Tropical Storm Bud brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja Calfornia on Tuesday while a new tropical depression formed south of Acapulco, Mexico. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Bud was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas. The government of Mexico issued new Tropical Storm Watches for the portions of the coast from La Paz to San Evaristo and from Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico.
Rainbands on the northern side of the circulation of Tropical Storm Bud were producing winds to tropical storm force over the southern end of Baja California. New thunderstorms began to form when a band north and east of the center of circulation moved over the southern part of the Gulf of California. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the Gulf is near 27°C which is warmer than the water of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California. The additional energy from the ocean may have contributed to the formation of the new storms.
A trough in the upper levels is forecast to steer Tropical Storm Bud toward the north-northeast during the next several days, Bud could maintain its intensity for another 24 hours if the center of circulation passes southeast of Baja California. If the center passes over Baja, the mountains would disrupt the circulation in the lower levels and Tropical Storm Bud would weaken. In either case Tropical Storm Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California for another day or so. Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico later on Friday. Heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some locations.
Tropical Depression Four-E formed south of Acapulco on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 100.1°W which put it about 100 miles (155 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb. Because of the proximity to the coast the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado.
A center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Mexico and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four-E. The circulation was still organizing. Several fragmented bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in the outer portions of the circulation. The center of circulation was broad and there were several smaller cyclonic rotations swirling around inside the broader center.
Tropical Depression Four-E will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The proximity to the coast will be the primary factor inhibiting intensification. The circulation could pull in drier air from Mexico. Tropical Depression Four-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday.
Tropical Depression Four-E will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge, but the steering currents are likely to be weak. The depression is expected to move slowly toward the north-northwest during the next day or two. On its anticipated track the center of the depression could move near the coast during the weekend. It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. The rain could cause flash floods.