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Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Continues Toward Indus River Delta

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy continued to move slowly toward the Indus River Valley on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 66.3°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy remained in equilibrium with the surrounding environment on Tuesday and the intensity did not change much. A microwave satellite image showed a circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) at the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Biparjoy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Biparjoy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy increased on Tuesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.0. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the northern Arabian Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will start to blow toward the top of Biparjoy’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear will increase. In addition, more drier air will be pulled from South Asia into the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of Biparjoy. More drier air and more vertical wind shear are likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north during the next 12 hours. The upper level ridge over the northern Arabian Sea will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy toward the northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in 36 hours. Biparjoy is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the Indus River Delta. The India Meteorological Department issued a Cyclone Warning for the Saurashtra and Kutch Coasts. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Pakistan and western India. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Biparjoy could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.4 meters along the coast).

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Churns Toward Indus River Delta

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy continued to churn toward the Indus River Delta on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 67.1°E which put it about 285 miles (455 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy appeared to be in equilibrium with the surrounding environment on Monday and the intensity did not change much. A microwave satellite image showed a small circular eye at the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Bands in the northern half of Biparjoy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Biparjoy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind around Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy became more symmetrical on Monday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in all directions from the center of Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.7.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, drier air will be pulled from South Asia into the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of Biparjoy. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could remain in equilibrium with its environment during the next 24 hours if the effects of warm Sea Surface Temperatures and little vertical wind shear balance the effect of the drier air in the northern part of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Maintains Northward Track

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy maintained its track to the north over the Arabian Sea on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 67.6°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy appeared to be cycling up and down every 24 hours. In addition, there was a big difference in the appearance of Biparjoy between conventional infrared and microwave satellite images. A recent microwave image showed a small elliptical eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. An eye was not present on a conventional infrared satellite image. The difference in appearance was making it challenging to estimate the intensity of Biparjoy based on data remotely sensed by satellites.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was still well organized. A thin ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye on the microwave satellite image. Bands of strong thunderstorms persisted in the southern half of Biparjoy’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Biparyjoy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Biparjoy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, more drier air will be pulled from South Asia into the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of Biparjoy. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy has been moving slowly and the wind could mix cooler water to the surface of the Arabian Sea. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will weaken during the next 24 hours if the drier air in the northern part of the circulation and the mixing of cooler water to the surface inhibit the formation of thunderstorms near the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy Continues to Move Slowly North

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy continued to move slowly toward the north over the Arabian Sea on Saturday night. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 67.5°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy appeared to be pulling drier air from India into the northern part of the circulation. Bands in the northern half of Biparjoy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Storms near the center of Biparyjoy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southeastern quadrant of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Biparjoy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, drier air in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of the circulation. In addition, Biparjoy has been moving slowly and the wind could mix cooler water to the surface of the Arabian Sea. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could weaken during the next 24 hours if the drier air in the northern part of the circulation and the mixing of cooler water to the surface inhibit the formation of thunderstorms near the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over India during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in four days.

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous Moves over Arabian Sea

The circulation of former Tropical Cyclone Mandous moved over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 12.6°N and longitude 71.8°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) west of Mangaluru, India. Mandous was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

After making landfall on the coast of southeastern India between Puducherry and Chennai on Friday, Tropical Cyclone Mandous moved westward across southern India during the weekend. The circulation of former Tropical Cyclone Mandous emerged over the Arabian Sea west of India on Tuesday. The circulation around Mandous was still well organized. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and west of the former tropical cyclone.

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over southern Asia and the Arabian Sea. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those wind will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous could strengthen during the next 24 hours. Northeasterly winds in the lower levels are transporting drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. Mandous is likely to weaken when it reaches the mass of drier air later this week.

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, former Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move farther away from the coast of southwest India.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Makes Landfall in Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Mandous made landfall in southern India on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Chennai, India. Mandous was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous made landfall on the coast of southern India between Chennai and Puducherry on Friday. Mandous moved into a mass of drier air and weakened prior to landfall. Tropical Cyclone Mandous was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Mandous’ circulation. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Mandous.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous move farther inland over southern India during the next 24 hours. Mandous will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone Mandous will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Puducherry, northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Strengthens over Southwest Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened over the southwestern Bay of Bengal on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 81.9°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Chennai, India. Mandous was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened on Thursday. Even though Mandous was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms continued to be asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Mandous’ circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Mandous consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of Mandous generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will inhibit intensification. The western side Tropical Cyclone Mandous will interact with a mass of drier air over India, when Mandous gets closer to the coast of India. A combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to cause Mandous to begin to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous will be near the coast of southern India near Chennai in 24 hours. Mandous will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puducherry, northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Tropical Cyclone Mandous will also drop heavy rain over northern Sri Lanka. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Forms over Southwest Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Mandous formed over the southwestern Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Wednesday afternoon. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 83.8°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Chennai, India. Mandous was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mandous. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Mandous was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Mandous’ circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Mandous consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of Mandous generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will inhibit intensification. The vertical wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification during the next 24 hours and Tropical Cyclone Mandous could strengthen during that time period.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous could be near the coast of southern India near Chennai in 48 hours. Mandous could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puducherry, northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang Brings Wind and Rain to Bangladesh

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang brought wind and rain to Bangladesh on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sitrang was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 91.2°E which put it about 45 miles (75 km) northeast of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Sitrang was moving toward the north at 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Sitrang moved quickly across the northern Bay of Bengal and over Bangladesh on Monday. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the northern side of Sitrang’s circulation. Bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Sitrang consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Sitrang.

A high pressure system over Southeast Asia will steer Tropical Cyclone Sitrang quickly toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Sitrang will move across Bangladesh and over northeastern India. Tropical Cyclone Sitrang will drop locally heavy rain over Bangladesh and northeastern India. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Sitrang will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland.

Tropical Cyclone 04B Makes Landfall South-southwest of Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone 04B made landfall on the coast of India south-southwest of Kolkata on Friday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 87.7°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) south-southwest of Kolkata India. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 04B strengthened during the hours prior to landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) when Tropical Cyclone 04B made landfall on the coast of India south-southwest of Kolkata. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around a broad center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 04B will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 04B will move farther inland over central India during the weekend. The tropical cyclone will gradually weaken when it moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone 04B will drop heavy rain over parts of central India. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.