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Typhoon Shanshan Brushes East Coast of Honshu

Typhoon Shanshan brushed the east coast of Honshu late on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 36.8°N and longitude 141.5°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) east of Iwaki, Japan.  Shanshan was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

The center of Typhoon Shanshan moved very close to the east coast of Honshu near Choshi on Wednesday and then it moved nearly parallel to the coast.  The stronger winds and heavier rain were occurring on the eastern side of Shanshan, and they passed east of Honshu.  The winds were weaker and the rain was lighter in the western side of Typhoon Shanshan.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring near the east coast of Honshu.  The typhoon had little effect on the weather near Tokyo.  Some locations near the coast did have a period of heavier rain after the center of Typhoon Shanshan passed and the winds blew from the southwest toward the coast.

Typhoon Shanshan will affect the coast of Honshu for another six to twelve hours, while the center moves nearly parallel to the coast.  Shanshan will reach an area where stronger westerly winds are blowing in the middle and upper troposphere.  Those winds will turn Typhoon Shanshan toward the east and they will push it away from Japan.  The stronger winds will also cause significant vertical wind shear.  Shanshan will move over cooler water when it turns eastward.  The combination of vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Typhoon Shanshan to weaken and it could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone in a day or two.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Yagi formed southeast of Okinawa on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Yagi was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 133.6°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Yagi was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan Moves Closer to Honshu

Typhoon Shanshan moved steadily closer to Honshu on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 141.6°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) southeast of Tokyo.  Shanshan was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan intensified earlier on Tuesday and it started to weaken on Tuesday night.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Shanshan.  The rainbands south and east of the center were stronger and the rainbands north and west of the center were weaker.  Storms near the core of Shanshan were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 220 miles (350 km) from the center.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment on Wednesday that should allow it to remain a typhoon until it reaches Japan.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Shanshan will move into a region in a day or so where stronger upper level winds will blow from the west.  Vertical wind shear will increase at that time and Typhoon Shanshan will start to weaken more quickly.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western end of a ridge over the North Pacific Ocean and the ridge will steer the typhoon toward the north on Wednesday.  When Shanshan gets close to the coast of Honshu, the westerly winds will turn the typhoon toward the east.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Shanshan could make landfall on the coast of Honshu east of Tokyo in 18 to 24 hours.  Shanshan will bring gusty winds and it could drop heavy rain over coastal regions of eastern Honshu.

Typhoon Shanshan Moves Toward Japan

Typhoon Shanshan moved toward Japan on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 145.3°E which put it about 585 miles (940 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Shanshan was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Typhoon Shanshan weakened slightly during the past 24 hours.  It appeared that some drier air may have been pulled into the western half of the circulation.  There was still a circular eye at the center of circulation, but there were breaks in the ring of thunderstorms around the eye.  There were several bands of stronger storms in the eastern and southern parts of the circulation.  Bands north and west of the center of Shanshan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms in the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment that should allow it to remain a typhoon for several more days.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Drier air north and west of Typhoon Shanshan will inhibit the formation of taller thunderstorms in that part of the typhoon and the drier air will limit the potential for intensification.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western side of a subtropical ridge over the North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Shanshan in a general north-northwesterly direction for another two or three days.  When Typhoon Shanshan nears Honshu, an southwesterly winds on the east side of an upper level trough will start to steer the typhoon toward the northeast.  There is still uncertainty about when and where the turn toward then northeast will occur and Typhoon Shanshan could be close to Tokyo in about three days.

Shanshan Strengthens to a Typhoon Southeast of Japan

Former Tropical Storm Shanshan strengthened into a typhoon southeast of Japan on Saturday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Shanshan was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 148.5°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) northeast of Agrihan.  Shashan was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye was developing at the center of Typhoon Shanshan.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Shanshan.  The strongest rainbands were south and east of the center of circulation.  Bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms around the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Shanshan has a large circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation.

Typhoon Shanshan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Shanshan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Shanshan will intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Shanshan will move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Shanshan in a north-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Shanshan will pass east of Iwo To in 24 to 36 hours.  Shanshan could be just southeast of Honshu in about four days.

