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Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Develops East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso developed east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 53.7°E which put it about 245 miles (390 km) east of Sambava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar strengthened on Wednesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Cheneso’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Bands in the eastern half of Cheneso consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds, although there were also some thunderstorms in that side of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near than 29˚C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will strengthen during the next 18 hours and it could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso could reach landfall on the northern coast of Madagascar near Sambava in 18h ours. Cheneso will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai over Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsiria was located over southwest Madagascar on Sunday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 43.9°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Toliara, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was just northeast of Toliara, Madagascar on Sunday morning. Batsirai was still dropping locally heavy rain over parts of southwestern Madagascar. The heaviest rain was falling on the western sides of mountains where the wind was blowing the air up the slopes. The threat for flash floods continued. The inner core of Batsirai’s circulation was disrupted when it moved over the mountains on Madagascar. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. The strongest wind were occurring in the parts of Batsirai’s circulation that were over water. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Batsirai.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the southwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move over the Mozambique Channel in a few hours. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southwestern Madagascar on Sunday. Even though Batsirai has weakened, the potential for flash floods still exists. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move toward the south on Monday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system. Batsirai could strengthen after the center moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to Madagascar on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 21.5°S and longitude 46.3°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Beroroha, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar near Manajary on Saturday. Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved toward the west-southwest after it made landfall. The center of Batsirai passed just to the north of Fianarantsoa. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai weakened steadily after it moved over Madagascar, but it was still the equivalent of a strong tropical storm on Saturday night. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move across southwestern Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central and southern Madagascar on Sunday. Even though Batsirai has weakened, the potential for flash floods remains high. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could move over the Mozambique Channel north of Toliara in 18 hours. Batsirai could strengthen after the center moves back over water.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai’s Wind and Rain Reach Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai’s wind and rain reached Madagascar on Saturday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 21.0°S and longitude 48.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northeast of Mananjary, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Bands in the western side of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to east central Madagascar on Saturday morning. The center of Batsirai was just east of the coast of Madagascar and the strongest winds were still offshore. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane. An eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Batsirai. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Batsirai’s circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was large. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 22.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.0. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar between Nosy Varika and Mananjary during the next 3 hours. Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Widespread losses of electricity are possible. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast between Nosy Varika and Manajary. The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could pass close to Fianarantsoa. Batsirai will weaken when it moves inland, but it will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Nears Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 50.8°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Mahanoro, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was the equivalent of a major hurricane as it neared the east coast of Madagascar on Friday night. A circular eye was at the center of Batsirai’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms in the northern part of the eyewall weakened in recent hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Batsirai was a large tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (360 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.4.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The northwestern part of the circulation around Batsirai could pull drier air sinking down the eastern slopes of mountains in Madagascar into the tropical cyclone. Drier air could cause Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to weaken a little before it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika in 12 hours. Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast between Mahanoro and Nosy Varika. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will weaken when it moves inland, but it will continue to drop locally heavy rain over central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Strengthens East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai strengthened again east of Madagascar on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 52.2°E which put it about 210 miles (345 km) east-southeast of Toamasina, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai intensified again on Friday morning after it completed another eyewall replacement cycle. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Batsirai. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was a large tropical cyclone after several eyewall replacement cycles. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could intensity during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle starts.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will hit the east coast of Madagascar near Mahanoro in 24 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Moves Toward Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved toward Madagascar on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 53.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to be nearing the completion of another eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday night. The inner eyewall consisted mostly of a small ring of showers and lower clouds. A much larger eye was evident on satellite images. The outer eyewall consisted of a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the larger eye. Storms near the core of Batsirai’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The completion of another eyewall replacement cycle caused the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to increase in size again. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 225 miles (365 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could weaken during the next few hours while it fully completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 36 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring strong winds and heavy rain to central Madagascar. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods especially in regions of steep mountains. Batsirai could also cause a serious storm surge along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Drops Heavy Rain on La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped heavy rain on La Reunion on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.2°S and longitude 54.6°E which put it about 95 miles (150 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped very heavy rain over La Reunion on Thursday morning. A weather station at La Nouvelle reported 516.7 mm (20.34 inches) of rain. Batsirai moved slowly during the past 18 hours. The slow movement caused persistent easterly winds to blow up the eastern sides of mountains. The persistent rising motion produced very heavy rain on the eastern slopes. The very heavy rain was likely causing widespread flash floods. The heavy rain will continue until Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moves farther away from La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to have concentric eyewalls based on radar images from La Reunion and on satellite images. A small inner eye and eyewall was present inside a larger outer eyewall. The inner eyewall was weakening, but it was still visible on radar and satellite images. Eventually, the inner eyewall will dissipate and the strongest winds will occur in the outer eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Batsirai’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai contracted slightly. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.5.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to weaken during the next few hours while it completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion during the next 12 hours. The heaviest rain will continue to fall on the eastern slopes of mountains where the winds were blowing up the slopes. Continued heavy rain could cause devastating flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions on La Reunion will improve gradually when Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 48 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Passes North of La Reunion

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of La Reunion on Wednesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 55.4°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 942 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to be in the midst of another eyewall replacement cycle on Wednesday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall. A second, larger eyewall surrounded the inner eyewall and the inner eyewall started to weaken. The outer eyewall contained a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai continued to have a large circulation. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.6.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is likely to weaken during the next few hours while it completes the eyewall replacement cycle. Batsirai could strengthen again after it completes the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to La Reunion during the next 12 hours. Rainbands in the southeastern part of Batsirai’s circulation were also dropping heavy rain over Mauritius. The heaviest rain was falling on the eastern slopes of mountains where the winds were blowing up the slopes. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Weather conditions on La Reunion and Mauritius will improve gradually when Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could approach the east coast of Madagascar south of Toamasina in 48 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai Brings Wind and Rain to Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought wind and rain to Mauritius on Wednesday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 56.3°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius. Batsirai was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 931 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai passed north of Mauritius on Wednesday, but it still brought wind and rain. A weather station at Champ de Mars, near Port Louis, reported a wind speed of 94 m.p.h. (151 km/h). Another weather station near Port Louis at Bell Village reported 6.01 inches (152.7 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai appeared to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. The tiny inner eyewall dissipated and a new larger eye was apparent on satellite images. Batsirai may have been near Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before the inner eyewall dissipated. The new eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Batsirai increased during the eyewall replacement cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Batsirai. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 53.0.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai weakened after the eyewall replacement cycle, but it could strengthen again since the inner core is still intact. There is a chance that Batsirai could reach Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move north of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the west-southwest during the next several days. Weather conditions on Mauritius will improve gradually as Batsirai moves farther away. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will pass north of La Reunion during the next 24 hours. Although the strongest winds in Batsirai will pass north of La Reunion, it could experience strong winds and locally heavy rain. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Batsirai could reach the east coast of Madagascar within 60 hours. Batsirai is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches Madagascar.