Tag Archives: Tropical Low

Tropical Cyclone Megan Brings Wind and Rain to Pellew Islands

Tropical Cyclone Megan brought wind and rain to the Pellew Islands on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 137.1°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Megan brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Pellew Islands on Sunday. An automated weather station on Centre Island reported a sustained wind speed of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 73 m.p.h. (117 km/h). The weather station measured 6.67 inches (169.4 mm) of rain and it was still raining at the time of the latest observation.

Tropical Cyclone Megan continued to intensify on Sunday. A small circular eye was present at the center of Megan’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Storms near the center of Megan’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Megan was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Megan. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Megan was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.4. Tropical Cyclone Megan was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Although more and more of the western side of Tropical Cyclone Megan will move over land, Megan could intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan will make landfall on the coast of the Northern Territory southeast of Port McArthur in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will continue to produce strong winds and heavy rain in the Pellew Islands. Megan will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast southeast of Port McArthur is likely to experience sustained winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations. A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low continued to churn over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 112.7°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) north of Exmouth. Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Megan intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 137.5°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north-northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia. A Watch was in effect for Mornington Island.

Tropical Cyclone Megan intensified rapidly on Saturday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Megan’s circulation. A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Megan’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Megan.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through and environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Megan will intensify during the next 24 hours. Megan could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Megan could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megan will approach the coast of the Northern Territory near Port McArthur in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast near Port McArthur is likely to experience winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain was already falling on parts of Groote Eylandt. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations, A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low continued to spin over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 113.7°E which put it about 385 miles (625 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Megan Develops Over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Megan developed over the Gulf of Carpentaria early on Saturday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 137.6°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north-northeast of Borroloola, Australia. Megan was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island, Australia. A Watch was in effect for Mornington Island.

A low pressure system over the Gulf of Carpentaria strengthened early on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Megan. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Megan was well organized. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Megan’s circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan. Storms near the center of Megan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Megan.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move through and environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Megan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Carpentaria. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Megan will intensify during the next 24 hours. Megan is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. Tropical Cyclone Megan could intensify rapidly at times.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Megan toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Megan will approach the coast of the Northern Territory near Port McArthur in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Megan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast from Alyangula to Mornington Island. The part of the coast near Port McArthur is likely to experience winds to hurricane/typhoon force. Heavy rain was already falling on parts of Groote Eylandt. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations, A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Top End and Barkly in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Megan could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters along the coast.

Elsewhere, a Tropical Low was spinning over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 114.0°E which put it about 345 miles (555 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Low Forms over Timor Sea

A Tropical Low formed over the Timor Sea northwest of Darwin Australia on Saturday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 10.3°S and longitude 129.0°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) northwest of Darwin, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island.

A low pressure system over the Timor Sea northwest of Darwin, Australia strengthened on Saturday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. Most thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern side of the Tropical Low consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The Tropical Low was moving under the northern part of an upper level ridge over northern Australia. The ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of the Tropical Low. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. However, the upper level ridge over northern Australia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The Tropical Low is likely to intensify gradually during the next 36 hours. It could become a named tropical cyclone during that time.

The Tropical Low will move around the northwest part of a high pressure system over western Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia during the weekend.

Two Tropical Lows Form over South Pacific

Two tropical lows formed over the South Pacific Ocean on Saturday morning. The first Tropical Low formed over the Coral Sea east of the Cape York Peninsula. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of that Tropical Low was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 147.8°E which put it about 240 miles (350 km) northeast of Cooktown, Australia. The Tropical Low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A well defined low level center of circulation formed in a small low pressure system over the Coral Sea on Saturday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. A Watch was issued for the portion of the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The distribution of thunderstorms around the Tropical Low was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge centered east of Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The Tropical Low could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move north of a high pressure system centered east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipate track the Tropical Low could approach the eastern Cape York Peninsula between Lockhart River and Cooktown in 36 hours. It could be a named tropical cyclone when it approaches the coast.

The second Tropical Low developed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the second Tropical Low was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 173.3°E which put it about 320 miles (515 km) west-southwest of Nadi, Fiji. That Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a large low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean west of Fiji and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as a tropical low. The circulation around the second Tropical Low was much larger than the one over the Coral Sea, but the distribution of thunderstorms was also asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands north and east of the center of circulation. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from Tropical Low.

