A small, but well organized area of low pressure developed just to the south of Java on Sunday.\u00a0 The low pressure system is currently designated as Invest 95S, but it could become a tropical cyclone during the next several days.\u00a0 At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Invest 95S was located at latitude 8.9\u00b0S and longitude 109.8\u00b0E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) southwest of Yogyakarta, Indonesia.\u00a0 It was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km\/h).\u00a0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km\/h) and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km\/h).\u00a0 The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.<\/p>\n
The circulation of Invest 95S is small but well formed.\u00a0 There is a distinct low level center of circulation.\u00a0 Two well formed narrow rainbands wrapped around the southern and northeastern sides of the center.\u00a0 Other rainbands developed just outside the core of the circulation.\u00a0 Storms near the center of circulation were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping out mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease.<\/p>\n
Invest 95S will move through an environment that is mostly favorable for intensification.\u00a0 It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29\u00b0C.\u00a0 Invest 95S is near the center of an upper level ridge.\u00a0 The upper level winds blowing over the top of the low pressure system are weak and there is not a lot of vertical wind shear.\u00a0 The proximity of the circulation to Java is the only factor likely to inhibit intensification.\u00a0 If the center of circulation remains south of Java, then there is a good chance it could intensify into a tropical cyclone.<\/p>\n
The ridge north of Invest 95S is steering the system slowly toward the northeast and a general easterly motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.\u00a0 Guidance from numerical models diverges in a day or so.\u00a0 Some models to suggest the northeasterly motion will continue and the low pressure system will move across Java.\u00a0 Other models predict a turn toward the south in a day or so.\u00a0 There is a high degree of uncertainty about the future track of Invest 95S.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A small, but well organized area of low pressure developed just to the south of Java on Sunday.\u00a0 The low pressure system is currently designated as Invest 95S, but it could become a tropical cyclone during the next several days.\u00a0 At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Invest 95S was located at latitude […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,48,2],"tags":[891,78,894,70,890,893,892,94],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5200"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5200"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5201,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5200\/revisions\/5201"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}