.  On its anticipated track the depression will reach the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas in about 12 hours.  It could be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast.  It will bring some gusty winds, but locally heavy rain is the greatest risk.  There is the potential for flash floods in parts of Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua.  The lower portion of Tropical Depression Nineteen will weaken quickly after it makes landfall and moves over mountains in western Mexico.  The upper portion of the circulation and some of the moist air will be transported farther northeast and the remnants of the circulation could enhance rainfall farther inland.