Tag Archives: Tropical Cyclone Guambe

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Moves away from Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe moved away from Mozambique on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 29.1°S and longitude 38.1°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe appeared to develop concentric eyewalls on Saturday which caused the circulation to weaken. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, small inner eyewall dissipated. There were fewer thunderstorms around the center of Guambe on Saturday night. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Guambe contained more showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be capable of sustaining a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C, but it will gradually move over colder water. An upper level trough south of Africa will approach Tropical Cyclone Guambe from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Guambe. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear when they reach Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The combination of more vertical wind shear and colder water will cause the structure of Guambe to being a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Guambe toward the southeast during the next two days. On its anticipated track Guambe will move farther away from Mozambique. Tropical Cyclone Guambe is forecast to pass well to the south of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Guambe strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 36.4°E which put it about 260 miles (415 km) east of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe continued to intensify over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel on Friday. A small circular eye with a diameter of 8 miles (13 km) was present at the center of Guambe. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Tropical Cyclone Guambe generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Guambe.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe was relatively small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Guambe. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) on the western side of the circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Guambe was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.0.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing small eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Guambe to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel to the coast of Mozambique. The center of Guambe is forecast to remain over the Mozambique Channel, but rainbands on the western side of the tropical cyclone could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the coast of southern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Intensifies East of Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified east of Mozambique on Thursday. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 24.2°S and longitude 37.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east of Inhambane, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe intensified to nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday night. A small circular eye at the center of Guambe was evident on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Guambe. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 6 hours. Guambe could intensify rapidly for a period of time and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel to the coast of Mozambique. Rainbands on the western side of Guambe could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the coast of southern Mozambique.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe Forms over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Guambe formed over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 37.5°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east-northeast of Vilanculos, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system moved eastward from southern Africa over the Mozambique Channel and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Guambe exhibited more organization after it moved over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Guambe. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be very favorable for inensification during the next 48 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Guambe will strengthen during the next 48 hours and it could intensify rapidly after an inner core develops. Guambe is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high will steer Guambe slowly toward the south during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move parallel, but close to the coast of Mozambique. Guambe will produce gusty winds and it will drop heavy rain near the coast of Mozambique.