Tag Archives: Toamasina

Tropical Cyclone Emnati Moves Toward Madgascar

Tropical Cyclone Emnati moved toward Madagascar on Monday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 53.1°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar. Emnati was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Emnati was surrounded by concentric eyewalls on Monday morning. The original, inner eyewall surrounded an eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km). A larger, outer eyewall with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) surrounded the inner eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall was slowly weakening and the low level convergence was becoming more concentrated at the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms around the large core of Emnati generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Emnati increased after the concentric eyewalls formed. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Emnati. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Emnati was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 26.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.9. Emnanti was similar in intensity and size to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit southwest Louisiana in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Emnati will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Even though Tropical Cyclone Emnati will be in an environment favorable for intensification, the current eyewall replace cycle could cause Emnati to weaken while the inner eyewall dissipates. Tropical Cyclone Emanti could eventually strengthen again after the eyewall replacement cycle is completed.

Tropical Cyclone Emnati will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Emnati toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Emanti could reach the southeast coast of Madagascar in 36 hours. The center of Emnati could make landfall between Mananjary and Vangaindrano. Tropical Cyclone Emnati could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Emnati will be capable of causing widespread major damage to southern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Emnati will bring strong destructive winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Emanti will also cause a significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Strengthens East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened again east of Madagascar on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 52.2°E which put it about 210 miles (345 km) east-southeast of Toamasina, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai intensified again on Friday morning after it completed another eyewall replacement cycle. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Batsirai. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was a large tropical cyclone after several eyewall replacement cycles. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could intensity during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle starts.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar near Mahanoro in 24 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Moves Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved toward Madagascar on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 53.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to be nearing the completion of another eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday night. The inner eyewall consisted mostly of a small ring of showers and lower clouds. A much larger eye was evident on satellite images. The outer eyewall consisted of a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the larger eye. Storms near the core of Batsirai’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The completion of another eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to increase in size again. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (365 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could weaken during the next few hours while it fully completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 36 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Drops Heavy Rain on La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped heavy rain on La Reunion on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 95 miles (150 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped very heavy rain over La Reunion on Thursday morning. A weather station at La Nouvelle reported 516.7 mm (20.34 inches) of rain. Batsirai moved slowly during the past 18 hours. The slow movement caused persistent easterly winds to blow up the eastern sides of mountains. The persistent rising motion produced very heavy rain on the eastern slopes. The very heavy rain was likely causing widespread flash floods. The heavy rain will continue until Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moves farther away from La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to have concentric eyewalls based on radar images from La Reunion and on satellite images. A small inner eye and eyewall was present inside a larger outer eyewall. The inner eyewall was weakening, but it was still visible on radar and satellite images. Eventually, the inner eyewall will dissipate and the strongest winds will occur in the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Batsirai’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai contracted slightly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to weaken during the next few hours while it completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion during the next 12 hours. The heaviest rain will continue to fall on the eastern slopes of mountains where the winds were blowing up the slopes. Continued heavy rain could cause devastating flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions on La Reunion will improve gradually when Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 48 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Passes North of La Reunion

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of La Reunion on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 55.4°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to be in the midst of another eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall. A second, larger eyewall surrounded the inner eyewall and the inner eyewall started to weaken. The outer eyewall contained a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai continued to have a large circulation. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.6.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to weaken during the next few hours while it completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion during the next 12 hours. Rainbands in the southeastern part of Batsirai’s circulation were also dropping heavy rain over Mauritius. The heaviest rain was falling on the eastern slopes of mountains where the winds were blowing up the slopes. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions on La Reunion and Mauritius will improve gradually when Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 48 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane Makes Landfall in Madgascaar

The center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall on the coast of Madagascar on Saturday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 49.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Toamasina, Madagascar. Chalane was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Chalane made landfall on the coast of northeast Madagascar between Fenoarivo and Toamasina on Saturday. The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles from the center of the tropical cyclone. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the western and southern parts of Chalane.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move west-southwest across central Madagascar during the next 24 hours. The center will pass a little north of Antananarivo. The mountains will disrupt the lower levels of the circulation and Chalane will weaken while it is over land. However, Tropical Cyclone Chalane will drop heavy rain over parts of central and northern Madagascar. The rain will be heaviest where winds push air up the slopes and flash floods could occur in regions of steep terrain.

