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Tropical Cyclone Anika Hits Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Anika hit Western Australia on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 126.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h (12 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anika made landfall on the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu on Saturday morning. Anika was intensifying at the time of landfall. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Anika’s circulation and an eye was developing. The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Anika’s circulation.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between the Northern Territory and Western Australia and Kuri Bay. The Warning included Wyndham and Kalumburu. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Kuri Bay to Beagle Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Anika toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will move along the coast of Western Australia. Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the coast. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for the East, North and West Kimberly River and for the Fitzroy River.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will weaken slowly while it moves along the coast of Western Australia. However, since almost half of Anika’s circulation will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C, the weakening will occur slowly. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Anika could strengthen again, if the center of circulation moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Anika Develops over Timor Sea

Tropical Cyclone Anika developed over the Timor Sea west of Darwin, Australia on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anika was located at latitude 12.8°S and longitude 127.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north-northeast of Kalumburu, Australia. Anika was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Mitchell Plateau. The Warning included Wadeye, Wyndham and Kalumburu. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island. A Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Dundee Beach to Point Stuart. The Watch included Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Timor Sea strengthened on Friday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Anika. More thunderstorms developed around the center of Anika’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Anika. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Anika.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anika will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anika will strengthen during the next 24 hours and it could intensify rapidly. There is a chance that Anika could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Anika will be in a region where the steering winds are weak. A high pressure system over Australia will steer Anika slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Anika will approach the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu in 24 hours. Anika could become nearly stationary when it approaches the coast. Tropical Cyclone Anika will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia northeast of Kalumburu. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for the East Kimberly Rivers, North Kimberly Rivers and West Kimberly Rivers.

Tropical Low Forms West of Darwin

A Tropical Low formed west of Darwin, Australia on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 128.5°E which put it about 160 miles (255 km) west of Darwin, Australia. The Tropical Low was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around a small low pressure system over the Timor Sea west of Darwin, Australia exhibited more organization on Wednesday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands northwest of the center of the circulation. There was also a band of thunderstorms in the southwestern part of the Tropical Low. Bands in the northeastern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The Tropical Low will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 36 hours and it is forecast to remain nearly stationary. The Tropical Low will be in an environment somewhat favorable for intensification. The Tropical Low will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will be under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered over northern Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the Tropical Low. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The Tropical Low could gradually strengthen during the next 36 hours.

The Tropical Low is forecast to move toward Australia during the weekend. A Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from Point Stuart to Kalumburu. The Watch includes Darwin, Wyndham, Wadeye and the Tiwi Islands.

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther Drops Heavy Rain Over Northwestern Australia

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther dropped heavy rain over parts of northwestern Australia on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Esther was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 130.8°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Darwin, Australia.  Esther was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Cyclone Esther remained very well organized on Wednesday even though it had been moving across northern Australia for several days.  There was a distinct low level center of circulation.  The circulation was surrounded by bands of showers and thunderstorms.  Strong thunderstorms developed south of Darwin in a band in the northern part of the circulation.  The Darwin harbor reported a wind gust of 44 m.p.h. (72 km/h).  The Wyndham airport reported a wind gust of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h).

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther could strengthen back into a tropical cyclone if the center of circulation moves over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia.  Esther will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The Sea Surface Temperature near the west coast of Australia is near 30°C.  Esther will move under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Former Tropical Cyclone Esther could intensify rapidly if the center of circulation moves completely over water.

Former Tropical Cyclone Esther will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Australia during the next several days.  The high will steer Esther toward the west during the next 24 to 48 hours.  It will turn more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track the center of former Tropical Cyclone Esther will pass near the southern end of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand churned northwest of Australia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand was located at latitude 16.6°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) north of Learmonth, Australia.  Ferdinand was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.