Tag Archives: Tropical Storm Cristobal

Tropical Storm Cristobal Causes Storm Surge on Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Cristobal caused a storm surge on the Gulf Coast on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 90.2°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) north-northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Cristobal was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida.

The large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal blew water toward the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.  The wind produced a rise in the water level from northwest Florida to southeast Louisiana.  The highest storm surges occurred along the coast of Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.  The water level reached 7.47 feet (2.28 m) at the Waveland Yacht Club in Mississippi.  The storm surge was 7.62 feet (2.32 m) at Shell Beach in Louisiana.  The storm surge covered coastal roads in Grand Isle, Louisiana and Biloxi, Mississippi.

The broad center of Tropical Storm Cristobal passed across the Lower Mississippi River delta on Sunday afternoon before it moved over New Orleans.  Cristobal began to weaken slowly as it moved inland.  Winds to tropical storm force were still occurring in the southeastern part of the circulation which was still over the Gulf of Mexico.  Most of the rain was falling in bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Cristobal.  Locally heavy rain fell over Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will move over Louisiana and Arkansas on Monday.  Cristobal will continue to weaken slowly as it moves farther inland.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.  Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas.

Large Tropical Storm Cristobal Churns Toward Louisiana

Large Tropical Storm Cristobal churned toward the coast of Louisiana on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 90.2°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Grand Isle, Louisiana.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal continued to be very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) to the east of the center of Cristobal.  A thunderstorm in a rainband on the eastern periphery of the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal produced a tornado near Orlando, Florida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the western half of the circulation.  The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force near the center of circulation.  The center passed just to the west of NOAA buoy 42001 on Saturday evening.  The buoy measured a surface pressure of 29.34 inches (993.8 mb).  More thunderstorms appeared to be forming north and south of the center of circulation on Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear but the the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will strengthen on Sunday.  If thunderstorms consolidate around the center of circulation, then there is a chance that Cristobal could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system on Sunday.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north.  A ridge in the middle troposphere will move north of Tropical Storm Cristobal later on Sunday.  The ridge will turn Cristobal toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.  The center of Cristobal could make landfall between Grand Isle and Morgan City.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will bring gusty winds to Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.  Those winds will push water toward the coast.  A storm surge of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) will be possible.  The water level could rise 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in parts of southeastern Louisiana.  Areas outside of levee protection systems could go under water.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will drop heavy rain over parts of southern Mississippi and Southeastern Louisiana.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for those regions.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Slowly Strengthens

Tropical Storm Cristobal slowly strengthened on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 24.2°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 345 miles (555 km) south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida.

Although Tropical Storm Cristobal still did not exhibit the typical structure of a tropical storm, the circulation around it was more organized on Saturday morning.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation.  The strongest winds were occurring in a part of this band about 100 miles (160 km) south of the center of Cristobal.  A few thunderstorms formed just to the west of the center of circulation.  The structure of the wind field around Tropical Storm Cristobal was still asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the western side of Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  The flow around the ridge will enhance upper level divergence to the northeast of Cristobal.  Enhanced upper level divergence could pump away enough mass to allow the surface pressure to decrease.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will strengthen during the next 24 hours.  If more thunderstorms form close to the center of circulation and an inner core develops, then there is a chance Cristobal could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 18 to 24 hours.  A ridge in the middle levels will move north of Tropical Storm Cristobal on Sunday afternoon.  That ridge could force Cristobal to move toward the north-northwest for a few hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.

The large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal means that it will bring gusty winds to Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and they will cause a storm surge on the northern Gulf Coast.  The water level could rise 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) along the coast.  The storm surge could be 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in parts of southeast Louisiana.  Areas outside levee systems could go under water.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will also drop heavy rain over southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana.  Fresh water flooding could occur.  Flood Watches have been issued for parts of those regions.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Moves Toward Louisiana

Tropical Storm Cristobal moved toward Louisiana on Friday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 90.1°W which put it about 440 miles (705 km) south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Cristobal was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Cristobal strengthened slowly after the center of circulation moved over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Cristobal moved under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The flow around the ridge created upper level divergence which pumped away mass and caused the surface pressure to decrease by several millibars.  Cristobal strengthened back to a tropical storm when the wind speed increased in response to the decrease in pressure.  The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Tropical Storm Cristobal remained asymmetrical.  The strongest rainbands wrapped around the eastern and northern sides if the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) on the eastern side of Cristobal.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) northwest of the center of circulation.  The winds in the southwestern part of the circulation were mostly below tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will continue to move under the western side of the upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification.  However, the ridge will continue to create upper level divergence which will support intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Cristobal will strengthen on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Cristobal toward the north during the next 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal will approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal is large and winds to tropical storm force will reach the coast around the northern Gulf of Mexico several hours before the center makes landfall.  Cristobal will bring gusty winds to the portion of the coast from Northwest Florida to Southeast Louisiana on Sunday.  Those winds will blow water toward the coast and they will cause a storm surge of 1 to 4 feet (0.3 to 1.3 meters) in many locations.  The water could rise by 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in some locations.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will also drop heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, Southwest Alabama, Southern Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana.  Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Drops Heavy Rain on Campeche

Tropical Storm Cristobal dropped heavy rain on Campeche on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 91.8°W which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos,, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal move slowly onto the coast of Mexico just west of Ciudad del Carmen on Wednesday.  The circulation around Cristobal began to weaken slowly as the center moved over land.  However, the large circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal meant that a significant portion of the tropical storm was still over water.  That allowed Cristobal to extract energy from the Bay of Campeche to support its circulation.

A weather radar at Sabancuy, Mexico showed that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal remained well organized.  Strong bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  The bands were dropping heavy rain over parts of Campeche and flooding was likely in some areas that received persistent heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will be near the center of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG) during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The steering currents are weak at the center of the CAG and it will likely cause Cristobal to move in a slow counterclockwise loop on Thursday.  The CAG will contract around Tropical Storm Cristobal during the next day or so.  A high pressure system over the western North Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea will start to steer Cristobal toward the north on Friday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cristobal could approach the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico by late in the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken slowly while the center is over land.  It could weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday.  However, Cristobal will continue to drop heavy rain over Campeche and parts of the Yucatan peninsula.  Very serious flooding could result from the heavy rainfall.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen once the center of circulation moves back over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

Tropical Depression Three Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Cristobal

Former Tropical Depression Three strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal on Tuesday.  At 12:15 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 92.7°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.  Cristobal was moving toward the southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz, Mexico

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigating former Tropical Depression Three on Tuesday found sustained winds of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Cristobal.  The formation of Tropical Storm Cristobal on June 2 is the earliest date for the formation on the third named storm over the Atlantic Basin (including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) in the historical record.

The reconnaissance plane found that the circulation around Tropical Storm Cristobal was continuing to get better organized.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  Bands of showers were revolving around the center of Cristobal.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Cristobal will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over the western Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Cristobal is likely to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will move around the northwestern part of a larger counterclockwise circulation sometimes called a Central American Gyre (CAG).  The CAG will steer Cristobal toward the southwest during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will move more toward the south on Tuesday night.  The larger CAG will slowly contract around the circulation of Cristobal during the next several days.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will meander slowly near the south coast of the Bay of Campeche while the CAG contracts.  Eventually, a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean will steer Cristobal northward toward the U.S.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will mix cooler water to the surface while it meanders over the southern Bay of Campeche.  The cooler water will reduce the energy available to Cristobal and the tropical storm could weaken during the middle of the week.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will weaken even more if the center of circulation moves over land.  Cristobal will drop heavy rain over Campeche, Tabasco and eastern Veracruz.  Prolonged heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.