Tag Archives: Western North Pacific

Dangerous Typhoon Mangkhut Approaches Northern Luzon

Dangerous Typhoon Mangkhut approached northern Luzon on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 126.2°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) east-northeast of Manila.  Mangkhut was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (335 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 905 mb.

Typhoon Mangkhut has a large powerful circulation.  There is a circular eye with a diameter of about 30 miles (50 km) at the center of circulation.  A number of bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Winds to typhoon force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 265 miles (425 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mangkhut was 38.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 33.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 72.2.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Mangkhut is very similar in size and strength to what Hurricane Katrina was when Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

Typhoon Mangkhut will move through an environment that is very favorable for strong typhoons during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Mangkhut will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area where there will be little vertical wind shear.  It is difficult for a typhoon or hurricane to continue to generate enough upper level divergence to stay extremely strong for a long period of time.  However, Typhoon Mangkhut could remain the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale until it reaches northern Luzon.  Mangkhut will weaken when the center moves over northern Luzon.

Typhoon Mangkhut is moving south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge is steering Mangkhut toward the northwest and that general motion is forecast to continue.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut will reach northern Luzon east of Tuguegarao in about 18 hours.  Mangkhut is capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.  It will produce extremely strong winds over northern Luzon.  There will be a significant storm surge at the coast.  Locally heavy rain will cause flash floods.

Typhoon Mangkhut Strengthens Into Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Typhoon Mangkhut strengthened into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 138.0°E which put it about 290 miles (470 km) north of Yap.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Typhoon Mangkhut is strong and well organized.  It has a symmetrical circulation with a circular eye at the center.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surround the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mangkhut.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Typhoon Mangkhut has a large circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 210 miles (375 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mangkhut is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 22.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 57.1.  Typhoon Mangkhut is capable of causing extensive catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Mangkhut will be moving through an environment very favorable for powerful typhoons.  Mangkhut will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through an area were the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Mangkhut could maintain its intensity for several more days unless eyewall replacement cycles cause fluctuations in the wind speed.

Typhoon Mangkhut is moving south a ridge of high pressure over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Mangkhut in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut could approach northern Luzon in about three days.  Mangkhut could be near Hong Kong in about five days.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Barijat was moving southeast of Hong Kong.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Barijat was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 116.5°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Hong Kong.  Barijat was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Typhoon Mangkhut Brings Wind and Rain to the Marianas

Typhoon Mangkhut brought wind and rain to the Marianas on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mangkhut was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 146.6°E which put it about 175 miles (285 km) east-northeast of Guam.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam.  The airport on Saipan was reporting sustained winds of 41 m.p.h. (66 km/h) and wind gusts to 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h).

Typhoon Mangkhut had a well organized circulation.  There was a circular eye at the center of Mangkhut.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mangkhut.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mangkhut was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 27.4.  Typhoon Mangkhut was capable of causing regional significant damage.

Typhoon Mangkhut will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Mangkhut will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Mangkhut will cause easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Mangkhut could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

The ridge north of Typhoon Mangkhut will steer the typhoon in a westerly direction.  The core of Typhoon Mangkhut will move over the Marianas during the next few hours.  It will bring strong winds and it will drop locally heavy rain.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Mangkhut could be east of Luzon later this week.

Tropical Storm Mangkhut Causes Typhoon Watch for Marianas

Tropical Storm Mangkhut caused a Typhoon Watch to be issued for the Marianas on Saturday.  A Typhoon Watch was in effect for Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Mangkhut was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 156.0°E which put it about 760 miles (1225 km) east of Guam.  Mangkhut was moving toward the west at 24 m.p.h. (39 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Mangkhut became much better organized on Saturday despite its rapid westward movement.  A primary band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern side of the center of circulation and an eye appeared to be forming.  Winds near the core of Mangkhut were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Mangkhut.  The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level ridge north of Mangkhut was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason why the strongest rainbands were west of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Mangkhut will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Mangkhut will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move into an area where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be less vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Mangkhut will intensify into a typhoon on Sunday and it could intensify rapidly once the inner core and eye are fully formed.

Tropical Storm Mangkhut will move south of a ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Mangkhut in a general westerly direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Mangkhut could reach the Marianas in about 36 hours.  It is likely to be a typhoon at that time.  Mangkhut could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian.

Typhoon Jebi Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Powerful Typhoon Jebi strengthened into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 141.0°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) south of Iwo To.  Jebi was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 210 m.p.h. (335 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 907 mb.

The circulation of Typhoon Jebi was very well organized and symmetrical.  There was a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

Jebi is a large and powerful typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 195 miles (315 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Jebi was 40.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.6 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 62.0.

Typhoon Jebi may have reached its maximum intensity.  Microwave satellite imagery suggested that an inner rainband may have wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall.  If that has occurred, then an eyewall replacement cycle may have begun.  An eyewall replacement cycle will cause a typhoon to weaken when the inner eyewall, where the strongest wind are, dissipates.

Typhoon Jebi will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Jebi will gradually turn toward the north as it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi should pass west of Iwo To.  Jebi could be approaching Japan in three days or so.

Typhoon Jebi Hits Northern Marianas

Typhoon Jebi hit the Northern Mariana Islands on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 146.2°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Pagan.  Jebi was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

Typhoon Jebi was very well organized.  There was a small eye at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Jebi.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.

Winds to typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 185 miles (295 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Jebi was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0.  Those indices indicate that Typhoon Jebi was capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Jebi will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Jebi is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours.  If an outer rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause the typhoon to weaken at least temporarily.

