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Lan Strengthens to a Typhoon East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Lan strengthened east of the Philippines on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated it a typhoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Lan was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 132.4°E which put it about 515 miles (830 km) east of the Philippines.  Lan was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Lan became much more well organized on Tuesday.  Several long rainbands developed in the circulation and other smaller bands formed in the periphery of the typhoon.  The circulation of Typhoon Lan was circular and symmetrical.  Thunderstorms near the core of Lan began to generate strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.  The upper level divergence allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.  Lan is a large typhoon.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 230 miles (370 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Lan will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Typhoon Lan will move through an area where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next several days.  Typhoon Lan will continue to strengthen and there could be a period of rapid intensification after a well formed eye develops at the center of circulation.

Typhoon Lan was in an area where the steering currents were weak and it moved little on Tuesday.  An upper level ridge north of Lan blocked the typhoon from moving northward.  A weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge and the models are forecasting that Typhoon Lan will move northward during the rest of this week.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Lan will remain east of the Philippines.  Lan could be southeast of Okinawa in three or four days.

Tropical Storm Lan Develops Northwest of Palau

Tropical Storm Lan developed northwest of Palau on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lan was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 132.1°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Koror, Palau.  Lan was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A more distinct center of circulation developed within Tropical Storm Lan, but the low pressure system was still in the process of organizing.  The low level center of circulation of Lan was at the end of a long rainband that extends from the western periphery around the southern and eastern parts of the tropical storm.  That low level center appeared to be on the northern side of a much larger counterclockwise rotation.  Most of the stronger showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the long rainband.  A few new, thinner bands of showers and thunderstorms seemed to be forming inside the long rainband to west of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lan will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Lan is producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  There was some vertical wind shear, but it was not strong enough to prevent the intensification of Tropical Storm Lan.  Tropical Storm Lan is likely to intensify more slowly while the circulation organizes.  Once the center of circulation become tighter, then Lan could intensify more quickly.  A period of rapid intensification could occur, if Lan becomes a typhoon and an eye develops.

The ridge north of Lan and the counterclockwise flow to its south are combining to steer the tropical storm toward the west.  Numerical models are indicating that a weakness will develop in the ridge north of Tropical Storm Lan.  If that happens, then the steering current could weaken for 12 to 24 hours and Tropical Storm Lan might not move much.  If the break in the ridge becomes more pronounced, then Tropical Storm Lan could start to move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lan is expected to remain east of the Philippines, but the tropical storm could move closer to the northern Philippines if the forecast weakness in the ridge does not occur.

Typhoon Talim Strengthens West of Okinawa, Doksuri Moves Closer to Vietnam

Powerful Typhoon Talim strengthened west of Okinawa on Wednesday, while Typhoon Doksuri moved closer toward Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 124.6°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) west of Okinawa.  Talim was moving toward north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Talim evolved into a large powerful typhoon on Wednesday.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 60 miles (95 km) developed at the center of Typhoon Talim.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Talim.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were producing upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak over the core of Talim, but there are stronger westerly winds north of the typhoon.  Talim could strengthen some more during the next 24 hours.  However, the stronger upper level winds will increase the vertical wind shear on Friday and the typhoon will start to weaken when that happens.

Typhoon Talim is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the typhoon toward the north-northwest.  Typhoon Talim will move north on Thursday as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  The westerly winds north of Talim will turn the typhoon toward the northeast on Friday.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach Kyushu in two or three days.

Tropical Storm Doksuri strengthened on Wednesday as it moved closer to Vietnam.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Doksuri was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 112.2°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The circulation of Doksuri became much more organized on Wednesday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be developing.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed and began to revolved around the core of Doksuri.  Thunderstorms round the core were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Doksuri will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification on Thursday.  Doksuri will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge over eastern Asia is producing easterly winds which are causing some vertical wind shear over Doksuri.  The wind shear may slow intensification, but it will not stop it.

