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Tropical Storm Ma-on Moves over South China Sea

Tropical Storm Ma-on moved over the South China Sea southeast of Hong Kong on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Ma-on was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 116.1°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) southeast of Hong Kong. Ma-on was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Storm Ma-on maintained its intensity as it moved over the South China Sea southeast of Hong Kong on Wednesday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Ma-on’s circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms in the rest of Tropical Storm Ma-on was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Ma-on. Bands in the eastern and northern parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over China was producing east-northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Ma-on. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ma-on will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 29˚C. The upper level ridge over China will continue to cause vertical wind shear. If the vertical wind shear does not increase, then Tropical Storm Ma-on could strengthen during the next 24 hours. There is a chance Ma-on could strengthen to a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ma-on toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ma-on could be south of Hong Kong in 12 hours. The center of Ma-on could make landfall on the south coast of China near Yangjiang and Dianbai in 24 hours. Tropical Storm Ma-on will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern China. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Tokage was passing east of Japan. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Tokage was located at latitude 35.8°N and longitude 149.4°E which put it about 475 miles (770 km) east of Tokyo, Japan. Tokage was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Storm Ma-on Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Ma-on brought wind and rain to northern Luzon on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Ma-on was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 121.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Claveria, Philippines. Ma-on was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Storm Ma-on brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern Luzon on Tuesday morning. The center of Ma-on made landfall on the northeastern coast of Luzon east of Tuguegarao during Monday night. Tropical Storm Ma-on moved northwest across northern Luzon. Ma-on intensified before it made landfall and it was almost a typhoon at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Ma-on’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move through an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea. Ma-on will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 29˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over China. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ma-on’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Ma-on is likely to strengthen to a typhoon during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ma-on toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ma-on will move away from northern Luzon later on Tuesday. Ma-on will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon until it moves farther away. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Ma-on could be south of Hong Kong in 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Tokage intensified to a typhoon southeast of Japan. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Tokage was located at latitude 30.8°N and longitude 149.6°E which put it about 670 miles (1080 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan. Tokage was moving toward the north-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Storm Ma-on Develops near Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Ma-on developed near northern Luzon on Sunday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Ma-on was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 123.4°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Tuguegarao, Philippines. Ma-on was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Former Tropical Depression 10W strengthened to Tropical Storm Ma-on just to the east of northern Luzon on Sunday night. The distribution of thunderstorms in Ma-on continued to be asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were in bands in the southern half of Ma-on’s circulation. The bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A strong upper level ridge over China was producing strong northerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Ma-on. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ma-on will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are 30˚C. The upper level ridge over China will continue to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Ma-on’s circulation. However, Tropical Storm Ma-on could strengthen during the next 12 hours. Ma-on will weaken when the center passes over northern Luzon, but it could strengthen again over the South China Sea later this week.

Tropical Storm Ma-on will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ma-on toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ma-on will hit northern Luzon in 12 hours. Ma-on will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Tokage formed southeast of Japan. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Tokage was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 151.6°E which put it about 1010 miles (1635 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan. Tokage was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Meari Brings Rain to Tokyo

Tropical Storm Meari brought rain to Tokyo on Saturday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Meari was located at latitude 35.4°N and longitude 139.2°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Meari was moving toward the northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Meari brought rain to the region around Tokyo on Saturday morning. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Meari’s circulation. Much of the heavier rain was falling south and east of Tokyo. Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring along the coast of Honshu southeast of Tokyo.

Tropical Storm Meari was moving under the southern part of an upper level trough centered northwest of Japan. The upper level trough was producing southwesterly winds that were steering Meari toward the northeast. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Meari will move east of Japan during the next 24 hours. The rain over Honshu will diminish when Meari moves away from the coast.

Tropical Storm Meari will move through an environment unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next several days. Meari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26˚C. The upper level trough will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Meari’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The combination of colder Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate vertical wind shear could cause Tropical Storm Meari to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Meari could strengthen a little during the transition to an extatropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Meari Forms South of Japan

Tropical Storm Meari formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Meari was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 136.0°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan. Meari was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean south of Japan strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Meari. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Meari was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Meari’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Tropical Storm Meari was under the southern part of a narrow upper level ridge south of Japan that extended from east to west. The upper level ridge was producing northerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Meari. The winds were causing vertical wind shear and they were the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Meari. The wind in the other parts of Meari’s circulation was blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Meari will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Meari will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. The narrow upper level ridge south of Japan will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next 12 hours. The wind shear will inhibit intensification during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Meari will move under the axis of the upper level ridge on Friday. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and the vertical wind shear will decrease on Friday. Tropical Storm Meari will be in an environment favorable for intensification while it is under the axis of the ridge.

Tropical Storm Meari will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Meari toward the north during the next 18 hours. Meari will move toward the northeast later on Friday after it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Meari will approach the coast of Honshu near Tokyo in 36 hours. Meari could be a strong tropical storm when it nears Tokyo. Tropical Storm Meari will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the region around Tokyo on Saturday.

Typhoon Mindulle Passes South of Tokyo

Typhoon Mindulle passed south of Tokyo on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Mindulle was located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 140.0°E which put it about 340 miles (545 km) south of Tokyo, Japan. Mindulle was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

The core of Typhoon Mindulle passed well to the south of Tokyo on Thursday. However, the circulation around Typhoon Mindulle was so large, that bands of showers and thunderstorms on the northern periphery of Mindulle were bringing gusty winds and rain to parts of Honshu. Winds to typhoon force extended out 130 miles (210 km) on the eastern side of Typhoon Mindulle. Winds to typhoon force extended out 75 miles in the western half of Mindulle. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mindulle was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 37.6 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.5.

