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Tropical Storm Sonca Near Landfall in Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Sonca neared a landfall on the coast of Vietnam on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Sonca was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 108.2°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Hue, Vietnam.  Sonca was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Sonca is fairly small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  A subtropical ridge north of Sonca is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Sonca will make landfall north of Hue, Vietnam in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Sonca will bring gusty winds, locally heavy rain and the potential for floods when it makes landfall.  Sonca will continue to move inland over central Vietnam, central Laos and northeastern Thailand.  Sonca could continue to produce locally heavy rain over those areas as it moves inland and weakens.

Elsewhere in the Western North Pacific the circulations of Typhoon Noru and Tropical Storm Kulap are interacting east-southeast of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Noru was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 157.0°E which put it about 1330 miles (2150 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Noru was moving toward the east at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h) and there were gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Kulap was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 155.8°E which put it about 1095 miles (1765 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Kulap was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Typhoon Noru and Tropical Storm Kulap are close enough to each other to rotate cyclonically around a point between them in what is called the Fujiwhara effect.  Typhoon Noru is the much larger and stronger circulation and upper level outflow from Noru is causing vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Kulap.  If the two tropical cyclones move closer to each other, it is possible that the circulation of Kulap could be absorbed by the larger, more powerful circulation of Typhoon Noru.

Tropical Storm Talas Makes Landfall in Vietnam

Tropical Storm Talas made landfall on the coast of Vietnam on Sunday.  Talas was bringing gusty winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Vietnam, Laos and Thailand.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Talas was located at latitude18.6°N and longitude 105.5°E which put the center near Vinh, Vietnam.  Talas was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (27 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Storm Talas strengthened before it made landfall in Vietnam.  A primary band wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms formed near the center of Talas as the tropical storm approached the coast of Vietnam.  The strongest winds in Tropical Storm Talas were occurring in thunderstorms over the South China Sea.  Tropical Storm Talas will weaken as it moves farther inland.

Tropical Storm Talas was bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Vietnam, Laos and Thailand.  Locally heavy rain could cause flooding, which will be the greatest risk as Tropical Storm Talas moves farther inland.

Tropical Storm Talas Forms East of Vietnam

Tropical Storm Talas formed east of Vietnam on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Talas was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 110.1°E which put it about 170 miles (270 km) east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Talas was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms persisted over the South China Sea for the past several days.  A distinct center of circulation began to develop in the northern part of the area of thunderstorms.  The Japan Meteorological Agency classified the system as Tropical Storm Talas on Saturday.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Talas is still organizing.  The center of rotation was near the northwestern edge of the area of thunderstorms.  Additional thunderstorms were beginning to form near the center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were southwest of the center.  Bands of lighter showers were occurring in the remainder of Tropical Storm Talas.  Thunderstorms forming near the center of circulation were beginning to generate strong upper level divergence which was pumping out mass.

Tropical Storm Talas has about 24 hours to strengthen.  Talas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Talas is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical storm.  There is some vertical wind shear, but the shear appears to have diminished during the past few hours.  Since Tropical Storm Talas will be moving through an environment of very warm water and reduced vertical wind shear, it will likely strengthen during the next 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge north of Talas is steering the tropical storm toward the west and motion a little to the north of due west is forecast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Talas will pass south of Hainan Island.  Tropical Storm Talas will approach the coast of Vietnam near Vinh in about 24 hours.  Tropical Storm Talas will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Central Vietnam when it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha Strengthens Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha strengthened over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maarutha was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 91.7°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) southwest of Sandoway, Burma.  Maarutha was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  The band was broken on the eastern side of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the northern and eastern periphery of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the primary rainband were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass out to the northeast of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha will be moving through an environment that will be moderately favorable for intensification during the next 12-24 hours.  Maarutha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of Maarutha is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Despite the vertical wind shear Tropical Cyclone Maarutha could intensify further before it makes landfall in Burma in 18 to 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge east of Maarutha is steering the tropical cyclone toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Maarutha will make landfall in Burma between Sittwe and Bassein near Sandoway.

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Burma when it makes landfall.  Some storm surge is likely south of where the center makes landfall and the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Tropical Depression 01W Redevelops East of Vietnam

More thunderstorms developed on Saturday around the circulation previously designated Tropical Depression 01W earlier this week when it moved through the southern Philippines.  At 10:00 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Depression 01W was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 109.1°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  The depression was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

After persisting mainly as a low level circulation during the past few days as it moved westward across the South China Sea, more thunderstorms developed in the depression on Saturday.  Most of the thunderstorms developed in bands north and west of the center of circulation.  There were bands of low clouds and showers in the southeastern portion of the circulation. The depression has a well defined low level center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were starting to generate some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northwest of the depression.

The depression will be moving through an environment that is marginal for intensification.  It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C to 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  An upper level ridge to the east of the depression is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  If the shear does not increase, the depression could maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly during the next 24 hours.

A ridge north of the depression is steering it toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the depression will move toward the southernmost part of Vietnam.  The depression could bring locally heavy rain to southern Vietnam.  The rain could be heavy enough to cause flooding in some areas.

Tropical Cyclone Forms Near Andaman Islands

A tropical cyclone formed near the Andaman Islands over the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05B was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 92.1°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

An area of thunderstorms moved from the western Pacific Ocean into the southeastern Bay of Bengal.  The area of thunderstorms turned slowly northward near the Nicobar and Andaman Islands.  A distinct center of circulation began to organize inside the area of thunderstorms.  The Indian Meteorological Department classified the low pressure area as a depression and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 05B.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone 05B is still organizing.  A primary band of thunderstorms wraps around the northern and western side of the center of circulation.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are forming in the eastern half of the circulation.  Microwave satellite imagery suggests that an eye could be developing in the middle levels of the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center are generating upper level divergence that is pumping out mass toward the northeast of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge to the west of the cyclone is producing northerly winds which are blowing across the top it.  However, the vertical wind shear is not significantly inhibiting the organization of the tropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone 05B could reach hurricane intensity in a couple of days.

A subtropical ridge is currently steering Tropical Cyclone 05B toward the north.  The center is moving just to the west of the Andaman Islands.  The subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen and build toward the west.  As the ridge strengthens and extends farther west, it will start to steer the tropical cyclone toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 05B could approach the east coast of India in three or four days.

Tropical Cyclone 05B will continue to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the Andaman Islands on Thursday.  The tropical cyclone could bring strong winds, locally heavy rain, a storm surge and mudslides to southern India in a few days.

Tropical Storm Vamco Forms East of Vietnam

A large area of low pressure east of Vietnam developed enough organization on Sunday to be classified as Tropical Storm Vamco.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Vamco was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 110.0°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Vamco was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Although there is a large area of low pressure, the circulation around Tropical Storm Vamco is not well organized.  Most of the thunderstorms are located in a large rainband about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation that wraps around the northern and western parts of the storm.  There are not many thunderstorms located near the center of the circulation.  Vamco is located over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  However, an upper level ridge is generating northeasterly winds over the top of the storm and the vertical wind shear is inhibiting development.  Some intensification is possible in the short term, but the lack of a well formed inner core and proximity to land will limit strengthening.

A subtropical ridge north of Vamco is steering the tropical storm toward the west and that steering pattern is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track the center of Vamco will reach the central coast of Vietnam in about 18 hours.  The primary impacts will be locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.