Tag Archives: EP03

Tropical Depression Celia Passes South of Guatemala

Tropical Depression Celia passed south of Guatemala on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 92.4°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) southwest of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala. Celia was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Depression Celia weakened during the weekend. A few thunderstorms formed near the center of Celia, but most of the circulation consisted of bands of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over southeastern Mexico produced easterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Depression Celia. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms that started to develop in Tropical Depression Celia.

Tropical Depression Celia will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over southeastern Mexico will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will prevent intensification during the next day or so. Tropical Depression Celia will move into an area where the upper level winds are weaker early next week. That will cause the vertical wind shear to diminish. Tropical Depression Celia could strengthen when the shear diminishes.

Tropical Depression Celia will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico during the next 48 hours. The high pressure system will to steer Celia toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Celia will move parallel to the south coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Blas weakened south of Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 113.0°W which put it about 335 miles (540 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Depression Three-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Celia

Former Tropical Depression Three-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Celia over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 89.3°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) south of San Salvador, El Salvador. Celia was moving toward the north-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Three-E strengthened on Friday morning and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Celia. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Celia. Bands in the eastern half of Celia’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Celia was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Celia.

Tropical Storm Celia will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Celia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Celia could strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Celia will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 18 hours. A broad area of low pressure over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Celia slowly toward the north during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Celia will move slowly closer to El Salvador. Rainbands in the northern fringes of Celia could drop heavy rain over parts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. A high pressure system will strengthen over Mexico during the weekend. The high pressure system is likely to steer Tropical Storm Celia toward the west.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Blas strengthened a little as it moved away from the southwest coast of Mexico. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 109.0°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

Tropical Depression Three-E Forms South of El Salvador

Tropical Depression Three-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 89.9°W which put it about 205 miles (330 km) south-southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador. The tropical depression was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of El Salvador strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three-E. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Tropical Depression Three-E. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of the depression. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Three-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Three-E is very likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Three-E will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. A broad area of low pressure over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Three-E will move slowly closer to El Salvador. Rainbands in the northern fringes of the tropical depression could drop heavy rain over parts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Blas churned southwest of Mexico. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 105.6°W which put it about 210 miles (340 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Storm Carlos Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Carlos formed southwest of Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 124.5°W which put it about 1225 miles (1970 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Carlos was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system southwest of Baja California exhibited more organization on satellite imagery on Saturday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlos. More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Carlos. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Carlos. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Carlos. The winds were blowing at less than tropical storm force in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Carlos will move through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Carlos will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Carlos. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they already contributed to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Carlos will likely strengthen on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Carlos will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Carlos toward the west during the next 24 hours. The steering currents could weaken during the early part of next week and Tropical Storm Carlos could meander slowly well to the southwest of Baja California.

Tropical Storm Boris Develops East-Southeast of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Boris developed east-southeast of Hawaii on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Boris was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 137.1°W which put it about 1330 miles (2145 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Boris was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

More thunderstorms developed Thursday afternoon near a low pressure system southeast of Hawaii that was previously designated as Tropical Depression Three-E.  A scatterometer on board a satellite detected winds to 40 m.p.h. (65 km) near the center of the low pressure system and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Boris.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in that band of storms.  A few other short bands of showers and thunderstorms developed in the eastern half of Boris.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 50 miles from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Boris will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Boris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26.5°C.  A large upper level trough between Hawaii and the West Coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will limit intensification.  In addition, there is drier air north and west of Tropical Storm Boris.  Boris could intensify during the next 12 hours in spite of the moderate vertical wind shear and drier air.  However, Tropical Storm Boris will move into a region where the upper level winds are stronger during the weekend.  When the vertical wind shear increases, Boris will weaken.

Tropical Storm Boris will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The will steer Boris toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  When Tropical Storm Boris weakens during the weekend, it will be steered by winds closer to the surface.  Those winds will steer Boris toward the west.  On its anticipated track the weakening Tropical Storm Boris will pass southeast of Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Cosme Forms Southwest of Baja California

Tropical Storm Cosme formed southwest of Baja California on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 115.7°W which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Cosme was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) determined on Saturday that a distinct center of circulation had developed in a broader area of lower pressure and NHC designated the system as Tropical Storm Cosme.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Storm Cosme was asymmetrical.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of the circulation.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough near Baja California was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Cosme will move through an environment that is not favorable for significant intensification.  Cosme will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C.  The upper level trough will continue to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Cosme.  The upper level winds are likely to weaken somewhat, but they will continue to cause vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Cosme could intensify a little during the next 24 hours, but it is not likely to strengthen significantly.

Tropical Storm Cosme will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Cosme toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Cosme is forecast to remain well to the west of Baja California.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Barbara continued to weaken as it moved toward Hawaii.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 139.2°W which put it about 1040 miles (1670 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Barbara was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

TD 4E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Carlotta

Tropical Depression Four-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Carlotta south of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 99.4°W which put it about 60 miles (95 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Carlotta was moving toward the northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico.

A single, distinct center of circulation developed in Tropical Depression Four-E on Friday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Carlotta.  It is possible that the mountains in Mexico deflected the circulation in the lower levels and contributed to the improved organization of Tropical Storm Carlotta.  Stronger thunderstorms were forming near the center of circulation.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms developed east and south of the core of Carlotta.  Other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  Storms in the core were generating upper level divergence and Carlotta looked like a tropical storm on satellite images.

