Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan formed over the South Indian Ocean east of Diego Garcia on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garcia was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 1190 miles (1925 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Flamboyan was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.
A distinct low level center of circulation developed inside a large areas of showers and thunderstorms east of Diego Garcia on Saturday and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan. The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan organized steadily during the day. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving the core of the circulation. Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping away mass from the tropical cyclone in all directions. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two. Flamboyan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. It is located under an upper level ridge and the upper level winds are weak. Flamboyan will move through an area where there is little vertical wind shear. Warm water and little shear will allow Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan to intensify and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge, which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-southwest. Flamboyan will turn more toward the south when it rounds the western end of the ridge. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Flamboyan will move farther away from Cocos Island and it will pass well southeast of Diego Garcia.