Tag Archives: Tropical Depression 02E

Tropical Depression 2E Prompts Tropical Storm Watch By Mexico

The National Hurricane Center designated former Invest 91E as Tropical Depression 2E and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Puerto Escondido.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression 2E was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 97.8°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed closer to the center of a broad area of low pressure previously designated as Invest 91E on Wednesday morning.  The improved organization prompted the National Hurricane Center to classify the system as Tropical Depression 2E.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around a tighter center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were strengthening in the outer portions of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the inner part of the circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping out mass to the north and west of the depression.

Tropical Depression 2E will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 30°C to 31°C.  An upper level ridge centered east of the depression will generate southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will generate some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening.  The circulation around the upper level ridge could actually enhance upper level divergence to the north of the depression.  Tropical Depression 2E is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next several days.

A subtropical high east of the depression is steering the system slowly toward the northeast.  A slow northerly motion is forecast for the next day or two.  Forecast guidance from the numerical models diverges when the system approaches Mexico.  Some models continue to move the depression inland over Mexico.  Other models suggest that the steering winds will weaken and that the system will stall before it reaches the coast.  The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the depression stalling very near the coast and then turning westward during the weekend.

Bands of rain in the outer part of the circulation are already moving over the coast.  Tropical Depression 2E will produce locally heavy rainfall over parts of southern Mexico and there is the potential for dangerous flash floods.