Tropical Storm Carlotta will remain in an environment favorable for intensification while the center is over water.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water south of Mexico is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak in that area and there is little vertical wind shear.  Carlotta could strengthen further during the next 12 hours.  When the center nears the coast of Mexico, the circulation could begin to pull in drier air from over the land.  If that happens, then Tropical Storm Carlotta could start to weaken even before the center officially makes landfall.

The steering winds are weak around Tropical Storm Carlotta.  A trough in the lower levels is moving across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it appears to be pulling Carlotta slowly toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta will reach the coast of Mexico in 12 to 18 hours.  Tropical Storm Carlotta is expected to make landfall east of Acapulco.  Carlotta will produce some gusty winds but the greater risks are heavy rain and flash floods.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Bud is moving over the Gulf of California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Bud was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 110.0°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Los Mochis, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.  Bud could drop heavy rain and cause flash floods in the states of Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuahua.

Tropical Storm Bud Brings Wind & Rain to Baja California, New Depression Forms South of Acapulco

Tropical Storm Bud brought wind and rain to the southern part of Baja Calfornia on Tuesday while a new tropical depression formed south of Acapulco, Mexico.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.  The government of Mexico issued new Tropical Storm Watches for the portions of the coast from La Paz to San Evaristo and from Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Rainbands on the northern side of the circulation of Tropical Storm Bud were producing winds to tropical storm force over the southern end of Baja California.  New thunderstorms began to form when a band north and east of the center of circulation moved over the southern part of the Gulf of California.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the Gulf is near 27°C which is warmer than the water of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California.  The additional energy from the ocean may have contributed to the formation of the new storms.

A trough in the upper levels is forecast to steer Tropical Storm Bud toward the north-northeast during the next several days,  Bud could maintain its intensity for another 24 hours if the center of circulation passes southeast of Baja California.  If the center passes over Baja, the mountains would disrupt the circulation in the lower levels and Tropical Storm Bud would weaken.  In either case Tropical Storm Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the southern end of Baja California for another day or so.  Bud will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico later on Friday.  Heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some locations.

Tropical Depression Four-E formed south of Acapulco on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 100.1°W which put it about 100 miles (155 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.  Because of the proximity to the coast the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado.

A center of circulation developed in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Mexico and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Four-E.  The circulation was still organizing.  Several fragmented bands of showers and thunderstorms formed in the outer portions of the circulation.  The center of circulation was broad and there were several smaller cyclonic rotations swirling around inside the broader center.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The proximity to the coast will be the primary factor inhibiting intensification.  The circulation could pull in drier air from Mexico.  Tropical Depression Four-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Friday.

Tropical Depression Four-E will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge, but the steering currents are likely to be weak.  The depression is expected to move slowly toward the north-northwest during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track the center of the depression could move near the coast during the weekend.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  The rain could cause flash floods.

Hurricane Bud Weakens, Watch Issued for Baja California

Hurricane Bud weakened significantly on Tuesday, but it prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 108.6°W which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (150 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico including Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Bud weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday.  The center of Hurricane Bud was over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 27°C, but much of the northern half of the circulation was over cooler water.  The slow movement of Bud may have also allowed the winds to mix cooler water to the surface.  Thunderstorms were not as tall and the bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring mainly south and east of the center of Hurricane Bud.

Hurricane Bud is forecast to spin down slowly during the next several days.  Cooler water at the surface of the ocean is not likely to supply sufficient energy to maintain the circulation.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear, but the lack of shear will be less important than effects of the cooler water.  The lack of stronger thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation will limit the downdrafts that could transport stronger winds to the surface.  Hurricane Bud could weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday if new thunderstorms do not form in the core of the circulation.

A ridge in the middle troposphere over the southwestern U.S. almost blocked the forward motion of Hurricane Bud on Tuesday.  Bud moved slowly toward the north-northwest.  A slow motion toward the north-northwest is forecast to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  After that time a trough over the Pacific Ocean is forecast to push the ridge eastward.  When the trough approaches, stronger southerly winds will steer Bud northward more quickly.  On its anticipated track Bud is forecast to approach the southern tip of Baja California in 36 to 48 hours.

Hurricane Bud is likely to be a tropical storm when it nears Baja California.  Bud will bring gusty winds, but the bigger risk will be locally heavy rain.  Heavy rain falling on steep terrain could cause flash floods.  Bud or its remnants could also bring rain to parts of the southwestern U.S.

Bud Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Bud rapidly intensified Monday into a major hurricane southwest of Mexico.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Bud was located at latitude 16.7°N and longitude 106.8°W which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Bud was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch remained in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

The circulation around Hurricane Bud is very well organized.  A circular eye exists at the center of circulation.  The eye is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  A number of bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation.  The overall circulation is quite symmetrical and there are rainbands in all quadrants of Hurricane Bud.  Storms near the core are generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.

Hurricane Bud exhibits all of the characteristics of a well organized hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bud is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.5.

Hurricane Bud will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane for another 12 to 24 hours.  Bud is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, but the Sea Surface Temperature of the water ahead of the hurricane is cooler.  Hurricane Bud will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Bud could intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours, because of little shear.  However, Bud is likely to weaken after that, when it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Bud is moving near the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering the hurricane toward the northwest.  That general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  Bud is forecast to turn more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the core of Hurricane Bud is expected to remain west of the west coast of Mexico.  Bud could approach the southern part of Baja California in about four days.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Aletta weakened to a tropical depression.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Aletta was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 117.8°W which put it about 665 miles (1070 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Aletta was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.