Typhoon Jongdari Turns Toward Honshu

Typhoon Jongdari turned toward Honshu on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Jongdari was located at latitude 31.0°N and longitude 143.7°E which put it about 415 miles (665 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Jongdari was moving toward the north at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

An upper level low west of Typhoon Jongdari was affecting the circulation.  Winds blowing around the eastern side of the upper low were cutting under the upper level divergence at the top of the circulation of Jongdari.  In addition, drier flowing around the southern half of the upper low was being pulled into the western side of the circulation of Typhoon Jongdari.  The effects of the upper low were causing the circulation of Typhoon Jongdari to become asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms and stronger winds were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  With fewer strong thunderstorms in the western part of the typhoon with downdrafts to bring stronger winds to the surface the wind field was also becoming asymmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation on the eastern side of Jongdari, but they only extended out about 50 miles (80 km) on the western side.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 230 miles (370 km) to the east of the center, but only extended out about 170 miles (280 km) to the west of the center of circulation.

The upper level low will continue to affect Typhoon Jongdari.  Jongdari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support a strong typhoon.  However, the upper low will inhibit upper level divergence to the west of the circulation.  Upper level divergence will be strong to the southeast of Typhoon Jongdari.  Drier air flowing around the upper low will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in bands in the southwestern part of the circulation.  Typhoon Jongdari is likely to weaken slowly, although it could maintain its intensity at times as it moves around the northern side of the upper low.

The upper low will also steer Typhoon Jongdari during the weekend.  Jongdari will turn more toward the west-northwest when it moves around the northern part of the upper low.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jongdari could pass south of Tokyo in about 18 hours.  The center of Jongdari could be very close to Hamamatsu in about 24 hours.  It could make landfall near Matsuzaka in a little over a day.  Typhoon Jongdari could pass very close to Osaka and Kobe and it could pass just south of Kyoto.  Heavy rain fell on parts of Japan earlier this month and Typhoon Jongdari could cause serious flooding in some locations.

Typhoon Jongdari Nears Iwo To

Typhoon Jongdari neared Iwo To on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Jongdari was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 140.5°E which put it about 105 miles (170 km) southwest of Iwo To.  Jongdari was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Jongdari strengthened as it neared Iwo To on Thursday.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and the Japan Meteorological Agency classified Jongdari as a typhoon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Jongdari.  Thunderstorms in the core of Jongdari were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Typhoon Jongdari will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Jongdari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level low southeast of Honshu will cause easterly winds which will blow over the northern part of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will be less over the core of the typhoon.  Typhoon Jongdari will strengthen during the next 24 to 48 hours and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Jongdari is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific and the ridge is steering Jongdari toward the northeast.  A general motion toward the northeast is forecast for the next 12 to 24 hours.  The upper low southeast of Honshu will move slowly toward the west.  When Jongdari moves farther north, it will begin to be steered more by the upper level low.  Typhoon Jongdari is forecast to turn more toward the north on Friday.  Jongdari will start to move toward the northwest in about 36 hours, when it moves northeast of the upper level low.

On its anticipated track Typhoon Jongdari will move over Iwo To in a few hours.  It will bring gusty winds and heavy rain.  Typhoon Jongdari could approach Honshu in about 48 hours and it could cause flooding in addition to strong winds and heavy rain.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific, Tropical Storm Wokung was weakening east of northern Japan.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Wokung was located at latitude 42.2°N and longitude 152.5°E which put it about 600 miles (960 km) east of Misawa, Japan.  Wokung was moving toward the north-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Jongdari Forms Southwest of Iwo To

Tropical Storm Jongdari formed southwest of Iwo To on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Jongdari was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 136.9°E which put it about 410 miles (665 km) southwest of Iwo To.  Jongdari was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed within former Tropical Depression 15W on Tuesday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Jongdari.  The circulation of Jongdari was asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were forming in bands north of the center.  Bands south of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Stronger storms near the center were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the core of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Jongdari will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Jongdari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there will be sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge where the winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Intensification could be slow at first while the circulation becomes more organized, but Jongdari could strengthen more quickly when the inner core becomes more well developed.  Tropical Storm Jongari could strengthen to a typhoon with 48 hours.  It could eventually intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Jongari will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge which will steer Jongari toward the northeast during the next two or three days.  When Jongari moves farther north, it will be affected by a second ridge located farther to the north.  The second ridge is forecast to strengthen and push Jongari more toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Jongari could reach Iwo To in about 48 hours.  It could be a typhoon at that time.  Jongari could approach Tokyo in about four days and it is likely to be a typhoon when it reaches Honshu.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Wokung was churning well southeast of Japan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Wokung was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 158.0°E which put it about 1250 miles (2015 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Wokung was moving toward the north-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Storm Wukong Forms Southeast of Japan