Typhoon Jebi will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Jebi will make a gradual turn toward the north during the next few days while it moves around the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi will move slowly away from the Northern Marianas.  Weather conditions should slowly improve when Jebi moves away.  The center of Jebi is forecast to pass south of Iwo To.  Typhoon Jebi could approach Honshu in four or five days.

Typhoon Jebi Intensifies Rapidly East of Northern Marianas

Typhoon Jebi intensified rapidly east of the Northern Marianas on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Jebi was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 149.8°E which put it about 270 miles (435 km) east of Pagan.  Jebi was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.  A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan in the Northern Marianas.

The circulation of Typhoon Jebi was very well organized and it was symmetrical.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Jebi.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out about 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Typhoon Jebi will be moving through an environment very favorable for further intensification.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Jebi is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Thursday.

Typhoon Jebi will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific for several more days.  The ridge will steer Jebi in a general westerly direction during that time.  Typhoon Jebi will reach the western end of the ridge in about 48 hours.  Jebi will make a gradual turn toward the north when it reaches the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Jebi will reach the northernmost Mariana Islands within 24 hours.  Jebi will be capable of causing major damage when it arrives.  Jebi is forecast to pass south of Iwo To, but it will turn toward the major islands of Japan during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Jebi Forms East of the Marianas

Tropical Storm Jebi formed east of the Marianas on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Jebi was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 156.6°E which put it about 745 miles (1200 km) east of Saipan.  Jebi was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in a cluster of showers and thunderstorms east of the Northern Marianas and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Jebi.  The circulation of Jebi was still organizing.  A primary rainband wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Jebi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Jebi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  Two upper level lows northwest and northeast of Jebi will enhance upper level divergence to the north of the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Jebi will strengthen and it could become a typhoon later this week.

Tropical Storm Jebi will move southwest of a ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen and it will steer Jebi in a general west-northwesterly direction during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Jebi could be near the northernmost Mariana Islands in about three days.  Jebi could be a typhoon by that time.  Jebi could be south of Iwo To by the end of the week.

Typhoon Cimaron Brings Wind and Rain to Japan

Typhoon Cimaron brought wind and rain to Japan on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 35.9°N and longitude 135.1°E which put it about 70 miles west of Fukui, Japan.  Cimaron was moving toward the north at 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

The center of Typhoon Cimaron moved near the eastern end of Shikoku early on Wednesday.  Cimaron moved quickly northward and the center passed over Awaji Island.  Typhoon Cimaron made landfall on Honshu west of Kobe and Osaka near Akashi.  Cimaron continued to move quickly toward the north across Honshu and the center of circulation emerged over the Sea of Japan later on Thursday.  Kansai International Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  Komoda, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 63 m.p.h. (102 km/h).

Typhoon Cimaron dropped locally heavy rain over parts of Shikoku and southwestern Honshu.  Kobe measured 4.75 inches (120.5 mm) of rain and there could have been higher amounts in mountainous regions where the wind was blowing up the slopes.  The potential for flash floods exists in areas of steep terrain.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to weaken over the Sea of Japan.  It will move over cooler water.  In addition, an upper level trough over eastern Asia will produce strong westerly winds that will cause significant vertical wind shear.  The trough is forecast to turn Typhoon Lane toward the east and it could make another landfall over northern Honshu or Hokkaido.  Cimaron will weaken to a tropical storm, but it could drop heavy rain over those areas.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Soulik was making landfall on the southwestern coast of South Korea near Mokp’o.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Soulik was located at latitude 35.2°N and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Kunsan, South Korea.  Soulik was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

The upper level trough over eastern Asia was also causing strong vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Soulik.  Soulik was weakening as it approached the coast, but it will still be capable of dropping locally heavy rain over portions of South Korea.  The heavy rain could create the potential for flash floods.

Typhoon Soulik Strikes Cheju Island

Typhoon Soulik struck Cheju Island on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Soulik was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 125.7°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of Cheju Island.  Soulik was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

Typhoon Soulik had a large eye and the eastern eyewall, which was the strongest part of the circulation, moved directly over Cheju Island on Wednesday.  The island would have experienced winds to typhoon force and heavy rain.  The heavy rain could produce flash floods.  Typhoon Soulik weakened as it approached Cheju.  The circulation appeared to draw some drier air around the western and southern side of the circulation.  The heaviest rain was falling in the northern and eastern quadrants of the typhoon.  Soulik was moving over cooler water and an upper level trough over eastern Asia was causing vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough will turn Typhoon Soulik toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Soulik could pass near the southwestern tip of South Korea in about 12 hours.  Soulik could make landfall near Kunsan in about 24 hours.  The eastern side of Typhoon Soulik, which is the stronger side, will pass over much of South Korea during the next 24 hours.  Soulik will produce gusty winds and it will drop locally heavy rain.  The rain could produce flash floods on the Korean peninsula.

Elsewhere over the tropical Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Cimaron moved closer to Japan.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 135.6°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) south of Osaka, Japan.  Cimaron was moving toward the northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Cimaron is forecast to move quickly toward Japan during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Cimaron will approach the coasts of Shikoku and Honshu between Tokushima and Tanabe in about 12 hours.  Cimaron is forecast to be a typhoon when it makes landfall in Japan.  It will bring strong winds and Cimaron will drop locally heavy rain.  Flash floods could occur, especially in regions of steeper terrain.