Tag Archives: Tropical Depression 03E

TD 03E Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Calvin

Tropical Depression 03E strengthened into Tropical Storm Calvin on Monday as it lingered south of Mexico.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Calvin was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico.  Calvin was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca De Pijijiapan to Punta Maldonado.

A band of thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the southern side of the center of circulation of former Tropical Depression 03E and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Calvin in its 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory on Monday.  Calvin is a small tropical storm and winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the outer portions of the circulation which are over the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Calvin is in an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  However, Calvin is also very near the coast of Mexico and it could start to pull drier air into the western part of the circulation at any time.  Calvin is under the eastern end of an upper level ridge which is producing northerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical storm.  The northerly winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear may be contributing to the location of the main band thunderstorms south of the center of circulation.

The future intensity of Tropical Storm Calvin will depend on whether or not it remains over the Pacific Ocean.  If Calvin stays over the open water, then further intensification is possible.  If Calvin moves closer to the coast, then further intensification is much less likely.  If Calvin moves inland, it will dissipate quickly.

Tropical Storm Calvin is in an area where the steering currents are weak and it moved very slowly toward the west-northwest during the past 18 hours.  A subtropical ridge north of Calvin is forecast to begin to steer the tropical storm more quickly toward the west-northwest.  If that happens, Calvin could make landfall on the coast of Mexico near Puerto Angel in 12 to 24 hours.  Locally heavy rainfall remain the biggest risks with Tropical Storm Calvin.

Formation of Tropical Depression 03E Prompts Mexico to Issue Warning for Coast

Tropical Depression 03E formed out of the cluster of thunderstorms formerly known as Invest 92E and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the south coast.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression 03E was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 95.0°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca De Pijijiapan to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A distinct center of circulation developed within an area of thunderstorms that had been lingering over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  More thunderstorms formed closer to the center of circulation and the National  Hurricane Center determined that there was sufficient organization to designate the system as Tropical Depression 03E.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in a partial band close to the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming in bands in other parts of the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center have not yet begun to generate significant upper level divergence.

Tropical Depression 03E will be moving through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating moderate vertical wind shear which is restricting upper level divergence to the east of the circulation.  The shear is inhibiting intensification.  Tropical Depression 03E will probably be able to extract enough energy to intensify into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression 03E is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  A generally northwesterly motion is forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression 03E could approach the southern coast of Mexico in 24 to 36 hours.  It could be a tropical storm by that time.  Tropical Depression 03E is likely to bring gusty winds, locally heavy rain and the potential for flash floods to parts of southern Mexico.