A tropical disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan peninsula is moving northwest and it could develop into a tropical cyclone when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.\u00a0 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated the disturbance as Invest 93L and NHC is putting the probability of development into a tropical cyclone during the next two days at 80%.\u00a0 At 8:00 p.m. EDT the center of Invest 93L was located at latitude 18.5\u00b0N and longitude 87.5\u00b0W which put it about 170 miles (270 km) south of Cancun, Mexico.\u00a0 Invest 93L was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km\/h).\u00a0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km\/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km\/h).\u00a0 The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.<\/p>\n
Invest 93L consists of a broad area of low pressure at the surface.\u00a0 Several bands of thunderstorms are occurring in the eastern and northern parts of the circulation.\u00a0 There is no well defined center of circulation and there are fewer thunderstorms in the inner portion of the circulation.\u00a0 The strongest winds are occurring in the bands of thunderstorms north and east of the center.\u00a0 There is some upper level divergence to the east of Invest 93L.<\/p>\n
The environment around Invest 93L is not totally favorable for development.\u00a0 The Sea Surface Temperature in northwest Caribbean Sea is near 30\u00b0C, which means there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.\u00a0 However, an upper level low near Texas and an upper level ridge east of Invest 93L are combining to generate strong southwesterly winds that are blowing over the top of the disturbance.\u00a0 Those winds are creating significant vertical wind shear which is inhibiting the development of Invest 93L.\u00a0 The upper level ridge is enhancing the upper level divergence to the east of the disturbance which allowed the pressure to fall several millibars on Saturday.\u00a0 The upper winds are lighter near the axis of the ridge which is why the stronger bands of thunderstorms are persisting in that area.<\/p>\n
Invest 93L is forecast to move toward the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday.\u00a0 If the broad area over low pressure moves over land that will prevent it from developing until it moves back over water.\u00a0 Numerical models are guiding that the disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone when the area of low pressure moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.\u00a0 The upper level ridge is forecast to extend over the southeastern Gulf and if that happens the wind shear could decrease enough to allow development to occur.\u00a0 Invest 93L could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico.<\/p>\n
The southwesterly flow over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to turn Invest 93L toward the northeast.\u00a0 On its anticipated track the system could reach the west coast of Florida near Cedar Key late Monday or early Tuesday.\u00a0 The primary risk is likely to be locally heavy rain.\u00a0 However, the coast in that area is very susceptible to storm surge and there could be some rise in the water level.\u00a0 The National Hurricane Center has tentatively tasked a reconnaissance plane to investigate Invest 93L on Sunday, if necessary.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A tropical disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Yucatan peninsula is moving northwest and it could develop into a tropical cyclone when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.\u00a0 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated the disturbance as Invest 93L and NHC is putting the probability of development into a tropical […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,2],"tags":[383,384,58,138,51,38,382,113,112,53],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2474"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2474"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2474\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2475,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2474\/revisions\/2475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}