Tag Archives: Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia on Friday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 86.0°E which put it about 1160 miles (1870 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Anggrek was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Anggrek’ circulation. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Anggrek’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.0.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Anggrek to weaken temporarily.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Anggrek toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will remain far to the southeast of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Candice moved farther to the southeast of Mauritius. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Candice was located at latitude 27.1°S and longitude 62.3°E which put it about 565 miles (910 km) southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Candice was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (170 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 2 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the South Indian Ocean on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 87.9°E which put it about 1225 miles (1975 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Anggrek was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek intensified more rapidly on Thursday. A circular eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) formed at the center of Anggrek’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease more rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was more symmetrical on Thursday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Anggrek’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.5.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Anggrek could intensify rapidly at times.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Anggrek toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will remain far to the southeast of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Candice moved farther away from Mauritius. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Candice was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 60.6°E which put it about 315 miles (505 km) southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Candice was moving toward the southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (170 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Candice Forms Near Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Candice formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean near Mauritius on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Candice was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) north of Port Louis, Mauritius. Candice was almost stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean near Mauritius strengthened on Wednesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Candice. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Candice’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Candice. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Candice will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Candice will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean east of Madagascar. The upper level winds are weak under the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Candice is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Candice will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will start to steer Candice toward the south during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Candice will move over Mauritius. Candice could bring a prolonged period of gusty winds and heavy rain to Mauritius. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 91.0°E which put it about 1350 miles (2180 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Anggrek was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily Forms Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily formed over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Tuesday night. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 151.7°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) east-northeast of Townsville, Australia. Kirrily was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Innisfail to Sarina. The Warning included Townsville, Mackay and Bowen.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea east of Queensland strengthened during Tuesday night and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Kirrily’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Bands in the eastern side of Kirrily’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Kirrily generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kirrily will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over Australia. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kirrily’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent strengthening. Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Coral Sea during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Kirrily toward the west-southwest. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will approach the coast of Queensland near Townsville in 24 hours. Kirrily will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Queensland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 14.2°S and longitude 91.0°E which put it about 1350 miles (2180 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Anggrek was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek Turns Southwest

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek turned southwest over the South Indian Ocean west of Cocos Island on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 91.5°E which put it about 370 miles (600 km) west of Cocos Islands. Anggrek was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek strengthened after it started to move toward the southwest on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western side of the center of Anggrek’s circulation. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Anggrek generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Anggrek will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system west of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Anggrek toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Anggrek will move far to the southeast of Diego Garcia later this week.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed east of Rodrigues. At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 57.9°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) east of Rodrigues. The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Moves Southwest of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien moved southwest of Diego Garcia on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 10.2°S and longitude 69.6°E which put it about 285 miles (460 km) southwest of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien was maintaining its intensity on Friday morning as it moved southwest of Diego Garcia, but the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Fabien’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Fabien consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Drier air had wrapped around the western and northern sides of Fabien’s circulation and the drier air was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Storms in the southeastern quadrant of Fabien still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Fabien.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment that will become a little more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move into a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will decrease. The drier air in the western and northern parts of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will continue to inhibit intensification. Even with the effects of the drier air, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could intensify during the next 24 hours when the wind shear decreases.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien slowly toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move farther away from Diego Garcia. Fabien is likely to move toward the south during the weekend when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Weakens South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.1°S and longitude 71.7°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm as it passed south of Diego Garcia during Wednesday night. The clockwise circulation around Fabien continued to pull drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Fabien’s circulation and in bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. The thunderstorms near the center of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien slowly toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Moves Southeast of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Fabien moved southeast of Diego Garcia on Wednesday morning. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 9.0°S and longitude 73.6°E which put it about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien began to show signs of weakening on Wednesday morning. The clockwise circulation around Fabien was pulling drier air into the western side of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Fabien were weakening. Some bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The former circular eye was no longer visible on satellite images. There were still bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Fabien’s circulation. Thunderstorms on the eastern side of Fabien still were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Fabien’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fabien was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.5. Tropical Cyclone Fabien was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, southerly winds in the western side of Fabien’s circulation will continue to pull drier air into the tropical cyclone. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear. The drier air and vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Fabien to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien will pass south of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fabien more toward the west later this week. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southwest of Diego Garcia on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fabien strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean east of Diego Garcia on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 7.6°S and longitude 74.8°E which put it about 180 miles (290 km) east of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of Diego Garcia on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was present at the center of Fabien’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fabien’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fabien was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0. Tropical Cyclone Fabien was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western side of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien could continue to intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move southeast of Diego Garcia during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Fabien more toward the west later this week. The center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien could be south of Diego Garcia in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Fabien rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien was located at latitude 5.4°S and longitude 7°9.0E which put it about 490 miles (790 km) east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Fabien was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

After it strengthened to a tropical cyclone on Sunday morning, Tropical Cyclone Fabien rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Sunday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fabien’s circulation. A small circular eye was forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fabien. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Fabien’s circulation. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fabien was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Fabien. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fabien will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fabien’s circulation. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Fabien will intensity during the next 36 hours. Fabien is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fabien will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southeast Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fabien toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fabien could pass near Diego Garcia in 48 hours. Fabien is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it passes near Diego Garcia.