Tag Archives: Yucatan

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Prompts Warnings for Cuba and Bahamas

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen prompted the governments of Cuba and the Bahamas to issue Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for portions of those countries on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 84.5°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also issued for the northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Island, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane investigated the system formerly known as Invest 93L on Friday afternoon.  The plane found sustained winds to tropical storm force.  The plane also found a broad circulation center with several smaller centers of circulation revolving around inside the broader center.  Based on the observations from the plane, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) chose not to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Philippe in its 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory.  However, NHC did change the designation of the system from Invest 93L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.  If a more well defined center of circulation develops, then NHC could still change designation of the system to Tropical Storm Philippe.

The circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is still organizing.  As mentioned above, there is a broad center of counterclockwise rotation.  There are also several smaller counterclockwise swirls within the broader center.  More showers and thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Friday afternoon.  The storms closer to the center of circulation were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping away mass to the northeast of the system.  Some bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in the outer portions of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The system is embedded in a flow over warm moist air.  However there is a stationary front northwest of the system and there is cooler, drier air north of the stationary front.  The system is currently under the western side of an upper level ridge.  The upper level winds are weak and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen could slowly intensify during the next 24 hours as the circulation becomes more well organized.

The ridge east of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is steering the system toward the north-northwest.  That general motion should continue for another six to twelve hours.  An upper level trough will approach the system from the west on Saturday and the trough will start to steer it more toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will approach Cuba on Saturday afternoon.  The center of the system will move south of the Florida Keys on Saturday night and it could move across the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

The system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to those locations.  The locally heavy rain could cause flooding.  There could be a storm surge of several feet (one to two meters) on parts of the south coast of Cuba, where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  There could also be some storm surge along the coasts of the Florida Keys.

Tropical Storm Selma Forms South of El Salvador

Tropical Storm Selma formed south of El Salvador on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 89.5°W which put it about 180 miles (290 km) south of San Salvador, El Salvador.  Selma was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of El Salvador.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the entire Pacific Coast of Guatemala.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed in a larger area of thunderstorms south of El Salvador on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Selma.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Selma is very asymmetrical.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms are located in the western half of the circulation.  There are bands of showers in the eastern half of the circulation.  An upper level ridge centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing easterly winds which are blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which is the primary reason for the asymmetrical structure of the circulation.  Selma is a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extend out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Selma will be moving through an environment that is neutral for intensification.  Selma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit further intensification.  If the upper level winds weaken, then some intensification may be possible.  However, if the upper level winds get stronger, then Selma could weaken to a tropical depression.

A large counterclockwise circulation centered over Nicaragua and Honduras is steering Tropical Storm Selma slowly toward the northwest and the general motion is expected to continue on Friday.  The upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula will weaken on Saturday and that will allow Tropical Storm Selma to move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Selma will make landfall on the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Selma will bring some gusty winds to the coast.  However, locally heavy rain and flash floods will be the primary risks associated with Tropical Storm Selma when it makes landfall.

Stronger Tropical Storm Nate Speeds Toward Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Warning for New Orleans

A stronger Tropical Storm Nate sped toward the Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon and a Hurricane Warning was issued for the city of New Orleans.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 85.7°W which put it about 80 miles (125 km) east of Cozumel, Mexico and about 710 miles (1145 km) south-southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Nate was moving toward the north-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line in Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana and from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Lousiana and from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to Indian Pass, Florida.  A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Pinar del Rio province in Cuba.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Isle of Youth province in Cuba.

The inner core of Tropical Storm Nate tightened up on Friday afternoon.  A primary rainband wrapped about three quarters of the way around the center of circulation.  There was an opening to the northeast of the center.  The rainband could develop into an eyewall if it wraps completely around the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms formed outside the core of Tropical Storm Nate.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 125 miles (200 km) to the east of the center of circulation.  The winds were weaker in the western half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the core began to generate stronger upper level divergence which was pumping out mass and the surface pressure decreased on Friday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Nate will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Saturday.  Nate will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing southerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation but the vertical wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Storm Nate will become a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.  If an eyewall and an eye form, then Nate could have a period of rapid intensification.

The upper low over the western Gulf of Mexico and a ridge east of Florida are combining to steer Tropical Storm Nate toward the north-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue on Saturday.  An upper level trough approaching from the west will turn Nate toward the northeast when it nears the U.S.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nate will pass near the northeastern end of the Yucatan peninsula and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday night.  Nate will approach southeastern Louisiana and Central Gulf Coast on Saturday night.

Nate will be a hurricane when it nears the U.S.  It will be capable of producing serious regional wind damage and power outages.  Nate could cause a storm surge of 10-12 feet (3 to 4 meters) near where the center makes landfall.  Nate could also drop locally heavy rain and cause fresh water flooding when it moves inland in the southern U.S.

Tropical Storm Nate Makes Landfall in Nicaragua

Tropical Depression Sixteen strengthened into Tropical Storm Nate and Nate made landfall on the coast of northeastern Nicaragua on Thursday morning.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 84.0°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south-southwest of Puerto Lempira, Honduras.  Nate was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

The center of Tropical Depression Sixteen strengthened on Thursday morning before it made landfall in Nicaragua and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nate.  Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of circulation even though it is moving across northeastern Nicaragua.  The winds to tropical storm force are occurring in bands of showers and storms east of the center over the Caribbean Sea.  The winds are weaker in the portions of the circulation that are over land.