Tropical Cyclone Chalane will move over the Mozambique Channel in a day or so. If the middle and upper parts of the circulation remain relatively intact, then Chalane could strengthen back into the equivalent of a tropical storm. Tropical Cyclone Chalane or the remnants of its circulation could approach Mozambique in 72 hours

Tropical Cyclone Francisco Redevelops Near East Coast of Madagascar

After moving slowly westward across the Southwest Indian Ocean for the past few days, Tropical Cyclone Francisco redeveloped near the east coast of Madagascar on Thursday.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Francisco was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 50.7°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) east of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Francisco was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear weakened Tropical Cyclone Francisco east of Rodrigues last Thursday, but the lower portion of the circulation remained intact.  The lower level circulation drifted slowly westward during the last seven days and it moved across Mauritius and La Reunion earlier the week.  More thunderstorms began to develop around the lower level circulation on Wednesday, when it moved closer to the east coast of Madagascar.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms began to reform.  Storms near the center of circulation started generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speeds began to increase.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco has exhibited greater organization in recent hours.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Francisco was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear and the shear could be responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 6 to 12 hours.  Francisco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level ridge will still cause vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Francisco will weaken when it moves over Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Francisco will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high will steer Francisco toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Francisco could make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar in about 12 hours.  Francisco will drop locally heavy rain over parts of central Madagascar.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Tropical Cyclone Ava Drops Heavy Rain on Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ava dropped heavy rain over Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 48.2°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) north-northwest of Mananjary, Madagascar.  Ava was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ava weakened into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the day it spent moving over Madagascar.  The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms over the water.  The center made landfall on Friday near Toamasina.  The center then passed near Moramanga, Anosibe An’ala, and Marolambo.  There is still a distinct center of circulation and several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the center.  Some of the storms dropped heavy rain over parts of Madagascar.  There was stronger rising motion in places where the winds blew up the sides of mountains and the rainfall was heavier in those locations.  The potential for flooding exists in places that received heavy rain.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ava is likely to move back over the water of the South Indian Ocean during the next few hours.  Tropical Cyclone Ava will move into an environment that is favorable for intensification when it moves back over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water east of Madagascar is near 28°C.  Ava is moving under the axis of an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are relatively weak.  So, there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ava is likely to strengthen once the center moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Ava is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering Ava toward the south-southeast.  The ridge is forecast to steer Tropical Cyclone Ava toward the south for another day or two.  When Tropical Cyclone Ava moves farther to the south in about 48 hours, an upper level trough will cause northwesterly winds, which will start to steer the tropical cyclone toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava is expected to move off the coast of Madagascar near Mananjary in a few hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Irving was strengthening east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Irving was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 87.5°E which put it about 1145 miles (1845 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Irving was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Satellite imagery suggested that Tropical Cyclone Irving could be strengthening rapidly.  A primary rainband was wrapping around the center of circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Irving.  Tropical Cyclone Irving will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Irving is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon while it passes well to the south of Diego Garcia during the next several days.

Strong Tropical Cyclone Ava Makes Landfall in Madagascar

Strong Tropical Cyclone Ava made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava was located near 18.0°S and longitude 49.2°E which put it near Toamasina.  Ava was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Ava was the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Ava intensified rapidly during the past 12 hours and it was still intensifying when it made landfall on the coast of Madagascar.  There was a well defined circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the core of Tropical Cyclone Ava were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping away mass and allowed the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 180 miles (290 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Ava was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.4.  Those indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Ava is capable of causing regional serious damage.  The core of Tropical Cyclone Ava passed over Toamasina and there is likely to be serious wind damage in that city.  Heavy rain was falling in parts of eastern Madagascar and floods could occur.  Tropical Cyclone Ava could produce a storm surge of 10 feet (3 meters) south of where the center made landfall, because the strong winds will be blowing the water toward the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Ava will weaken while the center moves over land in eastern Madagascar.  However, the rest of the environment is favorable for a tropical cyclone.  The Sea Surface Temperature off the east coast of Madagascar is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  If the inner core of Tropical Cyclone Ava remains intact, then Ava could intensify again when the center moves back over the South Indian Ocean in a day or so.

Tropical Cyclone Ava is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest.  Ava will start to move toward the south when it reaches the end of the ridge in a few hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ava is forecast to move just inland of the east coast of Madagascar.  Ava is forecast to move back off the coast in 24 to 36 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Ava is capable of causing serious damage along the central east coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Ava Strengthens East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ava intensified east of Madagascar on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 50.8°E which put it about 125 miles (205 km) east-northeast of Toamasina, Madagascar.  Ava was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ava exhibited the classic structure of a tropical cyclone on Thursday.  A clear eye was evident at the center of circulation on microwave satellite imagery.  The eye was surrounded by a nearly complete ring of showers and thunderstorms.  Spiral bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Ava.  Storms in the core of Ava were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ava will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Friday.  Ava will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  Tropical Cyclone Ava is moving near the western end of an upper level ridge, but the upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Warm water and little vertical wind shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Ava to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Ava should strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Ava is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which has been steering Ava mostly toward the west.  Tropical Cyclone Ava is forecast to move more toward the southwest on Friday as it nears the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Ava will move close to the east coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 18 to 24 hours.  When Ava reaches the western end of the ridge in about 24 hours, it will start to move more toward the south.

Tropical Cyclone Ava will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the east coast of Madagascar.  The winds will be strong enough to do damage and they could generate a storm surge at the coast.  Rain is already falling on parts of eastern Madagascar and more heavy rain will create the potential for floods.