Typhoon Mindulle weakened as it moved over cooler water and into a region where westerly winds in the upper levels caused more vertical wind shear. A larger eye was present at the center of Mindulle, but breaks were developing in the ring of thunderstorms around the eye. The upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes were beginning to affect the structure of Typhoon Mindulle. Those winds were blowing toward the top of Mindulle’s circulation and they were causing increasing vertical wind shear. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of the typhoon. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The combination of cooler water and more wind shear was causing Typhoon Mindulle to start a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The westerly winds in the upper levels will steer Typhoon Mindulle quickly toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Mindulle will pass well to the east of Honshu and Hokkaido. Bands on the northern side of Typhoon Mindulle could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to coastal parts of northern Honshu and eastern Hokkaido. Big waves will affect shipping southeast of Japan. Mindulle will weaken gradually during the next 48 hours while it makes a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Typhoon Mindulle Strengthens Back to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Typhoon Mindulle strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane west-southwest of Iwo To on Tuesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Mindulle was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 135.6°E which put it about 390 miles (630 km) west-southwest of Iwo To. Mindulle was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

Typhoon Mindulle strengthened back to the equivalent of a major hurricane after it completed several Eyewall Replacement Cycles. A large circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was present at the center of Typhoon Mindulle. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Mindulle. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Mindulle grew even larger after it completed the Eyewall Replacement Cycles. Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Mindulle. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 235 miles (380 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mindulle was 22.1. The Hurricane size Index (HSI) was 27.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.5.

Typhoon Mindulle will move through an environment capable of sustaining a powerful typhoon during the next 36 hours. Mindulle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mindulle could strengthen gradually during the next 36 hours.

Typhoon Mindulle will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 48 hours. The high pressure system will steer Mindulle toward the north during the next 24 hours. Typhoon Mindulle will start to move toward the northeast after it moves around the western end of the high. On its anticipated track Typhoon Mindulle will pass west of Iwo To during the next 24 hours. Mindulle cold be south of Tokyo in 48 hours.

Typhoon Mindulle Develops Concentric Eyewalls

Large Typhoon Mindulle developed concentric eyewalls southwest of Iwo To on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mindulle was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 136.4°E which put it about 445 miles (720 km) southwest of Iwo To. Mindulle moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Typhoon Mindulle developed concentric eyewalls on Sunday when the inner end of a rainband wrapped around an existing eye and eyewall. When the larger outer eyewall formed, much of the low level convergence of air shifted to the outer eyewall. The inner eyewall began to weaken because there was less low level convergence into it. Since the strongest winds were occurring in the existing inner eyewall, the maximum wind speed decreased when it weakened. The inner eyewall was still present, although it was much weaker. There was a break in the northwestern part of the outer eyewall. The existence of the two eyewalls was disrupting the inner core of Typhoon Mindulle.

The ongoing Eyewall Replacement Cycle was causing the circulation around Typhoon Mindulle to get larger. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Mindulle. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (330 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mindulle was 23.6. The Hurricane size Index (HSI) was 23.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.8.

Typhoon Mindulle will move through an environment capable of sustaining a powerful typhoon during the next 36 hours. Mindulle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The ongoing Eyewall Replacement Cycle will likely cause Typhoon Mindulle to weaken during the next 12 hours. If the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall becomes more well developed, then Mindulle could strengthen again. Typhoon Mindulle will move slowly. The strong winds in Mindulle could mix cooler water to the surface. Cooler water and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle could limit the potential for Typhoon Mindulle to intensify.

Typhoon Mindulle will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Mindulle slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Mindulle could be west of Iwo To in 48 hours. Mindulle could be south of Tokyo in four days.

Tropical Storm Chanthu Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Japan

Tropical Storm Chanthu brought gusty winds and rain to parts of Japan on Friday. At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Chanthu was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 130.6°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Fukuoka, Japan. Chanthu was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Chanthu brought gusty winds to northern Kyushu and western Honshu on Friday. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Chanthu. The strongest winds were occurring in the parts of Chanthu’s circulation that were over water and in the mountains of western Japan. The heaviest rain was falling on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Chanthu.

Tropical Storm Chanthu will be steered quickly toward the east-northeast by the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Tropical Storm Chanthu will move across Honshu during the next two days. The center of Tropical Storm Chanthu could be near Kyoto in 24 hours and near Tokyo in 36 hours. The upper level westerly winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear and movement across land will cause Chanthu to weaken gradually during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Lupit Brings Rain to Japan

Tropical Storm Lupit brought rain to Japan on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Lupit was located at latitude 32.3°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Miyazaki, Japan. Lupit was moving toward the east-northeast at 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Lupit made landfall on the coast of Kyushu near Kagoshima on Sunday. Lupit was being steered quickly toward the east-northeast by an upper level trough near the Korean Peninsula. The trough was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Lupit’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were affecting the distribution of rain in Tropical Storm Lupit. Most of the heavier rain was falling in bands north and east of the center of Lupit. The heavier rain was falling over Shikoku, northern Kyushu and southwestern Honshu. Bands south and west of the center of circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in the southern half of Tropical Storm Lupit. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) on the south side of Lupit. The winds in the northern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The trough near the Korean Peninsula will steer Tropical Storm Lupit quickly toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Lupit will move over the southern Sea of Japan. The center of Tropcial Storm Lupit could be near northern Honshu in 36 hours. Rain will spread over the rest of Honshu and Hokkaido during the next two days. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Lupit will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification. Lupit will move over water in the Sea of Japan where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The lower part of Lupit’s circulation will also be disrupted while it passes over land. Tropical Storm Lupit is not likely to strengthen significantly and it could weaken if the center does not move over the Sea of Japan.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Mirinae was moving eastward away from Japan. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Mirinae was located at latitude 36.6°N and longitude 144.7°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Tokyo, Japan. Mirinae was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.