Tropical Storm Nate will not strengthen while the center is over land.  Nate will move into a favorable environment when it moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.  The Sea Surface Temperature will be near 30°C.  An upper level low will cause southerly winds to blow toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  It could take a few hours for the inner core of the circulation to reorganize after it moves back over water.  Once the inner core reorganizes, then a period of rapid intensification could occur.  Nate could become a hurricane over the northwest Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level low west of Florida will drift westward over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper low and an upper level ridge east of Florida will combine to steer Tropical Storm Nate toward the north-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nate will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.  Nate could be near the Yucatan peninsula on Friday night and it could move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  Nate could approach the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Tropical Storm Nate is dropping heavy rain on parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.  There is the potential for flooding in those areas.  Nate is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the Gulf Coast.  It will be capable of causing wind damage, a storm surge and locally heavy rain.

Tropical Depression 16 Organizes Near Nicaragua

Tropical Depression Sixteen organized near Nicaragua on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 82.7°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south-southeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua to Punta Castilla, Honduras.

The circulation of Tropical Depression Sixteen exhibited more organization on Wednesday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found a distinct surface center of circulation on Wednesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms began to form near the center on Wednesday evening.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms developed on the northern and southern sides of the circulation.  There were sustained winds in some of the bands that were near tropical storm force.

Tropical Depression Sixteen will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Some of the western part of the circulation is passing over Nicaragua and the increased friction is the only factor inhibiting intensification.  If the center of circulation stays over water, then the depression will likely strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday.  If the center of circulation moves over northeastern Nicaragua, then the depression will weaken.  The system is likely to strengthen when it moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

A ridge of high pressure is steering the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest and that motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  An upper low near the west coast of Florida is going to move west across the Gulf of Mexico.  When the upper low gets northwest of Tropical Depression Sixteen, it will start to pull the depression more toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen will move near or over northeastern Nicaragua on Thursday.  The depression could drop very heavy rain and cause floods in parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.  It is forecast to move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday and the depression could be near the northeastern Yucatan peninsula by Friday night.  The depression is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  There is more uncertainty about the future track of the system after that time.

Low Pressure Develops Over Southwest Caribbean Sea

An area of low pressure developed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday afternoon and the system was designated Invest 90L.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 90L was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation of Invest 90L was still organizing on Tuesday afternoon.  The area of low pressure appeared to have a distinct center of circulation.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming south and east of the center of circulation.  There were fewer showers and thunderstorms northwest of the center.  There was some upper level divergence that was pumping mass away to the south and west of the center.

Invest 90L will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature in the southwest Caribbean Sea is near 30°C and the warm water is fairly deep.  The energy content of the water in that area is high.  An upper level ridge centered over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing northeasterly which are blowing toward the northwestern side of Invest 90L.  Those winds are producing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent the formation of a tropical cyclone.  Invest 90L is likely to become a tropical depression or storm during the next 24 to 48 hours.  If the center remains east of Nicaragua, rapid intensification could occur after the circulation consolidates around the low level center.

Invest 90L is moving slowly toward the west-northwest as it moves near the southern side of a mid-level ridge.  That ridge could steer Invest 90L close to the coast of Nicaragua during the next several days.  The mid-level ridge is forecast to move east to near the Bahamas during the next 24 to 48 hours.  After that time, southerly winds are forecast to steer Invest 90L toward the north.  On its anticipated track the center of Invest 90L could move very close to Nicaragua during the next day or two.  It could bring locally heavy rain to Nicaragua and Honduras.  Invest 90L could move into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days.  The intensity of Invest 90L when it reaches the Gulf will depend on how much it interacts with Nicaragua and the Yucatan peninsula.  If the center stays over water, then it could be a hurricane when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.  If the center spends more time over land, then the system will be weaker when it reaches the Gulf.  Some models are forecasting that a hurricane could make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend.

Remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey About to Move Over Gulf of Mexico

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Harvey are about to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 89.8°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Merida, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

A broad area of low pressure that contained the remnants of former Tropical Storm Harvey moved across the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday.  Thin bands of showers were rotating around the broad area of low pressure over land.  Several broken bands of thunderstorms were evident on the northern and northeastern periphery of the low pressure system.  There were several smaller centers rotating around inside the larger area of low pressure, but the circulation appeared to consolidating around a center near Merida.  A few thunderstorms were forming near that center as it neared the coast.

The National Hurricane Center indicated that there is a nearly 100% chance that the low pressure system will strengthen into a tropical cyclone again once it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.  The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the southern Gulf of Mexico is near 31°C.  An upper level low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico was producing some vertical shear over the top of the surface low.  The upper low is forecast to move north and weaken.  An upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper ridge will produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  However, those winds are expected to be weak enough to allow for intensification.  The southerly winds could actually enhance upper level divergence to the north of the low pressure system in a day or two.