The ridge north of Doksuri is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Doksuri is forecast to pass south of Hainan Island.  Typhoon Doksuri could approach the coast of Vietnam in a little over 24 hours.  Doksuri could bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Vietnam.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Typhoon Talim Nears Ryuku Islands

Typhoon Talim neared the Ryukyu Islands late on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 126.3°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Ishigaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A large circular eye formed at the center of Typhoon Talim on Tuesday.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in those storms.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  The entire circulation became much more circular and symmetrical.  The thunderstorms in the core of Talim were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Talim will move through an environment favorable for intensification for several more days.  Talim is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Talim is producing easterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are not as strong as the were 24 hours ago and the vertical wind shear has decreased.  Typhoon Talim is likely to intensify further during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Talim is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the typhoon toward the northwest.  Talim is expected to turn toward the north as it rounds the western end of the ridge.  In 24 to 48 hours Talim will begin to be affected by westerly winds from the middle latitudes.  Those winds will cause Typhoon Talim to turn toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim will move across the Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday.  It looks like the center and strongest part of Typhoon Talim will move between Ishigaki and Okinawa.  Typhoon Talim will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.  The core of Typhoon Talim is forecast to pass west of Okinawa before it turns northeast toward the larger islands of Japan.

Elsewhere in Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Doksuri was slowly intensifying as it moved west of the Philippines.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Doksuri was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) east-southeast of Vinh, Vietnam.  Doksuri was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Doksuri became more organized on Tuesday.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms formed and began to revolve around the center or circulation.  Storms near the core began to generate upper level divergence.  Tropical Storm Doksuri will be moving through a favorable environment.  Doksuri will move over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and through and area where the upper level winds are not too strong.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is likely to intensify and it could eventually strengthen into a typhoon.  Tropical Storm Doksuri is forecast to continue moving  toward the west.  On its anticipated track Doksuri could be near Hainan Island in 48 hours and it could approach the coast of Vietnam in about three days.

Typhoon Talim Develops East of Taiwan

Typhoon Talim developed east of Taiwan on Monday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Talim was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 130.6°E which put it about 470 miles (760 km) east-southeast of Ishigaki, Japan.  Talim was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The core of the circulation of Typhoon Talim became more organized on Monday.  A primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation and an eyewall appeared to be forming.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Talim were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the center of the typhoon.

Typhoon Talim will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Talim will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of Talim is generating easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the typhoon.  Those winds are generating moderate wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but they are not strong enough to prevent Typhoon Talim from getting stronger.

A subtropical ridge north of Talim is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest for several more days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Talim could approach the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan within 36 to 48 hours.  Talim could be a stronger typhoon by the time it reaches that area.  In two or three days Typhoon Talim will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and the typhoon will turn toward the northeast.

Elsewhere in the Western North Pacific Tropical Depression 21W formed east of the Philippines.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 21W was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 121.9°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  It was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (64 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.  The depression will bring locally heavy rain to parts of the northern Philippines and it could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Mawar Nears Landfall in China

Tropical Storm Mawar moved closer to a landfall in China on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Mawar was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 116.4°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Hong Kong.  Mawar was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Mawar is very asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms are located south of the center of circulation.  A primary rainband is just south of the center of circulation and there are several other bands farther south of the center.  Recent visible satellite images suggest that the eastern end of the primary rainband could be trying to wrap around the center.  Thunderstorms in the primary rainband were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the southwest of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Mawar will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge centered over China is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating moderate vertical wind shear.  Those winds may also be the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Mawar could intensify before it makes landfall in China.

Tropical Storm Mawar is being steered slowly toward the west-northwest by a ridge near Japan.  That general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mawar will make landfall in China east of Hong Kong in 12 to 18 hours.  Mawar will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Guangdong province.  The rain could contribute to flooding in some locations.  Mawar is likely to weaken steadily after it makes landfall.

Typhoon Hato Brings Wind and Rain to Hong Kong

Typhoon Hato brought wind and rain to Hong Kong as the eye moved just south of the city.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Hato was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 113.8°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Hato was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Typhoon Hato intensified rapidly as it approached Hong Kong.  A circular eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) developed at the center of Hato.  The eye was surrounded by a thick ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hato.  The size of the circulation around Typhoon Hato also increased significantly.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.7.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Hato is capable of producing serious regional wind damage.  Typhoon Hato could cause a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) along the coast.  Hato will also drop heavy rain over parts of China and flash floods could occur in some areas.

Typhoon Hato is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge northeast of the typhoon and that general motion is forecast to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Hato will make landfall west of Hong Kong in a few hours.  Hato will continue to move inland over southeastern China.   Typhoon Hato will weaken as it moves inland, but it could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Zizhiqu, Huangzu and Guangxi provinces.

