Although Tropical Depression Nine did not strengthen on Tuesday afternoon, guidance from numerical models suggested it could be stronger when it eventually reaches the coast of Florida.\u00a0 As a result, the National Hurricane Center at 5:00 p.m. EDT issued a Hurricane Watch for the portion of the Florida coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass.\u00a0 A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to the Walton County\/Bay County line.<\/p>\n
At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 24.4\u00b0N and longitude 87.3\u00b0W which put it about 345 miles (555 km) west of Key West, Florida.\u00a0 It was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km\/h).\u00a0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km\/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km\/h).\u00a0 The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.<\/p>\n
The circulation of Tropical Depression Nine is not currently well organized.\u00a0 The surface center is located northwest of an apparent mid-level center.\u00a0 Upper level divergence is not well developed.\u00a0 The development of thunderstorms has been cyclical during the past several days.\u00a0 Clusters of thunderstorms developed south and east of the center and then they weaken.\u00a0 A few hours later more thunderstorms would develop, persist for a few hours and weaken again.\u00a0 It appears that new thunderstorms are developing northeast and southwest of the surface center which would be a change from the previous pattern.<\/p>\n
The vertical structure of Tropical Depression Nine has been out of sync.\u00a0 As mentioned above, the surface center was northwest of the mid-level center.\u00a0 Both the surface and mid-level centers have been located on the western edge of a larger upper level high.\u00a0 Clockwise flow around the upper high has been creating vertical wind shear, which has prevented the development of a vertically coherent structure in the depression.\u00a0 Despite the effect of the wind shear and the lack of a coherent vertical structure, the surface center has managed to persist and become a little more organized each day.<\/p>\n
Tropical Depression Nine is moving through an environment that is currently marginal for intensification.\u00a0 It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31\u00b0C.\u00a0 So, there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean.\u00a0 The vertical wind shear mentioned previously is the primary factor inhibiting intensification.\u00a0 However, as Tropical Depression Nine moves north, if is forecast to move into an area where the upper level winds are not as strong.\u00a0 If that happens, then the depression will strengthen.\u00a0 As the depression becomes more organized, the rate of intensification could increase and the depression could become a hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.<\/p>\n
An upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. has been blocking the northward movement of Tropical Depression Nine.\u00a0 An upper level trough approaching from the west is expected to weaken the ridge.\u00a0 As the ridge weakens, The depression will be able to move north.\u00a0 Eventually in a couple of days, the upper level trough is expected to steer the depression more toward the northeast.\u00a0 On its anticipated track the depression could be approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon.<\/p>\n
The northeastern Gulf Coast is very susceptible to storm surges and a surge is the greatest risk.\u00a0 Locally heavy rain could cause some flooding, and there could be some minor wind damage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Although Tropical Depression Nine did not strengthen on Tuesday afternoon, guidance from numerical models suggested it could be stronger when it eventually reaches the coast of Florida.\u00a0 As a result, the National Hurricane Center at 5:00 p.m. EDT issued a Hurricane Watch for the portion of the Florida coast from Anclote River to Indian Pass.\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,2],"tags":[491,492,384,51,98,100,99,490],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2895"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2895"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2895\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2896,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2895\/revisions\/2896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}