Tropical Storm Wukong formed southeast of Japan on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Wukong was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 159.0°E which put it about 1370 miles (2210 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Wukong was moving toward the north at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and the were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms developed southeast of Japan during the weekend and a low level center of circulation formed near the southwestern edge of the cluster of storms.  However, strong upper level winds blowing from the southwest kept blowing the top of the circulation northeast of the low level center and the system was unable to develop.  The upper level winds slowed on Monday and a band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  The Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Wukong.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Wukong organized quickly after the upper level winds weakened.   As mentioned above, a primary rainband wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  Storms in the primary rainband generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical storm.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the eastern half of the circulation.  Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Storm Wukong will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Wukong will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  Wukong is moving along the eastern portion of an upper level trough.  The trough is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  However, those winds weakened on Monday and they will not cause enough vertical wind shear to prevent further intensification.  Tropical Storm Wukong could strengthen into a typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Eventually, Wukong will move over cooler water and it will begin to weaken.

Tropical Storm Wukong is moving between an upper level trough to the west and an upper level ridge to the east.  The trough and ridge were combining to steer Wukong toward the north and a general northerly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Wukong will stay west of the larger islands of Japan.  Wukong could approach the Kuril Islands in about three days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific former Tropical Storm Ampil weakened to a tropical depression over land southeast of Beijing, China, Tropical Storm Son-tinh meandered near the coast of southeastern China and Tropical Depression 15W organized southwest of Iwo To, Japan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Ampil was located at latitude 38.8°N and longitude 117.6°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) southeast of Beijing, China.  Ampil was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55k km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  Tropical Depression Ampil was still dropping locally heavy rain over parts of eastern China.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Son-tinh was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 109.0°E which put it about 40 miles (65 km) southeast of Beihai, China.  Son-tinh was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.  Tropical Storm Son-tinh was dropping locally heavy rain over parts of southeastern China and Hainan Island.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 15W was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 136.3°E which put it about 585 miles (945 km) southwest of Iwo To, Japan.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.  The circulation of Tropical Depression 15W became more organized on Monday and it could eventually strengthen into a typhoon when it moves toward Iwo To later this week.

Tropical Storm Saola Speeding Toward Tokyo

Tropical Storm Saola sped toward Tokyo, Japan on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Saola was located at latitude 32.4°N and longitude 134.4°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) west-southwest of Tokyo.  Saola was moving toward the northeast at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Storm Saola was weakening and making a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern side of the circulation.  There were other thinner bands of showers revolving around the core of the circulation.  Strong westerly winds in the upper levels were causing significant vertical wind shear which was tilting the upper part of the circulation toward the northeast.  Cooler drier air appeared to be flowing toward the western part of the circulation.

Westerly winds in the middle latitudes were steering Tropical Storm Saola quickly toward the northeast.  The center of Saola will pass south of Shikoku.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Saola will pass near Tokyo in about 12 hours.  Tropical Storm Saola will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Shikoku and central Honshu.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Saola Near Okinawa

The core of Typhoon Saola moved near Okinawa on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Saola was near latitude 26.2°N and longitude 128.2°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) south of Okinawa.  Saola was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Saola became more well organized on Friday.   The primary rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of circulation.  A large eye was surrounded by a broken ring of showers and thunderstorms.  Low clouds and showers were scattered throughout the large eye.  Several other bands of showers and storms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Saola.  The rainbands were weaker on the northwestern side of Typhoon Saola and there appeared to be cooler, drier air on that side of the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.

Typhoon Saola could be near its maximum intensity.  Saola will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  However Typhoon Saola is near the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes and the vertical wind shear will increase on Saturday.  Typhoon Saola could strengthen a little more during the next six to twelve hours, but it will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Typhoon Saola is moving around the western end of a ridge which is steering Saola toward the north.  When Typhoon Saola reaches the westerly winds of the middle latitudes, those winds will turn Saola toward the east-northeast.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Saola will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Typhoon Saola will be near southern Kyushu in about 12 hours and the center could pass near Tokyo in about 24 hours.