For the first time this hurricane season the Global System Forecast (GFS) Model is suggesting a classical development of a tropical cyclone east of the Lesser Antilles might occur and that resulting storm could effect the U.S.\u00a0 A tropical wave is about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and there may be a low pressure center near latitude 10\u00b0N and longitude 50\u00b0W.\u00a0 Thunderstorm activity has increased with this system today as it moves westward.<\/p>\n
The 0600 UTC run of the GFS model developed a tropical cyclone from this wave and moved it through the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico near Texas by a week from Friday.\u00a0 The following (1200 UTC) run also developed a tropical cyclone and moved it into the northern Gulf of Mexico by a week from Wednesday evening.\u00a0 At this time it is prudent to ask if these runs represent model false alarms or a possible depiction of future reality.\u00a0 If the development of a tropical cyclone does occur, then it may be that a hurricane could approach the coast of the U.S. during the second half of next week.\u00a0 The first indication that the GFS forecast might verify would be the development of tropical depression east of the Lesser Antilles.<\/p>\n
This far out in advance the uncertainty of a track or intensity forecast is very high.\u00a0 If there was a cone of uncertainty for the track, it might extend from Cancun to Cape Hatteras.\u00a0 If a center of low pressure organizes, then the model guidance will improve and the uncertainty will decrease.<\/p>\n
People along the coast of the U.S. should be aware of this system and maintain a cautious vigilance until we see if it does develop,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
For the first time this hurricane season the Global System Forecast (GFS) Model is suggesting a classical development of a tropical cyclone east of the Lesser Antilles might occur and that resulting storm could effect the U.S.\u00a0 A tropical wave is about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and there may be a low […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,2],"tags":[19,18],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24\/revisions\/25"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}