Tropical Cyclone Enawo formed north of La Reunion on Friday.\u00a0 At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enawo was located at latitude 13.2\u00b0S and longitude 56.2\u00b0E which put it about 520 miles (835 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion.\u00a0 Enawo was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h.\u00a0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km\/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km\/h).\u00a0 The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.<\/p>\n
An area of low pressure organized slowly over the southwest Indian Ocean during the past few days.\u00a0 Bands of thunderstorms formed west of the center of circulation and some of the bands began to wrap closer to the center on Friday.\u00a0 The low pressure system exhibited the characteristic structure of a developing tropical cyclone and it was designated Tropical Cyclone Enawo.\u00a0 Although there are more thunderstorms near the center of circulation, the distribution of the storms is still asymmetrical.\u00a0 There are many more thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.\u00a0 The asymmetry probably indicates that some vertical wind shear is slowing the organization of the circulation.<\/p>\n
Tropical Cyclone Enawo will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.\u00a0 It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30\u00b0C.\u00a0 Enawo is northwest of an upper level ridge which is generating easterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.\u00a0 The upper level ridge could be the source of the vertical wind shear that is slowing the intensification of the tropical cyclone.\u00a0 The upper level wind shear could decrease during the weekend and Tropical Cyclone Enawo is likely to intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane\/typhoon.\u00a0 Once an inner core become well established at the center of circulation, a period of rapid intensification may be possible.<\/p>\n
A subtropical ridge located southeast of Enawo is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.\u00a0 Guidance from the numerical models is divergent about the future strength of the ridge.\u00a0 Some of the models, like the Global Forecasting System,\u00a0 are predicting a weaker ridge and turn Tropical Cyclone Enawo more toward the south.\u00a0 Other models, such as the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting System model, strengthen the subtropical ridge and steer Tropical Cyclone Enawo west toward northeast Madagascar.\u00a0 Given the uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecasts, interests in the southwest Indian Ocean should monitor Tropical Cyclone Enawo closely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tropical Cyclone Enawo formed north of La Reunion on Friday.\u00a0 At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enawo was located at latitude 13.2\u00b0S and longitude 56.2\u00b0E which put it about 520 miles (835 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion.\u00a0 Enawo was moving toward the southwest at 4 m.p.h.\u00a0 The maximum […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,2],"tags":[333,84,635,74,334,634],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3691"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3691"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3691\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3692,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3691\/revisions\/3692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}