A number of numerical models have been predicting the development of some type of low pressure system east of Florida this week.\u00a0 The surface pressure has decreased by about 4 mb during the past 24 hours at several locations in the northern Bahamas, which could be an early sign that a surface low is in the formative stages.\u00a0 When the low forms, it will likely be classified as either an extratropical cyclone (a typical mid-latitude low with a cold core) or a subtropical cyclone (a type of hybrid low with some tropical characteristics).\u00a0 An upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is generating strong southwesterly winds across the region.\u00a0 At the same time a surface high pressure system north of the area is producing northeasterly winds in the lower levels.\u00a0 The combination of southwesterly winds in the upper levels and northeasterly winds in the lower levels means the vertical wind shear over the likely development region is very high.\u00a0 Since tropical cyclones form in regions of little vertical wind shear, the low is not likely to be a tropical cyclone when it develops.<\/p>\n
However, the surface high north of the system is likely to inhibit the northward motion of the low.\u00a0 If the low moves slowly while it is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures, the thunderstorms in the circulation could release enough latent energy to warm the upper levels of the circulation.\u00a0 If, at the same time, an upper level ridge over the Central U.S. moves eastward and causes the upper level wind speed to diminish, then the wind shear over the low could be reduced.\u00a0 Less shear and warmer temperatures in the upper levels could cause the structure of the low to taken on a more tropical form.\u00a0 It is possible that it could make a transition to a tropical cyclone if the environment is just right.<\/p>\n
The forecast track of the low is uncertain because it is unknown precisely where the low will form initially.\u00a0 It does appear that after the low forms it will move northward slowly for several days.\u00a0 The expected track could bring the low near the Mid-Atlantic Coast by the end of the week.\u00a0 Given the Sea Surface Temperatures, the wind shear, and the time of year, the low is likely to be be of tropical storm strength by the end of the week.\u00a0 However, both the track and intensity forecasts will be highly uncertain until the low pressure system organizes.\u00a0 Even if the center of the low stays off the coast, northeasterly winds at the surface could generate some beach erosion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A number of numerical models have been predicting the development of some type of low pressure system east of Florida this week.\u00a0 The surface pressure has decreased by about 4 mb during the past 24 hours at several locations in the northern Bahamas, which could be an early sign that a surface low is in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,2],"tags":[51,98,100,99,97],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/750"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=750"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/750\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":751,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/750\/revisions\/751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jayhobgood.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}