Strengthening Typhoon Hato Nears China

Typhoon Hato strengthened to a typhoon as it moved closer to a landfall on the coast of China.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Hato was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) east-southeast of Hong Kong.  Hato was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

The organization of Typhoon Hato improved significantly in recent hours.  A circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms around the eye.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms developed south and east of the center.   There were fewer showers and thunderstorms north and west of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Hato were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south and east of the typhoon.  Hato is a fairly small typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 20 miles (32 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 145 miles (230 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Hato is 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 18.7.

Typhoon Hato will move through an environment favorable for intensification until it makes landfall in China.  Hato will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  An upper level ridge over China is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  The strongest winds are north of Typhoon Hato and the vertical wind shear is moderate.  The shear could slow the rate of intensification, but it is not likely to prevent further intensification.

Typhoon Hato is being steered to the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge to the north of the typhoon and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Hato will make landfall near Hong Kong in 12 to 18 hours.  Typhoon Hato will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of eastern China.  Heavy rain could produce flash floods in some locations.  Hato will also generate a storm surge along the coast.

Tropical Storm Hato Forms Southeast of Taiwan

Tropical Storm Hato formed southeast of Taiwan on Sunday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Hato was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 126.1°E which put it about 390 miles (630 km) east-southeast of Taitung, Taiwan.  Hato was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low level center of circulation developed near the western edge of a cluster of thunderstorms southeast of Taiwan and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Hato.  The structure of Tropical Storm Hato is very asymmetrical.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are forming in the western half of the circulation.  There are some very tall strong thunderstorms west of the center of circulation.  An upper level ridge north of Hato is producing easterly winds which  are blowing toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds are limiting upper level divergence toward the east and they are probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Hato will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  Tropical Storm Hato is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The upper level ridge is creating moderate vertical wind shear, which is inhibiting intensification.  Tropical Storm Hato is likely to intensify, but it will do so more slowly because of the vertical shear.  Hato does have a chance to strengthen into a typhoon.

Hato is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge north of the tropical storm.  A general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Hato could reach the islands in the Luzon Strait or southern Taiwan in less than 36 hours.  Hato could make landfall on the east coast of China in less than three days.  Tropical Storm Hato will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain when it passes near southern Taiwan and the islands in the Luzon Strait.

Typhoon Nesat Causes Heavy Rain, Floods in Taiwan

Typhoon Nesat caused heavy rain and floods in parts of Taiwan when it moved over the island.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nesat was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 118.9°E which put it near Fuzhou, China.  Nesat was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

The core of Typhoon Nesat moved over northern Taiwan earlier today and the center passed close to Taipei.  The typhoon brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northern and eastern Taiwan.  The rainfall was heavy enough in some locations to cause flash flooding.  Nesat weakened to a tropical storm when the center passed over Taiwan.

Tropical Storm Nesat moved quickly across the Taiwan Strait and it made another landfall on the east coast of China near Fuzhou.  Nesat produced gusty winds and locally heavy rain near the coast.  Heavy rain will continue to fall over eastern China as Tropical Storm Nesat moves farther inland and the rain could result in flooding in some locations.

Parts of Taiwan could receive additional heavy rain on Sunday when Tropical Storm Haitang approaches the southern part of the island.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Haitang was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 119.7°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan.  Haitang was moving toward the east-northeast at at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The distribution of rain in Tropical Storm Haitang is very asymmetrical.  Almost all of the showers and thunderstorms are located south of the center of circulation.  However, there is a fairly large area of heavy rain in the southern half of the circulation of Haitang.  Tropical Storm Haitang is currently moving toward the east-northeast, but it is forecast to turn toward the north in a trough of low pressure left behind in the wake of Tropical Storm Nesat.  On its anticipated track Haitang, could make landfall in southwestern Taiwan near Kaohsiung in about 12 hours.  When the heavy rain in Haitang reaches Taiwan, it could exacerbate the flooding caused by Nesat.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific the center of Tropical Storm Noru passed just east of Iwo To.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Noru was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 141.4°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southeast of Iwo To.  Noru was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Storm Noru brought periods of heavy rain and gusty winds to Iwo To when the core of tropical storm moved east of the island.  Tropical Storm Noru is forecast to turn toward the west on Sunday.  The outer bands on the northern side of Noru will continue to cause gusty winds and periods of heavier rain on Iwo To as the tropical storm passes south of the island.