The second Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The Tropical Low is likely to intensify into a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The second Tropical Low will be in an area where the steering currents are weak during the next 24 hours. It is likely to meander slowly over the South Pacific Ocean between Fiji and Vanuatu during the next day or so.

Tropical Low Drops Rain on Darwin

A Tropical Low dropped rain on the area around Darwin, Australia on Saturday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.9°S and longitude 130.4°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) southwest of Darwin, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the east-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Tropical Low that developed over the Timor Sea late last week made landfall on the coast of Australia near Dundee Beach on Saturday. Bands revolving around the center of the Tropical Low brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the area around Darwin. A weather station at the airport in Darwin reported a sustained wind speed of 27 m.p.h. (44 km/h) and a wind gust of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h). The weather stationed measured 2.2 inches (56 mm) of rain. A station in Batchelor measured 5.7 inches (144.8 mm) of rain and a station in Dum In Mirrie measured 7.1 inches (180.6 mm) of rain. Flood Watches were in effect for portions of northern Australia.

The Tropical Low is forecast to move toward the east-southeast during the next several days. On its anticipated track the Tropical Low will move across northern Australia. It will continue to drop heavy rain over the northern part of the Northern Territory. The Tropical Low could move over the Gulf of Carpentaria in 48 hours. If the Tropical Low moves back over water, there is a chance it could strengthen to a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Low Forms over Timor Sea

A Tropical Low formed over the Timor Sea north of Darwin, Australia on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 9.8°S and longitude 129.6°E which put it about 200 miles (325 km) north-northwest of Darwin, Australia. The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Point Stuart, Northern Territory to Kalumburu, Western Australia including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

A low pressure system over the Timor Sea north of Darwin, Australia exhibited more organization on Thursday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of the Tropical Low. The strongest rainbands were occurring in the western half of the circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. It will will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. The Tropical Low will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge centered north of Australia. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The Tropical Low is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western side of a high pressure system centered north of Australia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the south during the next day or so. On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could approach Bathurst Island and Melville Island within 24 hours. The Tropical Low could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to a portion of the coast of the Northern Territory during the weekend.

Tropical Low Develops Near West Timor

A tropical low developed near West Timor on Saturday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 123.6°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Kupang, Indonesia. The tropical low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An area of low pressure near West Timor exhibited more organization on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology classified the system as a tropical low. Visible and microwave satellite images showed a distinct low level center of circulation. More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical low. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. The tropical low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical low is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by early next week.

The tropical low will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. It will remain near West Timor during that time. Thunderstorms in rainbands will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur. A high pressure system over Australia will begin to steer the tropical low toward the southwest in a day or so. On its anticipated track the system will remain northwest of Western Australia during the next few days.

Tropical Low Forms over Gulf of Carpentaria

A Tropical Low formed over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday afternoon. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 139.5°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west of Kowanyama, Australia. It was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Watches were issued for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Aurukun to Karumba and for Mornington Island.

Thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday afternoon and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. The circulation around the Tropical Low was still organizing. Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of circulation. More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of the Tropical Low. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The Tropical Low will move over water in the Gulf of Carpentaria where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The Tropical Low will intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a tropical storm.

The Tropical Low will move south of a high pressure system centered north of Australia during the next 24 hours. The high will steer the Tropical Low toward the east. On its anticipated track the Tropical Low could approach the southwest coast of Queensland in about 24 hours. The steering winds could weaken in a day or so and the Tropical Low could stall near the coast. Even if the center of the Tropical Low does not make landfall, bands in the eastern half of the circulation could drop heavy rain over parts of northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Low Strengthens over Gulf of Carpentaria

A tropical low strengthened over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 138.5°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Mornington Island. The tropical low was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland to Pormpuraaw. The Watch included Mornington Island.

The circulation around the tropical low exhibited better organization on Saturday. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical low. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge where the winds are weak. There will be little vertical wind shear. The tropical low will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a tropical storm.

The tropical low will move south of a high pressure system centered north of Australia. The high will steer the tropical low toward the southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical low will make landfall on the coast of Queensland between Karumba and Gilbert River Mouth in about 24 hours. It will be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it makes landfall. The tropical low could stall when it moves inland, which would cause a prolonged period of heavy rain. Flash floods could occur in parts of northern Queensland.