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Tropical Cyclone Dineo Makes Landfall in Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Dineo made landfall on the coast of Mozambique near Massinga on Wednesday.  Dineo intensified prior to landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  Tropical Cyclone Dineo was capable of causing minor wind damage.  It may have produced a storm surge near and to the south of where the center made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo is producing locally heavy rain as it moves inland over Mozambique.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dineo was located at latitude 23.3°N and longitude 33.6°E which put it about 125 miles (205 km) west-northwest of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Dineo was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h.  (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981.

Even though it has moved inland the structure of Tropical Cyclone Dineo is still very well organized.  The remnants of the eye and the eyewall are still visible on satellite imagery.  There are several rainbands rotating around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dineo.  The strongest winds are occurring in thunderstorms in the bands that are still offshore over the Indian Ocean.  The thunderstorms near the center of Dineo are still generating upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the core of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo will continue to weaken slowly as it moves farther inland.  The atmospheric environment is favorable for a tropical cyclone.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  However, now that the core of Dineo is inland, it is away from the warm water of the Indian Ocean which fueled the tropical cyclone’s intensification.  So, Tropical Cyclone Dineo will spin down, but at a slower rate than occurs with some landfalling tropical cyclones.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Dineo toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Dineo could pass near Dindiza, Chigubo and Mapai in Mozambique.  Dineo could produce locally heavy rain when it moves over those areas.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo or its remnants could also bring locally heavy rain to parts of northern South Africa, southern Zimbabwe and eastern Botswana.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo Intensifies As It Nears Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Dineo intensified on Tuesday as it moved closer to Mozambique.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dineo was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east-northeast of Inhambane, Mozambique.  Dineo was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo intensified on Tuesday and it was on the verge of reaching the intensity of a hurricane/typhoon.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around a circular eye.  There was a break on the western side of the developing eyewall.  The strongest winds were occurring in thunderstorms in the eyewall.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms were rotating around the core of Tropical Cyclone Dineo.  Thunderstorms around the core of Dineo were generating upper level divergence which was transporting mass away from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dineo will move through a favorable environment until it reaches Mozambique.  Dineo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  The favorable environment will allow Tropical Cyclone Dineo to continue to intensify during the next 12 to 18 hours.  It will become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Dineo toward the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Dineo is expected to make landfall on the coast of Mozambique north of Inhambane in less than 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  Dineo will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain when it moves into Mozambique.  Heavy rain could create the potential for flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Dineo will also produce a storm surge along the coast.  The highest storm surge will occur south of where the center makes landfall as the clockwise rotation pushes water toward the coast.