Tropical Storm Narda moved along the west coast of Mexico on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 107.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) northwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Narda was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Blas to Guaymas, Mexico.
The center of Tropical Storm Narda move just to the west of the coast of Mexico on Monday, which allowed Narda to strengthen during the day. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on satellite images. The center was over the warm water in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. A ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the center of circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center of Narda were generating upper level divergence. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Narda. The strongest rainbands were over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation. The stronger winds were also occurring in the rainbands over the water.
Tropical Storm Narda could strengthen further during the next 12 to 24 hours, if the center of circulation remains over water. Narda will move over a portion of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level ridge over Mexico was producing southeasterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation. Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear was not strong enough to prevent intensification. However, the center of Tropical Storm Narda is very near the west coast of Mexico and Narda will start to weaken again whenever the center moves inland.
The upper level ridge over Mexico will continue to steer Tropical Storm Narda toward the northwest for several more days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Narda will continue to move very close to the west coast of Mexico. Any wobble toward the east could bring the center of Narda inland again. Tropical Storm Narda will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal parts of Sinaloa and Sonora. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some parts of western Mexico.
Tropical Storm Lorena brought rain to parts of northwestern Mexico on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 111.2°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km/h) southwest of Guaymas, Mexico. Lorena was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gust to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad, Mexico.
Former Hurricane Lorena weakened on Saturday as it moved northward across the Gulf of California. The inner core of Lorena was disrupted on Saturday morning when the eye moved near the southern tip of Baja California. An upper level trough over the southwestern U.S. produced strong southwesterly winds which caused moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear inhibited the development of new thunderstorms while Tropical Storm Lorena moved over the warm water in the Gulf of California. By Saturday night the strongest thunderstorms were occurring just to the northeast of the center circulation.
Tropical Storm Lorena will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas on Saturday night. Lorena will move northward over Sonora toward Hermosillo after it make landfall. Tropical Storm Lorena is a small storm and it will weaken rapidly when it moves inland. Lorena will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Sonora. The locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E formed over the Gulf of California on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of Loreto, Mexico. It was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.
The circulation of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was still organizing . There was a cluster of thunderstorms near the center of circulation. Most of the stronger storms were east of the center. Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop north and south of the center of circulation. Storms near the center were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of the depression.
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. The water in the Gulf of California is very warm and the depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C. An upper level trough west of California will produce southwesterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Nineteen-E could intensify during the next 12 hours and it has a chance to become a tropical storm.
The upper level trough west of California will steer Tropical Depression Nineteen-E toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the depression will reach the west coast of Mexico near Guaymas in about 12 hours. It could be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast. It will bring some gusty winds, but locally heavy rain is the greatest risk. There is the potential for flash floods in parts of Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua. The lower portion of Tropical Depression Nineteen will weaken quickly after it makes landfall and moves over mountains in western Mexico. The upper portion of the circulation and some of the moist air will be transported farther northeast and the remnants of the circulation could enhance rainfall farther inland.