Given the large size of the low pressure system and the lack of a well defined center of circulation, the system will likely start to intensify slowly.  The rate of intensification will increase once a well defined center forms.  A period of very rapid intensification could occur later this week because of very warm SSTs and little vertical wind shear.  The area of low pressure could become a tropical depression within 12 hours.  It is likely to be a tropical storm on Wednesday.  The system has a good chance of becoming a hurricane over the western Gulf of Mexico.  If the system moves slowly and rapid intensification occurs, it could become a major hurricane.

A ridge in the middle troposphere near Florida is steering the low pressure system toward the northwest and a general northwesterly motion is forecast for the next several days.  There will be more uncertainty about the future track until a well developed center of circulation forms.  However, it seems likely that this system will move toward the coast of Texas.  The system could slow and/or turn more toward the north when it nears the coast.  It has the potential to become a significant hurricane by the time it reaches the coast.  It could bring strong gusty winds, which could cause a significant storm surge at the coast.  If the system moves slowly, it could also drop very heavy rain, which would create flash floods.

Tropical Storm Franklin Moves Over Bay of Campeche and Strengthens

Tropical Storm Franklin moved off the Yucatan peninsula over the Bay of Campeche and began to strengthen on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 91.3°W which put it about 325 miles (525 km) east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan, Mexico.  A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tuxpan to Rio Panuco.  A Tropical Storm Waring was in effect for the portion of the coast from Celestun to Puerto de Veracruz and from Tuxpan to Rio Panuco.

Although Tropical Storm Franklin weakened as it moved across the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, its circulation maintained its structural integrity.  In fact, a tighter inner core developed at the center of the circulation while the tropical storm moved over land.  New thunderstorms began to form near the center of Tropical Storm Franklin as soon as the center moved back over water.  A primary band of thunderstorms began to wrap tightly around the eastern and northern sides of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms began to form over the Bay of Campeche.  Thunderstorms in the core were generating upper level divergence which is pumping away mass.

Tropical Storm Franklin will move over an environment very favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Franklin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  An upper level trough over the Bahamas may enhance the upper divergence by creating an outflow channel to the east of Franklin.  Tropical Storm Franklin will intensify on Wednesday and there could be a period of rapid intensification.  Franklin is likely to become a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Franklin is being steered to the west by a subtropical high to its northeast.  A general westerly motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Franklin will approach the coast of Mexico north of Veracruz on Wednesday night.  Franklin will bring gusty winds, heavy rain and a storm surge at the coast.  When Franklin moves inland the mountains will enhance the rising motion and very heavy rain could fall.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Storm Franklin Makes Landfall on Yucatan

The center of Tropical Storm Franklin made landfall on the southeast coast of the Yucatan peninsula on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 87.3°W which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-northeast of Chetumal, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal to Sabancuy, Mexico and from Belize City northward to the Belize/Mexico border.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz, Mexico.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Franklin became better organized on Monday, but thunderstorms were unable to consolidate around the core of the circulation.  A ring of showers and weaker thunderstorms surrounds the center of circulation.  A band of stronger thunderstorms curls around the eastern side of the circulation.  The are weaker bands of showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  The thunderstorms in the eastern side of Franklin were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Franklin will weaken as it moves over the Yucatan peninsula.  Franklin will spend approximately 18 hours over land and it will be a weaker tropical storm or tropical depression by the time it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the southern Gulf of Mexico is near 30°C.  The upper level winds should be weak and there is likely to be little vertical wind shear when Franklin moves over the southern Gulf.  Franklin is likely to intensify when it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

A subtropical high pressure system is steering Tropical Storm Franklin toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track Franklin will move across the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday.  Franklin will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.  Floods could occur in some locations.

Tropical Storm Franklin Develops Over Northwest Caribbean Sea

A center of circulation developed in a system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven and the National Hurricane Center named the system Tropical Storm Franklin on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 83.0°W which put it about 380 miles (610 km) east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico.  Franklin was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Chetumal to Campeche, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City, Belize northward to the Belize/Mexico border.

Visible satellite images just before sunset suggested that a center of circulation had formed in the tropical wave previously designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven and the National Hurricane Center named it Tropical Storm Franklin.  The circulation of Tropical Storm Franklin is still not well organized.  The apparent center is located near the western edge of an area of thunderstorms.  Most of the thunderstorms are still forming east of the system, which indicates that vertical wind shear is probably still affecting the circulation.  The thunderstorms are producing some upper level divergence which is pumping mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The environment ahead of Tropical Storm Franklin will become more favorable for intensification.  Franklin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough west of Franklin is producing westerly winds which are causing the vertical wind shear.  The trough is expected to weaken on Monday and when that happens the shear will diminish.  Warm water and less shear should allow Tropical Storm Franklin to strengthen before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula.  Franklin will weaken when it moves over land, but it is likely to re-intensify when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Franklin is being steered toward the west-northwest by a subtropical high centered over the Atlantic Ocean.  A general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Franklin could approach the Yucatan peninsula in about 24 hours.  Franklin will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to that area.  The heavy rain could cause flooding in some locations.