Tropical Storm Tara developed south of Manzanillo, Mexico on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Tara was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 104.4°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tara was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.
The circulation around Tropical Storm Tara is still organizing. More thunderstorms are developing near the center of circulation. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form around the center. Storms near the center are starting to generate upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Tara is small. Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.
Tropical Storm Tara will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification. Tara will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough near Baja California will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification. The wind shear will not stop intensification, but they will slow it. Tropical Storm Tara will remain close to Mexico and there is a chance that drier air from land could enter the northern part of the circulation. Tropical Storm Tara is forecast to strengthen gradually. However, because the circulation around Tropical Storm Tara is small, it could intensify or weaken very quickly if the environmental conditions change.
Tropical Storm Tara will be in an area where the steering currents are weak for another day or two. Tara is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tara will remain west of Mexico. However, several forecast models predict that Tara will move more northward and make landfall west of Manzanillo. The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that portion of the coast in case Tara brings tropical storm force winds to the coast.